The Iceman

Looks like dry air wins the day around 95. Congrats s nj, you guys deserve it.

I think east of 95 and south of 195 is going to be the dividing line between the haves and have nots. Would love to see another tick NW at 00z but thinking my area has a better shot of smoking cirrus than decent accumulation as of now. Really like mt hollys forecast, thinking they are going to nail this one. PHL is going to be a really tough forecast. Could see the airport getting 4-6” while most areas of the city only see 1-2”. Going to be a tight gradient for sure. We will know by tomorrow morning how things are going to go down lol

I've pretty much thrown in the towel for any hopes of a normal winter here. At this point, just hoping to avoid a repeat of the 2019-20 complete disaster(1.5"). I'll pretty much be happy with one 4-6" type event and maybe a few C-1" minor events. If we make it through this month with zero accumulating(> 1") events though, we might be looking at record level's of futility again. Nina Feb's are always warm here. Would be pretty ridiculous to see 2 bottom 3 winters of all time in a 3 year period. You have to go back to 1949 -1951 to get 2 winters with <5" of snow in a 3 year period(and those were back to back, 1949 -50 had 2" and 50-51 had 4.2". There's never been a period in PHL history that had 2 <1" seasons in 3 years. Still early to be thinking record futility but with no real significant snow chances in sight, it is starting to come into mind. I said in my contest post that it was first accumulating snow > Trace though it should have been > 1". I(and many others in this subforum) haven't seen that yet. I don't really count Dec. 8 or 27th as actual events as they were light snow showers with no accumulation.

Looking like all virga here. Returns getting ripped to shreds as it comes down off the plateau as predicted.

Pretty sure we had one event of 1-3” in mid January that was melted by the next day and that was that lol

Will this winter be as bad as 19-20? No snow chances in sight.

That’s absolutely false. We had the wettest July on record and none of that precipitation was from tropical storms, it was all from the pattern in place. You your narrative of the epic may drought went completely off the rails even without the tropical storms. Btw if it’s not going to snow, the ground isn’t going to epically freeze for the water to run off. This isn’t New England. You’re not going to get 1-2 ft of hard frozen ground with lows in the upper 20s every night and highs well above freezing. And if seasonal snowfall was such a vital part of groundwater replenishment in these parts, why wasn’t there an epic drought back in 19-20 when most areas had single digit snowfall for the year? I predict your call of epic drought conditions will go the same way as the call back in May. You cannot start calling for a potential mega drought after 30 days of slightly below normal precipitation. It’s ludicrous especially coming on the heels of one of the wettest years on record and several precipitation events on the near horizon. It doesn’t look dry the next 15 days, snow or not.

You said this last may and we had like the wettest summer on record

Yup, was hoping we’d at least score a minor event but not looking likely. I think below average winter is looking very likely. As long as the pna stays negative, even a -nao/-ao isn’t going to save us, just make it so that any system that stays south will be weak and sheared out. Unless the pac side changes radically, this winter is looking like a dud. Don’t think it will be all that warm though, just more of the same of what we’ve seen. Cold and dry followed by warm up, rain, and repeat. Hopefully we see a few front end thumps… root for a weak nino next year…

20-21st seems more like a N and W event imo. Looks like a classic rain along 95 with snow in upper bucks/lehigh. No high to keep the cold air in place along the coastal plain. But if the long range looks verify, late dec/early jan should be VERY fun. I know this is an OP look, but this is a great pattern even though we may be risking suppression. Obviously would like to see the ridge in the west pop a bit more but that is a strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO look. Has some ensemble support too but the ensembles still hold on to the -PNA which throws a wrench in things but would still be more white than wet.

Because I’d rather live in hell than a place like Altoona.

I think the most impressive thing about the record highs yesterday was that there wasn’t an ounce of sunshine at least in my area. It was cloudy all day. If we had gotten the sun out, places probably would of hit 80.

12z GEFS looks better for 12/19 - 12/20 at H5 than the OP imo. Better heights in Greenland plus the trough out west isn't dug as far south. IMO that may be enough to flatten the SE ridge enough to give most of us a thump on that storm. Still 9 days out, but not a bad signal at this range. Will have to see how it evolves this week but it's at least our first real chance at accumulating snow this year even if the most likely scenario is snow to rain.

12/19-20 may be something to watch for a thump to light rain event. Temps are marginal but with a strong high in quebec, the set up could easily yield a solid thump especially for NW areas but even 95 could see some accumulation with some slight adjustments mainly to the SE ridge. If the front on next thurs/fri can beat it down a bit more than progged, it may be the first real threat of the year. Still in the day 8-9 range so a lot can change obviously but something to keep an eye on.

What are the cheapest flights you've found? I would love to do this for my bday but everything I'm seeing is $500+ round trip and I don't think that's in the cards just before Christmas.

Looks like this warm up will only last through next week. GEFS and EPS both have building heights in the Greenland area around D10 along with a -EPO. While there may be a lag in our sensible weather due to the SE ridge needing to be beaten down, you can see a light at the end of the tunnel. End of the 06z GEFS looks pretty decent. Way better than the shutout look of next week. I was skeptical this pattern would break down this quickly but guidance is showing that to be the case. Hopefully it stays consistent but overall we should be tracking some threats possibly as early as the 20th.

Maybe a slight risk of tor's in this area tomorrow too depending when the front comes through. Right now looks like timing is poor for that but something to watch with the dynamics in place

Anyone else’s township brine their roadways for tomorrows “event”? I lol’d pretty hard seeing that. Must be itching to use their winter budget or get overtime for the holidays.

Honestly I'd rather it be in the 60s/70s so I could at least continue golfing so that my game doesn't go to shit again by spring

Not Christmas, but still lol seems like the pattern change to -EPO is being pushed back which is not really that unexpected. I don't think things improve until January but we'll see. We really need a -AO to deliver cold air from the -epo and it doesn't look like modeling is quite there yet. Seems like -EPO/+AO/+NAO which would likely just be more of the same but not as torchy. Not a great pattern for snow. Sucks that we're probably going to punt the first half to 2/3rd's of the month with not even a shot of measurable snow in the LR. Hell even flurries seem like stretch tomorrow now.

Same I’ll be happy with mood flakes but I won’t be surprised if we don’t even get that. Just such a dry system, I could totally see that .05 of liquid just falling as virga. At least 2nd half of December may be salvageable if LR guidance is as on point as it was with the crap pattern we are about to enter. Looks like a 2013-14 esque -epo pattern potentially. Much better than the close the blinds look we have coming next week. I would watch the December 28-Jan 2 period as I’ll be in Florida

Here’s the 3k

Euro/UKMET largely nothing for all other than a few mood flakes. That's the direction I'm leaning as well. I'll be surprised if the 1-2" shown on the GFS/12kNAM come to fruition. Just moving too fast and precip doesn't seem robust at all not to mention all the dry air.

Meso's are at range but they seem pretty unenthused by this event. Thinking it will be mostly snow TV for most with maybe some areas seeing a C-1".