beanskip

Check out this nightmare. Delta flight from ATL to TLH trying to land (and not succeeding). https://www.flightaware.com/live/flight/DAL1984/history/20261009/2110Z/KATL/KTLH

Latest pass 953.7 so looks like it's probably topped out strength-wise, unsurprisingly.

My God what does it take for the football talk to get taken to banter?

Uh oh -- so much for leveling off ....

Looks like recon quit transmitting data?

Last recon pass is up 2 mb to 978mb. Never seen a strengthening storm that doesn't lose any pressure for 5 hours ...

Even though precise track may not be as important on Isaias as other more powerful storms, fwiw pretty much every 12z model trended east from prior runs. Heck, the 12z HMON is almost to Panama City Beach. 12z HAFS-B gains a whopping 32 mb of pressure in last 15 hours before landfall.

When is this strengthening storm going to, you know, strengthen? Pressure has been stuck on 976 mb per recon for a couple hours.

Another pass with extrapolated 974 mb. Whatever strengthening that is happening isn't happening super quickly.

Wow latest recon finding about 10mb lower pressure than the previous one.

Quick search finds that 955 mb is the lowest for non-tropical. 1888 storm -- 980.

For those of you keeping score at home, 965 mb (as the 18z NAM just showed) would be the cutoff between Cat 2 and Cat 3 if this was tropical. (Enjoying the hell out of watching y'all track this from down here in Tallahassee -- let the big dog eat!)

Did somebody say Tallahassee?

Melissa hasn't made any eastward progress (per satellite) for the last 90 minutes.

Shoutout to whoever installed the Treasure Beach power poles.

Sixth lowest pressure ever recorded in the Atlantic basin. Only one hurricane (Labor Day Keys storm of 1935) has ever made landfall sub-900 (892 mb).

Still watching this westward motion -- looks like Melissa has made it to 78.6W perhaps 78.7W - that's three to four tenths of longitude further west than any 12z hurricane model depicted. HAFS A and B had Melissa crossing 17N at about 78.3W. I'm not sure how much practical impact there is from a near miss of the western tip or a far southwestern coast landfall, but it's interesting to track nonetheless. One would think the far eastern portions of the island might eventually benefit -- QPF-wise -- from a more western track. Not sounding the all clear or anything, lol, but seems like a trend worth watching.

Seems like it's been to the left of model guidance all day. Hard to tell from satellite, but it appears to have reached 78.4 W which is farther west than the HAFS A/B ever get the storm on their 12z runs.

HAFS-B track is sure off -- the 6z run showed Melissa crossing 17N before even getting to 78W, with northern movement occuring between 8 a.m. and 11 a.m. That didn't happen. HAFS-A had the storm still shy of 78W at 11 am Per satellite, looks like the storm has made it to 78.2W Probably just within-track-error noise, but with much more westward progress, the turn north would keep the storm pretty close to the western tip of the island.

Hey just checking in from Tallahassee -- haven't really been paying much attention to the weather, seems like the time of year when folks in the Carolinas have a shot for a snowstorm. Boy it sure does make me jealous ... anyway, hope all is well ....

1-3 inches for Tallahassee on this run -- it's a lock!

Not much snow down here in the panhandle (although a few GFS runs have gotten my attention!). Pulling for y'all in the Carolinas/Ga./Va to hit the jackpot!

Been on this board for a long, long time (including prior iterations). When it comes to snow in the 8-15 day range, all you can hope for is, well, hope. We haven't had any for most of the last 3-5 years. Right now we do. Rather than parse every model run for good or bad trends, just enjoy having some hope and an overall favorable pattern in the medium range. Then when it gets into the under-7-days range, you can commence with the cliff-diving/wishcasting that makes the board so entertaining.

Canadian shows a nice 1/7 snow that would make many on this board happy. That's Day 8, so getting closer to a better range.

TFW the 18z GFS shows a little spot of mixed precip over Osceola County Florida and snow just a few miles north of Tampa ....