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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC
  2. snowman19
    Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095
  3. snowman19
    @bluewave Holy ++PMM
  4. snowman19
    If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
  5. snowman19
    1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter
  6. snowman19
    These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
  7. snowman19
    The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……
  8. snowman19
  9. snowman19
    Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat
  10. snowman19
    @Bluewave
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  17. snowman19
    @StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….
  18. snowman19
    Ok Patrick Star lmfaooooo
  19. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust…
  20. snowman19
    Wow….
  21. snowman19
    You remind me of Patrick Star from SpongeBob SquarePants
  22. snowman19
    Verbatim, showing a very strong +IOD developing, along with a continued ++PMM…
  23. snowman19
    This is starting to look like the “perfect storm” for causing a Bjerknes feedback loop/coupling to develop, which would cause this El Niño to become self-sustaining and self-reinforcing. We have the current record WWB/DWKW, coupled with the projected high amp, strong MJO wave propagating into the Pacific also supporting westerlies in the ENSO regions, a very strong +PMM, a developing +IOD and the “triplet” TC’s/typhoons in the PAC (causing another massive WWB/DWKW behind them)….
  24. snowman19
    For the first time in a long time, a high amp, strong MJO wave is projected to move into phases 7 and 8 come mid-month
  25. snowman19
    The “triplet” TC’s on both sides of the hemisphere is happening. They are starting to form. This is going to spark off yet another massive WWB and DWKW. The models are also doubling down on westerlies taking over in the ENSO regions later on this month. This is already starting to look like it’s going to be a record-breaking tropical storm/typhoon season in the PAC….
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