beanskip

HMON and HWRIF both go east -- especially the HMON which now has a 951 mb Ian at the mouth of Tampa Bay at 57 hours.

So forecasting every hurricane is unique, but it's hard to remember one with this many complicating factors and this much uncertainty. Part of it is a combination of angle of approach and the possibility of stall. But there is also this unusual dry air/weakening depiction, PRECEDED by the expected RI of the storm. Even an old codger like me has trouble remember one that's this difficult to forecast. We've certainly seen worse storms in the past few years, but not ones this ornery, imo.

Wow -- LOL -- CMC goes a good bit back to the west.

GFS very "pre Oz Euro"-looking. Pretty much a nightmare run for Tampa Bay area.

66 hours -- GFS ALMOST making landfall near mouth of Tampa Bay.

18z HWRF goes a degree and a half of latitude south vs 12z run at just 57 hours.

Wow -- 12Z Euro WELL to the south/left of yesterday's 12z run at 96 hours vs. 72

HWRF riding the 85W longtitude from tip of Cuba all the way abreast of Tampa Bay -- HMON also on the western edge of NHC guidance.

12z GFS trending a smidge back to the left through 78 hours.

80 percent of Tallahassee lost power during Hermine.

This "stall in the gulf" thing seems like a thing. I remember the models picking up on that pretty early with Matthew. Bears watching.

Lol, the ever-consistent ICON makes a tiny little shift vs. prior run -- from Yucatan to .... Key West!

18z NAM had low in Gulf.

I know you haven't gotten a ton response on these posts, but I think they are wise and on point. On the one hand, the model consistency on this storm has been breathtaking. On the other hand, if there is going to be a surprise, it's not going to be on track (a track which hasn't budged, for the most part, for 3 days), it's going to be old Larry Cosgrove-esque CAD over- (or under-) performance. You and I have been on these boards a long time and two things always seem to happen: 1) The CAD is underestimated 2) So is the warm nose. That could be a particularly ugly combination with this sucker.

Definitely didn’t translate through the run ….

18z ICON dropping the 500mb low further south — just through 21 hours. Eventually these small shifts add up ….

I was trying to make that point a bit more charitably .... ;-)

Pretty scary map here -- 12z Euro 850 temps at 9 a.m. Sunday morning, with plenty of QPF piling up. 2m temps around 26 in CLT at this time.

Yes and the 850 low on the RGEM was just about 40 miles south of the 6z position while over Georgia. Within the model margin of error? Probably. But I've also seen life (and death) by paper cut where 4 straight 20-40 miles shifts suddenly turned into a game-changing trend for some folks. Worth watching when in places like my old stomping grounds, 10 miles can make all the difference with the sensible weather.

I know everybody is hanging on every wobble (and that's a lot of the fun of it all), but the 30,000-foot view is worth mentioning -- this is quite remarkable model consistency over the past 36 hours or more.

18z GFS 500 and 850 lows actually a bit south of 12z positions at 60 hours.

850 temps significantly warmer at 72 hours of 12z euro. Upper features a little faster and maybe a tick south.

Nice little south jog vs. 0z for 12z CMC at 500 mb.

Posts like these are why this board is so great.

6z GFS has 850 low at 90 hours over Roanoke. 12z NAM at 84 hours has it over ... Athens. That's a pretty big spread.