beanskip

HEY METS! I've been on this board for as long as it has existed. I have an NHC Cat 3 track line going right over my house. I've always seen these boards as place to learn and share. I have what I think is a valid question and would appreciate somebody educating me. Thanks!

To elaborate. The 12Z Euro, 12z UK, 12z GFS and 12z ICON all have a Taylor County landfall -- that's 50-75 miles east of current NHC track. While the hurricane models are Wakulla County landfall, I don't see any of them passing TLH to the west as the NHC track shows. Anybody know why this is the case? Yes, the storm is big, but I'd rather be 50 miles away from the eye than right in line with it!

It's not just the global models. I can't find a single model anywhere that has the eye passing 25 miles west of Tallahassee, as the NHC track currently shows.

Any details on panhandle landfall location?

12z GFS stubbornly hanging on to a more easterly track -- landfall in Taylor County. This 50 miles would be huge for Tallahassee if it verified. Still wouldn't be a walk in the park given the size of the storm, but would spare the capital the most severe winds. Unfortunately GFS coups are few and far between ...

12Z ICON 2-3 hours slower as well. Obviously, timing is a point of interest, but this is also more hours over warm Gulf waters.

So I know the NAM is pretty worthless for tropical systems, but it is, I think, noteworthy that it slowed down landfall by what looks like 6-8 hours on the 12z run vs. 6z.

No. Michael missed Tallahassee by almost 100 miles and Michael was a much tighter storm. Bad impacts, for sure -- much like Hermine. But nothing like this.

Tallahassee perspective: You may not know that Tallahassee and surrounding areas are some of the most tree-laden places in the country. A combination of live oaks, water oaks and countless pine trees create a canopy that can be breathtaking. Of course, those trees become weaponized by hurricanes and tornadoes. For perspective, almost everyone in Tallahassee lost power during Hermine (a Cat 1 storm) and many lost power for more than a week. It's hard to overstate the devastation that is coming to my area and the amount of repair work that will be required. That's to say nothing of the multiple rivers that empty into Apalachee Bay which will feel the effects of this unprecedented surge. Given that rivers are already running high from a rainy summer and prior storms, it's just an ugly recipe. I'll try to share updates Thursday as long as I have power/cell service.

Can you please define "somewhat?"

Does DT's old "EE rule" apply to the tropics? (Second one is the Euro)

I would actually love a primer on these spagheti plots -- I rarely see much correlation between them and actual individual model runs. What are they?

Mandatory evacuation order by county commissioners for all Wakulla County residents. https://www.mywakulla.com/news_detail_T29_R2510.php

Euro coming in stronger. Cat 2 (975 mb) at landfall.

HAFS-B makes a late run at Cat 3 strength. Also a nightmare run for Tallahassee.

HMON super close to the same thing, but stays just offshore.

That time spent over Yucatan led to a 43 mb increase in pressure effective 15z Thursday vs. the prior run.

Yeah, the HAFS-A has it spending 12 HOURS over the Yucatan!

So what's the most a tropical system has strengthened in 60 hours? I know when (if?) the shear fades it will be a great environment, but at some point the clock becomes a factor, right? Looks like hurricane hunters can't find anything under 1000 mb yet.

Imagine what more of a direct hit would look like. Sheesh.

Good to see the hurricane hunter not finding pressures under 1007 so far.

Except for the heart-breaking reality that the few people who live there have been crushed in just the last couple years. But yes, in the biggest of big pictures, if you could pick a place on the Florida coast for a hurricane to hit, that area or perhaps south of Naples would be it.

Pretty nice shift east with the 12z Euro. Probably one of many track changes, but this one hits the incredibly-maligned Taylor County area yet again.

Pretty tight spread for a storm still in the womb.

Oh I know that. I'm asking about the biases of the HAFS vs. the retiring models.