snowman19
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Everything posted by snowman19
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This solar cycle is really taking its time to descend. September finished with sunspots at 135 for the month and the flux that started in August continues
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The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point
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The -IOD is enhacing it
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Honestly, why even bother trying to fact check what that asshole says?
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This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…
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The new CANSIPS is showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime this winter
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Unlike last year when we had the strong +AAM, this year the AAM is ridiculously negative. We are very clearly in a La Niña atmospheric state this time around @bluewave @donsutherland1
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07-08 was a shit show south of New England
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This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition
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It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim
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Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update
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This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see
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Not that I’ve seen yet. I’ll let you know. The only thing he’s really commented on is that he doesn’t believe the “warm blob” is going to last into the winter and thinks a classic ‘cold horseshoe’ -PDO alignment is going to develop
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24-25 was weak La Niña IMO
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I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not
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It’s been a real long time since we’ve seen a true predominant +EPO winter. Honestly since 11-12. Ever since then we default to -EPO several times during the winter and haven’t really seen a +EPO “lock in” like that since
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The “warm blob” has been taking a big hit over the last few weeks. Now the question becomes does it come back by December (i.e. 2013)? Or do we see a classic “cold horseshoe” negative PDO alignment develop like Paul Roundy thinks is going to happen?
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I think what saved 16-17 from being a complete dud was the PDO. That winter had a neutral PDO, coming off of the ++PDO the winter before with the super Nino
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Even if we go above 100 ACE, which seems likely now, I very seriously doubt we go above normal and the ACE connection to winter is extremely questionable anyway
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@Stormchaserchuck1 Here comes your warm/dry -PDO October
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We disagree on poleward ridging. -QBO/-ENSO supports a destabilized tropical tropopause, on equator forcing/convection and a flat Aleutian ridge. Not saying no poleward ridging at all but as much as we saw last winter? Nope IMO
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The ACE relationship to winter is extremely sketchy at best
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I don’t think we’re going to see anywhere near the amount of poleward ridging that we did last winter
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Ok? So if I’m wrong I’m wrong. Congrats
