beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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Mandatory evacuation order by county commissioners for all Wakulla County residents. https://www.mywakulla.com/news_detail_T29_R2510.php
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Euro coming in stronger. Cat 2 (975 mb) at landfall.
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HAFS-B makes a late run at Cat 3 strength. Also a nightmare run for Tallahassee.
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HMON super close to the same thing, but stays just offshore.
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That time spent over Yucatan led to a 43 mb increase in pressure effective 15z Thursday vs. the prior run.
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Yeah, the HAFS-A has it spending 12 HOURS over the Yucatan!
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So what's the most a tropical system has strengthened in 60 hours? I know when (if?) the shear fades it will be a great environment, but at some point the clock becomes a factor, right? Looks like hurricane hunters can't find anything under 1000 mb yet.
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Imagine what more of a direct hit would look like. Sheesh.
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Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far.
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Except for the heart-breaking reality that the few people who live there have been crushed in just the last couple years. But yes, in the biggest of big pictures, if you could pick a place on the Florida coast for a hurricane to hit, that area or perhaps south of Naples would be it.
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Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again.
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Pretty tight spread for a storm still in the womb.
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Oh I know that. I'm asking about the biases of the HAFS vs. the retiring models.
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Well, to answer my own question, there damned well better still be a "overintensity" bias because the 6z HAFS-B is at 904 mb at 75 hours.
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How has the verification of the HAFS models been compared to the HWRF and HMON (which they are retiring, correct?)? I know the HWRF and HMON often overestimated intensification (although I also remember them being the first to catch on to the idea that Michael would blow up). Is the same a bias of the HAFS? Any track biases observed? EDIT: I'm prompted to ask as I see the 6z HAFS-B down to 978mb before even reaching 20N. #gulp
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Wait, haven’t I seen this movie before? GFS and hurricane models near Panama City and Euro way east with a Taylor County hit?
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HAFS suite running for first time off Invest 97. HAFS-A is 953 mb with a 30-A area landfall (between FWB and Panama City). HAFS-B is 960 mb and landfalls around Mexico Beach.
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Looks like there are going to be a lot of relieved people in Tallahassee tomorrow (including me). The sharp cut off of precip on the storm's west site and some subtle trending east with models and track could make this a minor event with an inch or so of rain and some modest winds. Unfortunately, another tough hit for Taylor and Dixie counties.
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Super unimpressive first recon pass -- didn't even find pressure as low as the current advisory.
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Pretty unimpressive recon data so far -- looks like the latest pass may have hit 1004. In model news, the first 0z run -- HRRR (yeah I know) -- made a big shift east from its 18z run, passing east of TLH, which would be helpful to me.
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Is the Tropical Tidbits recon page broken? Trying to figure out why no missions scheduled?
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Hurricane models starting to get frisky on strengthening. 18z runs of HAFS and HMON have Debby sub-990 mb when making landfall on Big Bend. Unfortunately, it's also showing a very Idalia-like track. Those folks just can't take another hit, even from a strong TS/Cat 1 hurricane. 18z GFS also was stronger than prior runs with a 997 mb Florida landfall. Something to monitor as models get a better fix on the center.
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AIFS even stronger -- sneaks down to 999 before landfall.
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Sorry, I'm talking Florida landfall. You said "strongest yet into the Big Bend" -- was trying to reconcile that.
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Maybe I'm looking at wrong Euro, but the 12z run I see is 1007 mb at landfall?
