snowman19
-
Posts
9,348 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by snowman19
-
@Stormchaserchuck1 Some NAO and AO musings
-
@bluewave How is your MJO signal shaping up so far this month? It looks like the MJO is finally going to propagate eastward out of the IO to the Maritime Continent (phases 5-6) at the end of this month, not very strong amplitude however….
-
Verbatim that’s showing a very muted STJ which would not be a surprise at all
-
@GaWx Have you seen the new EURO seasonal maps yet? I just read that they are out and are showing a prominent Aleutian ridge winter, but I have yet to see the actual maps posted
-
The seasonal models are showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime. Not saying they’re right, but it would fit -ENSO climo
-
It’s a kid playing meteorologist on social media. It’s become a playground for weenie mets looking for subscription money, likes, follows, views and retweets and children playing weatherman
-
This solar cycle is really taking its time to descend. September finished with sunspots at 135 for the month and the flux that started in August continues
-
The new AI model runs want absolutely nothing at all to do with Atlantic tropical development the next couple of weeks. They actually did a very good job with the last 2 hurricanes, insisting that they were never going to even come close to making landfall in the SE. They actually schooled the operationals and ensembles of the other models. Are they onto something this time too? All we can do is wait and see at this point
-
The -IOD is enhacing it
-
Honestly, why even bother trying to fact check what that asshole says?
-
-
This -AAM regime is extremely impressive. A 180 degree difference from what we were seeing last year at this time…
-
The new CANSIPS is showing more of an Aleutian ridge regime than an Alaskan ridge regime this winter
-
Unlike last year when we had the strong +AAM, this year the AAM is ridiculously negative. We are very clearly in a La Niña atmospheric state this time around @bluewave @donsutherland1
-
07-08 was a shit show south of New England
-
This cooling actually started before 15 days ago. Now we watch, either the warm blob comes back by December (2013), or Paul Roundy’s opinion that a classic cold horseshoe develops by winter comes to fruition
-
It also looks like some phase 5 forcing on the CANSIPS anomaly maps. But yea, 5-6-7 look dominant verbatim
-
Yep. It did get cooler for Dec-Mar in the northeast since the last update, but boy does it have a strong dry signal from November-March in the east, with the lone exception of eastern New England for March like you said. That dry signal increased since the last update
-
This drought situation is actually worse than last year at this time. We have been completely devoid of widespread heavy rains in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic since late July. October looks dry as far as the eye can see
-
Not that I’ve seen yet. I’ll let you know. The only thing he’s really commented on is that he doesn’t believe the “warm blob” is going to last into the winter and thinks a classic ‘cold horseshoe’ -PDO alignment is going to develop
-
24-25 was weak La Niña IMO
-
I never said I think we are going to have a +EPO winter, I simply pointed out that we haven’t had a wall to wall +EPO winter since 11-12. Not sure why you think I was implying that for this winter, which I certainly am not
-
It’s been a real long time since we’ve seen a true predominant +EPO winter. Honestly since 11-12. Ever since then we default to -EPO several times during the winter and haven’t really seen a +EPO “lock in” like that since
-
The “warm blob” has been taking a big hit over the last few weeks. Now the question becomes does it come back by December (i.e. 2013)? Or do we see a classic “cold horseshoe” negative PDO alignment develop like Paul Roundy thinks is going to happen?
-
I think what saved 16-17 from being a complete dud was the PDO. That winter had a neutral PDO, coming off of the ++PDO the winter before with the super Nino
