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snowman19

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Everything posted by snowman19

  1. snowman19
  2. snowman19
    This Nino is already very well coupled to the atmosphere as can be seen with the very strong STJ response. It’s really going to be bombs away this fall and winter with the El Nino/+PMM juicing the STJ, it’s going to be on steroids, something we haven’t seen in a long time
  3. snowman19
    The +2.1C OHC is extremely impressive. In the last 46 years only this year and 1997 accomplished that this early
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  5. snowman19
    Yea, the only year with an OHC this warm, this early is 1997. And we have yet another WWB waiting in the wings for May courtesy of the MJO propagation back to the PAC and a protected parade of TC’s….
  6. snowman19
    ^”The RONI.. newer “relative” index - which takes our warmed climate into account - is like +2.7 which would be close to a record (if averaged over 3 months). The current record is +2.5°C in 1982-83.”
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  9. snowman19
    Well we survived the 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16 super Ninos. I think we’ll make it through this one too….
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  12. snowman19
    The models are starting to go bonkers with multiple TC’s developing in the PAC over the next week…..
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    Yet the very strong WWBs, DWKW’s, TC’s and very impressive, rapid subsurface and surface (especially in region 1+2) warming continues unabated
  16. snowman19
    In fairness to Webb, Paul Roundy said yesterday that this upcoming downwelling Kelvin wave is the strongest in history
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  18. snowman19
    +6C subsurface anomalies showing up now
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    Models still showing a robust +IOD developing over the coming months
  22. snowman19
    That’s from the massive DWKW Paul Roundy and Eric Webb talked about over the weekend. It’s going to advect and slosh east through Ekman pumping just like they all do.
  23. snowman19
    In particular, +QBO/El Nino (regardless of strength) Decembers are a torch in the east. It’s an extremely strong signal over the last 46 years in fact….every single one of them since 1980 were torches without any exceptions. @Stormchaserchuck1 pointed that out a month ago and DT also did a write up on it several years back
  24. snowman19
    Here comes the next WWB and downwelling KW for May. It is also likely to spawn more big TC’s with the associated WWBs behind them…..
  25. snowman19
    Research link: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adv8621#:~:text=Other climate modes further complicate,and NPO%2C on ENSO evolution. As per that research: “A positive Pacific Meridional Mode (+PMM) acts as a crucial driver for developing eastern Pacific (EP) El Niño events, particularly by facilitating wind-evaporation-SST (WES) feedback that warms the subtropical Northeast Pacific and promotes westerly wind anomalies at the equator. This interaction commonly triggers EP-type El Niño, characterized by peak warming in the eastern Pacific, as opposed to the Central Pacific (CP) type.”
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