snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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Which would not fit November climo at all. The westerlies are normally way too far south at that point
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This fall (really since August 20th) has made 01-02 look like the wettest fall in history
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@Bluewave So shocking, MJO 4-6 dominating. Here we go again….
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Obviously November to be determined but the seasonal forecasts that had a cold and wet fall with lots of storminess are a real huge bust to this point
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The absolute worst case scenario is a persistent Bering Sea vortex. Complete shutdown pattern. Even an AK vortex isn’t as bad and can be somewhat workable for you guys up there at your latitude….
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I’ve never had well water so I know nothing about it. Just repeating what he told me last night
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We have been a desert since August 20th and there’s no end in sight. One of the guys I work with is on well water and he said this is the 1st time in over 20 years that his well is starting to run low. He turned his lawn sprinklers off because of it
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Even more troubling than that map showing the ridiculous dryness since late August, this is definitely something you don’t want to see. The ensembles are developing a huge Bering Sea vortex at the beginning of November. If that’s a sign of things to come, ooof
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And bone dry as far as the eye can see on all ensembles
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IMO 16-17 was helped by a neutral/slight positive PDO
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Getting hit by a hurricane, death and destruction is fun?? Huh?
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The Euro suite has been underestimating +EPO’s and showing huge -EPO ridges over AK that never actually happen for several years now. The beat goes on
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Westerly anomalies behind a fast moving MJO wave is not going to result in a full scale shift of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. You would need STRONG, sustained, honest to goodness WWBs (i.e. El Niño) to do that. We are obviously not getting an El Niño this winter or even a warm-La Nada. All that’s going to happen (and is being shown) is transient, temporary westerly anomalies behind MJO wave convection, not true WWBs. This is not even going to be close to a true trade wind reversal/WWB event, like not even in the ballpark. Webb clearly eludes to this if you read the entirety of his tweet. Once the MJO goes back to the eastern IO and Maritime Continent, phases 4-6, which is what the models are showing, EWBs and cooling is going to start anew. The MEI, RONI, PDO, IOD, PMM and SOI are all deep into La Niña mode. All one has to do is look at the global long wave circulation and OLR over the last several months till now to see that the atmosphere is very clearly into a La Niña state. And the subsurface under region 3.4 is still cold
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It would not surprise me at all if the drought continues right through November, in fact I think it’s very likely
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The arctic air is staying locked on the other side of the hemisphere through at least the start of November. If we reach the end of next month and it’s still there with no signs of it migrating to our side of the pole that will be a very bad omen. A continued drought through the end of November would be another bad omen
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The new extended ensembles are bone dry for early-mid November in the east….
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The new extended ensembles are drier than a frigging bone for early-mid November in the east
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I was joking with you and Anthony about 11-12. I do think 01-02 may be an analog though given the solar max/very high solar flux, -PDO, -ENSO, cold GOA and Bering Sea and the very dry fall
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That is the only thing “saving” it right now. The reserve water supplies are still good. This dry pattern didn’t start until just after mid-August. If the entire spring and summer was dry we’d be screwed by now. That said, if this continues next month then we have a dry winter, we have problems come spring…..big problems
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We are seeing huge diurnal swings (similar to the desert SW) because of the drought pattern over the last few months. Soil moisture is way, way below normal. Dry ground, low humidity, radiates heat very easily, unlike saturated ground which retains it in the boundary layer
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Ditto for the GEPS. Dry as far as the eye can see. It has been so anomalously dry since late August it’s not funny. It seems we have gone into a dry feedback cycle, something we really haven’t seen in the northeast in a very long time. If we get to the end of November and it’s still status quo, it’s probably a real bad sign for precip this winter. Patterns this anomalous usually don’t magically do a 180 and flip come December
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Are you naturally this stupid or did you have to take a class?
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Don’t even bother. He has no idea what he’s talking about and is nothing but a troll
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My analog for this winter is 2011-2012. That would fit perfect :-)
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In that post I stated clearly “for those who follow it, I don’t”. I know some on here don’t have twitter so I gave a FWIW update in case they were wondering what Cohen’s thoughts were at the time, in case they were interested. When his theory first came out, I thought it had validity, then I saw the SAI’s record over the last 15+ years and changed my opinion Edit: @George001 How do you explain the SAI’s miserable failure for the 14-15 winter? Record high SAI yet one of the strongest ++AO/++NAO winters on record? By Judah’s theory, that should have been a -AO/-NAO orgy
