beanskip

Great trend and track for NAM but man, it's a sleetstorm for most outside of mountains until the backside comes through.

Man, 12z NAM got MUCH more aggressive with the CAD. Dewpoints 3-8 degrees colder from GSO down to Atlanta, vs. prior runs.

Man, the CMC has the upper features moving pretty much due east from Texas/Oklahoma to Birmingham, then that sucker hangs a hard left and cuts up through western N.C. -- really screws D.C., among others.

Seems like the shift in upper features didn't really translate to surface/sensible weather. Probably just model noise which will sort itself out.

ICON was pretty similar to past runs until 96 hours - then it really holds the 500mb low well to the south of prior runs -- Augusta instead of Asheville.

18z drops almost 2 inches of QPF into 2m temps in the mid-20s for the duration of the storm west of I-77. Doesn’t matter the breakdown of p-types … that’s some serious shit.

Yeah this is SOOO true. Now that I'm just an observer from afar, it helps check my "excitement bias" -- the two main biases are underestimating the "nose" and ignoring model issues with boundary layer temps. Can't tell you how many times I've been a sucker for those who say "meh, heavy precip rates will overcome those +3 BL temps" and then cursed my naivete as I watch it rain. Having said that -- good luck, everyone, from Tallahassee. I'll be rooting hard for the BIG DOG!

Agree. Lots of Twitter accounts tonight are claiming to be storm chaser/spotters -- but they only have a couple hundred followers and are from Indiana or someplace. May or may not be legit.

0z GFS -- east at 12 hours vs. 18z at 18 hours.

Heads up guys, I just talked with Larry Cosgrove, he says the cold air damming is waayyyyy overdone by the models. Should be a cold rain for most .... ;-) :-0 (got to be a board oldtimer to appreciate that one)

Man, 18z RGEM just plastered the mountains of NC/TN/VA.

Greetings to my SE friends -- I'll be rooting hard down here in the panhandle for every one to hit the jackpot. I must say, though, I would exercise caution on this one for a couple of reasons: 1) this ULL is not very strong and thus will not necessarily drive high QPF rates which means ... 2) Boundary layer issues will be real -- the latest Euro run, for example, never gets it below 36 in my old stomping grounds of Shelby -- even during the highest times of precip. That's no bueno. If I were in the mountains/northern foothills of western N.C., I'd feel good about this and with ULLs you just never really know what's going to happen in more marginal areas. But it looks very very borderline for the I-85 corridor. That won't stop me for wishing for a Hail Mary though! Good luck!

A worst-case track for New Orleans -- Zeta comes "ashore" right up Terrebonne Bay, keeping it over water for as long as possible.

Still strengthening, per latest recon pass -- yikes.

Yeah that half-a-cane Michael was really pathetic. Could barely even tell it was a storm. #facepalm

How much value can these model runs have that are initializing the surface pressure 20-40 mb too high?

Cold chasing precip -- a recipe for disappointment.

NHC will start "Potential Tropical Cyclone 16" advisories at 11.

Frankly, a bit surprised NHC hasn't initiated some sort of pre-cyclone advisories on this system. Seems quite likely that at least a tropical storm will make landfall within 48 hours in an area still recovering from Michael. It's getting very little play in the panhandle.

Hi.

How much for Ocala?

0z RGEM keeps ALL of Spartanburg County below freezing all the way though 13z Sunday.

WB at Shelby airport now at 31.6 with 32 Temp and 31 DP. Euro/GFS never had Shelby getting at or below freezing.

HRRR busting on temps by 2-3F — latest runs have southern NC Piedmont/Upstate 36-37 at 1z — current temp in Shelby/Rutherford 34

18z trending 2-4 degrees colder over southern NC/SC/Ga. with dewpoints vs. 12z and this is only out to 30 hours -- pretty significant change.