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HillsdaleMIWeather

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Everything posted by HillsdaleMIWeather

  1. I think we all can agree that this was one of the most underwhelming storms of all time The rain underperformed The ice underperformed (not complaining about this part) The winds underperformed Hell even the severe threat down south under performed to an extent
  2. 0Z GEM stays mostly all snow, with only a brief flip to rain then back
  3. Literally the opposite of this event today, ice then rain instead of rain then ice
  4. IWX now thinking even their wind advisory is gonna bust
  5. 18Z GFS would dump 5 to 6 inches of snow, a couple hours of freezing rain, then rain, followed by more snow
  6. The NAM gets the ice worryingly south again, into Indiana. Worried we might get caught with our pants down here
  7. 0Z GFS has an opposite to our current storm event: Starts as snow, changes to ice, ends as rain
  8. Honestly worried that if this minor south trend continues places around here could get caught in ice unexpectedly
  9. Ice zone creeping back south on the NAM, hopefully not a last second trend
  10. When I made this threads subtitle I didn't think this much rain
  11. Really tough situation for IWX about the MI counties, could get nuclear ice or all rain
  12. IWX pointing out that the NAM is bad for ice throughout their northern CWA, the just above ground temps are below freezing Have favored the cooler models for the shallow cold air Saturday that originally included just the GFS, but now the NAM is showing a very shallow layer of cold air just above the surface that will likely be below freezing for several hours. Believe the greatest winter weather impact if the surface temperatures are cold enough will be from freezing rain. NAM BUFKIT 00Z and 06Z runs showed several hours of freezing rain Saturday into Saturday night. After coordination with Chicago and Grand Rapids NWS offices have greatly increased ice amounts. Given the strong upper level system just reaching the Calif coast, concern that upper level sampling of this system may still be lacking, so confidence was not high enough to post a winter storm watch for ice. Otherwise, Sunday will be dry with highs in the 30s. Travel late Saturday and Saturday night may become hazardous depending on weather types and pavement temperatures.
  13. Ice line is further south then 12Z. Literally going to be a thread the needle event with the changing models
  14. This is one of those "unlikely but holy shit if it happened" runs Nearly 2 inches of ice in Southern Lower and Northern IN, with ice still falling
  15. GRR, DTX and IWX's MI counties get blown up with ice on this run
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