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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
    Given the totality of the indicators up to now, I think it goes super. Then the question becomes is it east-based/East Pacific (1997-98, 1982-83) or basin-wide (2015-16)
  2. snowman19
    This is starting to look like a lock for a “high-end” strong El Niño at the very minimum
  3. snowman19
    @Stormchaserchuck1 Wow at the current subsurface warmth. This downwelling Kelvin wave is massive. As per Paul Roundy: “The amount of momentum already integrated into this Kelvin wave has exceeded that of the March 1997 event by roughly 50%!”
  4. snowman19
    Yea. ENSO events normally take time
  5. snowman19
  6. snowman19
    This is very likely to be a record-breaking typhoon season in the PAC
  7. snowman19
    Because the warm waters are getting sloshed east with the developing El Nino and a +IOD is just starting to develop +IOD: https://www.climate.gov/media/11095
  8. snowman19
    @bluewave Holy ++PMM
  9. snowman19
    If (IF) this is correct, that is insane for a 13 models/637 member ensemble mean for September, at +2.2C, since the El Niño will still be strengthening at that point. They normally peak in November or December….
  10. snowman19
    1982-83 was an east-based super El Niño and we had the megalopolis blizzard. That said, I do agree with you that if we do go super, which is looking increasingly likely, it’s going to be a mild winter
  11. snowman19
    These projected zonal westerly wind anomalies are completely off the charts…..
  12. snowman19
    The models did a really great job at long lead times predicting the major TC’s……
  13. snowman19
  14. snowman19
    Yes, just saw the 30 day -SOI update. You were right about the subsurface warmth last week. The only year anywhere close to this one is 1997 and we have that beat
  15. snowman19
    @Bluewave
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  22. snowman19
    @StormchaserChuck1 Here comes the -SOI….
  23. snowman19
    Ok Patrick Star lmfaooooo
  24. snowman19
    We are about to leave 1997 in the dust…
  25. snowman19
    Wow….
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