beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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Would love nothing more for this to pan out for all my SE peeps, but extreme caution is in order. Banking on the GFS as an outlier is like going to a Globetrotters game and thinking THIS is the time when the Washington Generals will beat them.
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Surge pictures are incredible. Watching CNN right now with Bill Weir in Punta Gorda currently in the eye. I must say the wind damage is surprisingly less than I would expect from a strong Cat 4.
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I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast.
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What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well.
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At 54 hours, it's not as markedly east of 12z run. Of course, 25 miles is the difference between living and dying with this guy.
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18z GFS SE of 12z at 36. EDIT: And by a fair amount at just 36 hours. EDIT: And at 42 hours it is as well -- actually seems like its ESE of 12z position.
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Euro 96 hours -- never got to shore -- headed north.
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Looks like Euro is in between 12z GFS (which is now to the east) and CMC (to the west) at 72 hours. Really got stronger, too.
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At 72 hours -- not going to make it to the coast, it doesn't appear. West of 0z.
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12z Euro playing its usual "you say tomato" game with the GFS. At 48 hours, it will have to cut pretty hard to the right to make it to landfall. Amazing that when the GFS finally caves, the Euro swings back to the west a bit. If accurate, would be a big break for Tampa -- not so much for Panhandle.
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Oh I know on NAM -- was talking about HMON/HWRF
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Yeah but weren't they ahead of the pack on Michael's rapid intensification?
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HMON and HWRIF both go east -- especially the HMON which now has a 951 mb Ian at the mouth of Tampa Bay at 57 hours.
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So forecasting every hurricane is unique, but it's hard to remember one with this many complicating factors and this much uncertainty. Part of it is a combination of angle of approach and the possibility of stall. But there is also this unusual dry air/weakening depiction, PRECEDED by the expected RI of the storm. Even an old codger like me has trouble remember one that's this difficult to forecast. We've certainly seen worse storms in the past few years, but not ones this ornery, imo.
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Wow -- LOL -- CMC goes a good bit back to the west.
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GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking. Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area.
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66 hours -- GFS ALMOST making landfall near mouth of Tampa Bay.
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18z HWRF goes a degree and a half of latitude south vs 12z run at just 57 hours.
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Wow -- 12Z Euro WELL to the south/left of yesterday's 12z run at 96 hours vs. 72
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HWRF riding the 85W longtitude from tip of Cuba all the way abreast of Tampa Bay -- HMON also on the western edge of NHC guidance.
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12z GFS trending a smidge back to the left through 78 hours.
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80 percent of Tallahassee lost power during Hermine.
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This "stall in the gulf" thing seems like a thing. I remember the models picking up on that pretty early with Matthew. Bears watching.
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Lol, the ever-consistent ICON makes a tiny little shift vs. prior run -- from Yucatan to .... Key West!
