beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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Uh oh -- pretty sizeable westward jog of the 18z Euro vs. the 12z run.
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Understood and I agree. BUT, for those of us concerned about staying on the west side of landfall, 60 miles can mean a lot!
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Tiny little jog west vs. 0z but (thankfully) not following the hurricane models which would likely result in my untimely death.
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CMC goes east -- basically the first model to trend that way since 18z runs yesterday.
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12z ICON: West 12z GFS through 51 hours: West (of its westernmost solution). Euro still a safe bet, but it is becoming increasingly isolated to the east.
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Well, I know we're not supposed to talk about the NAM for tropics -- or much of anything else -- but it is showing a pretty striking trend to the west and slower on its 12z run. Given that King Euro crept west at Oz and the hurricane models did at 6z, I think something might be going on here.
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Would love to see the op run plotted on there.
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Is there history on the direction of this miss. These two examples are both to the right -- is that a known bias or just a coincidence for these two?
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This is excellent. To wit, it does not appear the pressure is dropping per latest recon pass.
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Seems to be no mention of the decided westward trends in some of the models (in addition to the pronounced slowing trend). 0z Euro went slightly west. The HMON went more than a full degree of longtitude west. CMC -- west. GFS held serve with its western track.
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Cutter ....
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Changes from 12z Euro compared to yesterday's run are almost comical. The GFS is probably out to lunch, but anybody who declares this over is practicing high-level buffoonery.
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Would love nothing more for this to pan out for all my SE peeps, but extreme caution is in order. Banking on the GFS as an outlier is like going to a Globetrotters game and thinking THIS is the time when the Washington Generals will beat them.
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Surge pictures are incredible. Watching CNN right now with Bill Weir in Punta Gorda currently in the eye. I must say the wind damage is surprisingly less than I would expect from a strong Cat 4.
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I’m sure you are also factoring in the SE to NE orientation of the SW FL coast.
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What’s missing about the Charley comparisons is the potential for storm surge in Charlotte Harbor. The main part of the harbor was on the left side of Charley, which passed over Captiva Island. A storm that makes landfall at, say, Englewood or Stump Pass, to the north, would drive water through Boca Grande Pass and right up into the harbor. I would think that narrow pass would be overwhelmed causing big issues on Gasparilla Island as well.
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At 54 hours, it's not as markedly east of 12z run. Of course, 25 miles is the difference between living and dying with this guy.
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18z GFS SE of 12z at 36. EDIT: And by a fair amount at just 36 hours. EDIT: And at 42 hours it is as well -- actually seems like its ESE of 12z position.
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Euro 96 hours -- never got to shore -- headed north.
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Looks like Euro is in between 12z GFS (which is now to the east) and CMC (to the west) at 72 hours. Really got stronger, too.
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At 72 hours -- not going to make it to the coast, it doesn't appear. West of 0z.
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12z Euro playing its usual "you say tomato" game with the GFS. At 48 hours, it will have to cut pretty hard to the right to make it to landfall. Amazing that when the GFS finally caves, the Euro swings back to the west a bit. If accurate, would be a big break for Tampa -- not so much for Panhandle.
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Oh I know on NAM -- was talking about HMON/HWRF
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Yeah but weren't they ahead of the pack on Michael's rapid intensification?
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