snowman19

The models were real bad in the long range with the MJO last December. They kept showing an amplified MJO wave going 8-1-2 which obviously didn’t happen

1995 and 2010 were also solar minimums

You can take 1983 off the list. That was a volcanic winter/volcanic stratosphere. (El Chichón; VEI-5 eruption in 1982)

The extremely persistent -AAM continues….it simply doesn’t get anymore “La Niña” than we are now….

Soaring +SOI, cooling subsurface (-3C) and surface SSTs, constructive interference with the -IOD/-PDO and the continued enhanced trades/EWBs in the CPAC leads me to believe this event doesn’t peak until either the tail end of this month or more likely early-mid December. As I said yesterday….a very well coupled canonical La Niña system is in place

I agree. We are and have been in a very well coupled La Niña, both atmospherically and oceanically. I see absolutely no evidence at all to expect anything but a canonical La Niña pattern through March. It’s been following the classic La Niña footprint since the start of October and still is. Even if we go cold-neutral come January or February/March, there is no reason to believe the Niña pattern is going to somehow magically just instantly go away. There is always a lag of months between when ENSO phases switch and when you see the effects on the atmosphere

One thing is for sure, this La Niña is and has been exactly mimicking a classic canonical La Niña pattern to a tee. I see absolutely no reason to think it’s going to deviate at all from such in the coming months

The strongest -IOD since 1996 is earth-shattering

I would agree. @40/70 Benchmark has mentioned a few times that the indicators are not screaming KU’s barreling up the coast and dumping on the I-95 corridor. Especially with a very muted STJ (Niña/-PMM)

Not earth shattering. I don’t think anyone here expected a severely negative PDO going into winter. Everyone I’ve seen has been expecting a rise from the severely negative levels. The only unrealistic expectations I’ve seen have been on Twitter….we had some twitterologists back in the spring expecting that we would be in an El Niño/+PDO with a “grand solar minimum” right now….

@Bluewave

I was going to say it’s been a long time since we’ve seen this much cooling in the NE PAC and it’s still ongoing

Those enhanced trades in the CPAC are destructively interfering with MJO propagation, which is why it has really slowed down. While I believe it does propagate into phase 6, I have serious doubts as to what happens once it starts getting into phase 7…

It’s showing an east-based -NAO for December

Agreed. Unless we see a major SSWE and SPV destruction or close to it, I don’t see how we avoid a canonical La Niña mid-late January and especially February and March

Verbatim it looks like a classic canonical “front-loaded” La Niña progression

I wasn’t insinuating that 2nd year Nina’s are bad. It’s 3rd year triple dip Nina’s that tend to be bad. As far as the IOD I would not say it’s voodoo. Definitely not voodoo like the October Siberian snowcover debacle at least

I forget which winter it was recently, I’m sure you remember, but the models kept incorrectly showing high amplitude MJO waves barreling right through phases 8-1-2 over and over all winter long (EPS in particular), in the long-range which never actually happened. They also kept showing phantom SSWEs and record weakening of the SPV, which also never happened. It was brutal, everyone kept falling for it….

I’m not saying that we won’t see +PNA intervals, I’m just doubting that they are very frequent/long in duration. We both agree that we won’t see a 2022-23 style nuclear RNA. My reasoning: 2nd year Niña and the continued North PAC cooling since September 1st. Guess we’ll see what happens soon

I agree with probably 95% of your thoughts on this winter…however, I do part ways on the PNA. I think it’s going to be significantly more negative than you are thinking….no, not 2022-23 negative obviously, but yea

The BOM model takes it weakly into phase 7 before it dies out

I guess some people just looked at the -AO/-NAO part of Eric’s post and looked no further. He has some real ugly analog years in there….1988, 1999, 2011…. See:

This feature appeared at the very beginning of September and has basically been semi-permanent since. The models continue it right through mid-November and beyond. Should this continue into the tail end of this month, I think that would be rather significant. @donsutherland1 @bluewave EDIT: @mitchnick Wrong. He’s also a meteorologist. Guess you didn’t bother to read that part in his Twitter profile

My best guess right now is that it dies when it hits phase 7 then ends up back in the IO