beanskip

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes.

Shoutout to whoever installed the Treasure Beach power poles.

Sixth lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Only one hurricane (Labor Day Keys storm of 1935) has ever made landfall sub-900 (892 mb).

Still watching this westward motion -- looks like Melissa has made it to 78.6W perhaps 78.7W - that's three to four tenths of longitude further west than any 12z hurricane model depicted. HAFS A and B had Melissa crossing 17N at about 78.3W. I'm not sure how much practical impact there is from a near miss of the western tip or a far southwestern coast landfall, but it's interesting to track nonetheless. One would think the far eastern portions of the island might eventually benefit -- QPF-wise -- from a more western track. Not sounding the all clear or anything, lol, but seems like a trend worth watching.

Seems like it's been to the left of model guidance all day. Hard to tell from satellite, but it appears to have reached 78.4 W which is farther west than the HAFS A/B ever get the storm on their 12z runs.

HAFS-B track is sure off -- the 6z run showed Melissa crossing 17N before even getting to 78W, with northern movement occuring between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. That didn't happen. HAFS-A had the storm still shy of 78W at 11 am Per satellite, looks like the storm has made it to 78.2W Probably just within-track-error noise, but with much more westward progress, the turn north would keep the storm pretty close to the western tip of the island.

Hey just checking in from Tallahassee -- haven't really been paying much attention to the weather, seems like the time of year when folks in the Carolinas have a shot for a snowstorm. Boy it sure does make me jealous ... anyway, hope all is well ....

1-3 inches for Tallahassee on this run -- it's a lock!

Not much snow down here in the panhandle (although a few GFS runs have gotten my attention!). Pulling for y'all in the Carolinas/Ga./Va to hit the jackpot!

Been on this board for a long, long time (including prior iterations). When it comes to snow in the 8-15 day range, all you can hope for is, well, hope. We haven't had any for most of the last 3-5 years. Right now we do. Rather than parse every model run for good or bad trends, just enjoy having some hope and an overall favorable pattern in the medium range. Then when it gets into the under-7-days range, you can commence with the cliff-diving/wishcasting that makes the board so entertaining.

Canadian shows a nice 1/7 snow that would make many on this board happy. That's Day 8, so getting closer to a better range.

TFW the 18z GFS shows a little spot of mixed precip over Osceola County Florida and snow just a few miles north of Tampa ....

Much better, sharper 500mb look on the 12/21-22 system.

12z GFS following the trend of other models -- moving the storm inland over Honduras. No chance of those early-week Cat 4 solutions if that happens.

Why are we dissecting 204 hour panels for a storm that hasn't formed yet and is forecast to behave like a drunken frat guy in the Caribbean for 3 days before eventually, possibly emerging into the Gulf?

No way all these tornadoes are going to be able to avoid high population areas forever. What a remarkable outbreak.

Seems to me the key is -- when does Milton cross 84W? 6z Euro doesn't have this happening until 27N. Hurricane models -- more like 26.4 N.

Don't remember this kind of language on surge gradients from NHC: We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening. Even at 12-24 hours, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 20-30 nm. Since storm surge forecasts are highly sensitive to the exact track, this means that the realized storm surge heights across the Tampa Bay region and south may vary widely, and there will likely be a noticeable gradient of surge heights to the north of the landfall location. However, the risk of devastating storm surge still exists across much of the west-central and southwest coast of Florida given the size of the storm and the uncertainties in exactly where landfall will occur.

Looking closely at the 18z Euro, it's tracking right toward the mouth of Tampa Bay but takes a late right turn to come in around Bradenton. It then heads due east for another 3-6 hours, then starts adding a more northerly component. I think the difference between a Tampa Bay direct hit and a Bradenton/Sarasota track is going to be the timing of this turn which pretty much every model has shown happening either pre- or mostly post-landfall.

I think it's noteworthy that all 4 18z hurricane models trended at least slightly (in some cases ever so slightly) to the south vs. their 12z runs. I sure wouldn't want to be at Bradenton Beach or on Longboat Key this time tomorrow.

18z HAFS-B trending slightly -- but not insignificantly -- south vs. 12z run through 27 hours. Also trending stronger.

Correct and it was the isolation of the spaghetti plots/NHC track vs. ... pretty much every other model, that was so stark. Allan Huffman captured it well (and this wasn't even the westernmost NHC landfall point). https://x.com/RaleighWx/status/1839374056753451138

So the 18z spaghetti plots have every single landfall south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. This is coming off a disastrous Helene performance that was far to the left of the global and hurricane models but which, inexplicably, the NHC hugged until the bitter end. Will be interesting to see the official track at 5.

The only 1 of the 4 hurricane models that doesn't show pre-landfall weakening, it should be noted.

Another pass at 925 mb. Meanwhile, 12z HAFS-B showing considerably more weakening near landfall vs. 6z run. Up about 10 mb run over run in last few hours before landfall. EDIT: Same with HAFS-B, but HMON is actually stronger vs. 6z.