Itstrainingtime

It's going to rain tonight in the LSV - thus ending a remarkable stretch of weather that has been relatively the same each day for nearly 2 weeks. Of course, the majority of the precip falls during darkness, so by tomorrow we resume our stretch of what we've had since the beginning of the year.

We just can't get a wintry threat inside 7-10 days. Hopefully a piece of energy times right soon for us. 

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe this is our January thaw week? I'm ready, I know we need to have patience but this week is just one day after another the same weather. 

I feel like it's been this way since the start of the new year. 

My daughter works outside a lot and asks me every Sunday what the weather's going to be like for the upcoming week.  The past 2 Sundays I've told her to go outside...what you see and feel now is what you'll see and feel all week. 

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

can only hope to get clipped w/ NS being predominant player, and hopefully we'll be surprised by one of 2.  Like I said the other week, at least areas w/ snow wont lose it.  Would be nice to get some before pattern breaks down.  NOTHING is harder to bear than going through a cold dry period, only to have snow to rain event, as pattern relaxes and warms up.  I hate that.

Yep, we need a high ratio fluff bomb straight from Manitoba. I'm far more partial to Maulers from Manitoba than clippers from Alberta.  

After looking at long range guidance from the overnight runs - I don't see much to be encouraged about. This is a rotten time to go into an extended period of dry weather, but the southern stream looks to be predominately closed for business going forward. 

33 minutes ago, canderson said:

Snowing at my parents in Texas - 2-4” expected. 

Also snowing in Austin - a pretty rare event there. 

Actually saw a report of Thundersnow in Austin...hope Cantore was there!

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Not much to track so I thought I’d post this.  It was number 43 in the nesis list.

Thank you for posting that. I always appreciate looking at those maps. 

We can hope that this 10 day image changes for the better...soon. 

Just now, paweather said:

Do you see a Pattern in this forecast?

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. North wind around 6 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 23. North wind around 8 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 40. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind 7 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph.

Sunday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 42.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 41.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 27.

Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 44.

You need to move south! Mine has rain/snow for Tuesday.  

4 minutes ago, paweather said:

I guess it is time to move to Texas or the Carolinas for snow. 

Western part of North Carolina is a great place for snow - get out west of Wilkesboro and that area averages more snow in the winter than we do. They get upslope, far enough south to get into southern stream action, and far enough west to avoid changeover. My wife wants to retire to Boone - we'll see...

MDT finished 2020 with an average temperature of 56.6, which ties 1998 as the warmest year on record in Harrisburg. 

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

From WGAL:

I've always found it fascinating that Lancaster-based WGAL uses info from Harrisburg and not Lancaster. At least in most of Lanco, 1996 dropped more snow here than 2016 did. The 1983 storm dropped remarkably similar amounts in both locals - I measured 24.8" in the '83 storm. I don't remember 1945.  

At the very least, it's been a beautiful winter day. So nice to see nothing but blue skies - good for the soul today. 

As Big Ben of the Steelers would say, the Euro looks like poo. 

12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

It stopped snowing around this time in the afternoon Sunday. It has remained cloudy and literally within a degree or two of 35ºF in the 72 hours since then. I dunno about any of you guys, but I'd actually like to see some sun and clear weather for a couple days. 

That's what I was saying earlier. This cloudy weather is somewhat depressing. 

28 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I think the snow will come. So many years where it looked cold and dry and everyone complained but eventually the snow came. Let’s get the cold air first.

Having established cold is one less thing to be worried about for sure. At the same time, we don't really need "cold" right now - we can swing this with average temps for the next several weeks. In January and the first half of February, I want moisture first and cold second. As long as we don't see cutters the next month or so, I like our chances. Get something under us and we'll likely be happy. If it's too cold, it's likely going to be too dry. 

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

1996!

Woke up on Saturday morning to a forecast of 2-4". Went to bed that night with a call for 12"+. Woke up Sunday morning and it was 20-30". By afternoon, it was up to 24-36". 

Final total = 30.5". 

1 minute ago, paweather said:

In my mind, January has become the most boring month here. I would love to just track a rain storm in this month if nothing else. 

25 years ago today, our weather was anything but boring.   

I've gone on record here previously stating that I enjoy a nice dark, dreary day - but at some point can we at least have SOME sunshine? We're on a roll lately with cloudy days...

44 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

A couple of days ago I woke up to about 0.2" of snow that unexpectedly fell over night.  Funny thing is I don't remember which day that was precisely.  It was close to the end of the year, but before the 31st.  Any idea what day that might have been?  Adding in that 0.2" plus the 0.1" from today, that brings my seasonal total to 11.0".  (You can see it down at the bottom of my signature.)  I was intending to update that prior tiny coating but forgot to, and now I don't remember the day.

I posted my question on my phone and couldn't see your signature. Thank you for responding. I'm sitting at 10.8" so those 2 small events you've had recently has put you on top.

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Well, so much for the 2 to 3 inches of snow.  Those wet snow bombs (which did look amazing) only lasted for maybe 15 minutes tops.  It was enough to accumulate about 0.1" with a tiny white coating.  Then, it stopped.  Then, the rain came back and deposited about another 0.07" of pure liquid.  On to the next one.

What is your seasonal total for snowfall to date?

18z GFS illustrates my fear from this morning perfectly. Northern stream energy pushes our system out to sea way south of us. Not saying that will happen, but the idea is gaining momentum...

All rain here other than a few sleet pellets earlier. 

Rain. 35 and dark, dank, dreary, drippy, and damp.

@showmethesnow great post this morning. Well thought and laid out in a way that is easy to understand. I guess we differ on thought regarding the northern stream impulse- you are correct in saying that it could kill this for us, which is why I said it would need to dig under and phase in. Otherwise, it's game over.

46 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

@Itstrainingtime  

@pasnownut

What are your thoughts on the upcoming storm chances later this week & next week?

I'm casually interested. Right now I'm concerned about both temps and the track. If we can get some northern stream energy to phase in south of our latitude, it's game on. I'm just not convinced that happens, and without it we'll be dealing with either a suppressed system, a warm one, or both.