Jump to content

beanskip

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,946

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by beanskip

  1. beanskip
    12z NAM surface low position at 0z Sunday (84 hours) almost right on top of 0z Euro position at the same time (96 hours) -- both over the south-central La. coast.
  2. beanskip
    Yeah, has a noticeable impact on dewpoints -- running a couple degrees warmer through NC and Va. All background noise unless it turns into a trend.
  3. beanskip
    Man, there was some terrible Euro analysis last night. If you're going to stay up that late, at least get it right. Couple observations: 1) EE rule is in effect. For newbies, the NAM used to be called the ETA. The EE rule is that if the Euro and the ETA are in agreement, take it to the bank 2) This also reminds me of the "Larry Cosgrove" storm from about 10 years ago (strongwx/QueenCityWx/Lookout/HKY and others will remember) when he came on the boards and pooh poohed those who argued that the models were underforecasting the CAD based on the position of the high. Needless to say, he hasn't been back to the board since and the entire southeast was crippled. 3) I'm trying to remember a system with such widespread QPF consistently forecasted from a week out -- heck, even in the short term I'm not sure I ever remember 3+" of QPF forecasted with a winter storm. Have to wonder if the models will accurately predict the interaction between that much water and the rest of the atmosphere. 4) Wish I was still up there to be in the thick of things!
  4. beanskip
    Forgot about the old "EE rule" -- it's in effect!
  5. beanskip
    Much more modest QPF from 18z GFS vs. 12z -- less than half the ouput in some places -- I guess lack of cooling from heavier precip could have affected temps. Edit: Could also just be that 18z is slower.
  6. beanskip
    Uh, hello -- the GFS basically stalled the low from 108 to 114 hours -- barely moved from Pt. St Joe to Lake City.
  7. beanskip
    Wow - cool to see the GFS trying to show wraparound CAD moving into SE Tennessee at 108 hours. I think that's a good indicator of how much the models may be underestimating the wedge. Paging Larry Cosgrove! ;-)
  8. beanskip
    Historic. And while every weenie's dream come true, also ... a natural disaster, if it verifies.
  9. beanskip
    12z Monday Euro -- only NW 1/4 of NC was sub zero 850 and low was over Tifton, Ga. 12z Tuesday Euro -- virtually all of NC and the I-85 corridor in SC are sub-zero 850s and the low is over Tallahassee.
  10. beanskip
    Oh wow -- MUCH better look for N.C./S.C. at hour 120 (vs. 144 on 12z Monday run) -- 850s locked in. EDIT: Surface low way down over TLH -- probably a perfect spot.
  11. beanskip
    LOL at FV3 surface low track (at least as depicted on TT) -- it makes a perfect right angle from hours 108 to 120 -- goes due north, followed by due east. Unlikely ....
  12. beanskip
    Canadian back to a Miller B -- all rain for CLT. EDIT: Takes low up into NW Alabama (!) before the transfer.
  13. beanskip
    Strange -- GFS takes surface low north of 6z position, but CAD is stronger.
  14. beanskip
    Everything a touch south (cold air and low pressure) through 96 hours of 12z GFS. EDIT: Hmmm, also more negative tilt at 500 mb.
  15. beanskip
    To accept the 12z Euro 850 temp profiles verbatim is to accept that there are sub 0c 850 temps in Orlando but not in RDU or GSO at 192 hours. More likely, the model does not yet have a handle on fine details at this range. Better, as Wow suggested, to look at the big pieces on the board.
  16. beanskip
    Yeah, it sure is in a nice spot, right up there over PA/NY border.
  17. beanskip
    Big issue with temps on Euro run -- 850 Oc line barely making it into NW part of N.C.
  18. beanskip
    Compared to yesterday's 12z Euro, HP not nearly as robust and 850s have retreated a bit over Carolinas/Va. That's not to say it won't still work out, of course ....
  19. beanskip
    12z GFS reflects the impossible nature of the forecast. 35 miles is the difference between landfall (12z run) and not (6z run).
  20. beanskip
    Well, clearly the NHC is going to have to address this scenario at the 5 am update. This is two straight Euro and GFS runs that make landfall hundreds and hundreds of miles away from what is currently projected. So tricky though —have to communicate carefully to NC coastal areas that this will be close enough to be devastating even if landfall doesn’t actually occur. This will test NHC’s dexterity. Standard forecast tracks really won’t cut it with this storm.
  21. beanskip
    Wow — looks like Georgia landfall.
  22. beanskip
    So here is a question for a met — how close to shore does a storm need to progress (on close to perpendicular approach) for the full brunt of storm surge to be realized?
  23. beanskip
    Hard to tell on 24 hour maps, but looks to be even farther offshore of SC coast at 96.
  24. beanskip
    No landfall through 72 hours for 0z euro. Appears to be a bit southwest of 12z position.
  25. beanskip
    NHC pretty much discounts 12z Euro -- still has Florence on shore north of Cape Fear by Friday. Probably as good of a strategy as any. They are in a total no-win here.
×
×
  • Create New...