EastonSN+

Thanks for this! I may be reading that map incorrectly, however it looks like there is a trough in the east. Why were the temps so high that December with a trough? Perhaps the positive EPO flooding the continent with marine air?

See I would love to get this analysis for 1888 LOL. That year was an absolute furnace, and I have to wonder if that setup was close to this year in some ways. Side note I would pay almost anything to be able to get a radar loop from the 1888 blizzard.

I do agree the WPAC waters are warm now and lately. I do not know if it's static or a cycle and will cool. Only time will tell. I do not look at posts from those who are predicting cold/snow as all trolling (there are trollers both ways), rather I like to believe this is their true viewpoint and they are entitled to it whether I agree or not. My current view is we are in a warm pattern like 1888, the late 80s through the 90s etc. I do believe that in the future we will go back to 1955 through 1969 or 2000 through 2018, albeit 1 or 2 degrees warmer.

Thanks for this. I wish we had the tools back in 1888, would love to see what drove that years pattern. 1.) I am surprised on how warm that entire year was! April through December was an absolute torch. Perhaps it was the same type of setup we see now. 2.) It's incredible how wide the daily temperature spreads were especially in the winter months. Shows how much the heat island effect has taken hold.

Each forum tends to have its own flavor. If you want snowfall optimism the Middle Atlantic and New England forums are for you. If you want warmth optimism this is your forum. I like to look at all three as you get a well rounded viewpoint. Taking all three, looking like warmth through the 20th, variable to the 25th and a potential favorable snowfall patter after the 25. Also known as a typical El nino December lol.

Final snip and the downer for 1888. Christmas Grinch torch we all know too well.

I love both posters to be honest and for different reasons of course. They both make me look forward to logging into this site daily.

Final one - epic summer season in 1888. That plus the blizzard sign me up any day.

Fantastic September. 1888 seemed to be a great long summer season, inclusive of an epic blizzard.

Wild that April too!!

This was February 1888

All the talk of 1888 made me research, what a temp roller coaster ride for that storm!!

I know Don mentioned very loosely 97/98, which is still a fear as in that year the GOA trough flooded Canada with PAC air the entire season. It has been 25 years so I wouldn't be floored by a repeat/something similar maybe a hair cooler.

From a YOY perspective yes, however if we get crushed in January and February and it's an above average winter, than the 90s still take the cake.

Perhaps this is a good sign and we will finally get hammered!

Records are made to be broken, surprised it may take over 100 years which is a long time.

I thought El ninos typically had a trough over Alaska, +EPO offset by a POS PNA?

Thanks Don, in my previous posts I referenced that I thought El ninos were typically not frigid, rather they usually have marginal air masses offset by favorable storm tracks with dynamic cooling from offshore intensification. The MA forum had a post stating that Canada is usually above average during times of truly large snow events. Seems that truly frigid years with the PV on our side of the globe for an extended period of time happens very rarely (76/77, 93/94 and 13/14).

I may be mistaken, however to my El nino question above, snow on the ground would lower monthly temp departures even though the air mass is marginal.

How often do we see prolonged periods of the PV over our area? I think it happened in 76/77, 93/94 and 13/14 (every 15 to 20 years)?

Thanks for this. Is this typical for el ninos? I always thought El ninos have blocking and a POS PNA, however the POS EPO usually keeps the PV on the other side. Always feel like when snow a lot in El ninos the temps are always marginal compensated by good storm tracks and rapid intensification leading to dynamic cooling.

Good to see the wave strengthen a little in 7 and 8.

Truth be told, I cannot sleep when it's windy/stormy at night ever since a tree fell on my house during one of the March 2018 snowstorms.

I hope this happens during the day, its terrifying hearing the wind through the trees when trying to sleep lol.

I have not seen any posts denying climate change. I do contest that the last 5 year period represents a small window of time, and we need more time to confidently declare that this 5 year window is the new normal WRT snowfall specifically (temps to a certain degree, no pun intended). Also, whilst the MIA officially ended, it would not have produced static temps from that point thereafter. Rather, temperatures would continue to rise as they have been doing. So, if an individual is not grasping the magnitude they are not incorrect OR correct. Even though we have incredibly intelligent posters of this forum, and I am lucky to be able to read from them, nobody knows DEFINITELY the magnitude of what is occurring, and what percentage is natural warming vs. human influence. I only speak for myself, but I respect all posters regardless of their stance, even if they believe GW will put us underwater by March or we will have continuous blizzards weekly for the next ten years. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. Only time will tell. Hopefully we all enjoy the ride.