beanskip
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Everything posted by beanskip
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The hi-res NAM and the other NAMs need to huddle up and get on the same page!
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That's one of the scariest maps I've seen on these boards. Greenville and Spartanburg would never been the same -- and Charlotte/Rock Hill wouldn't be much better.
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Ok, I see now (although DPs also seem higher vs. 12z run). Will be interested to see how total QPF compares -- seems like more precip was lost in this run.
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OK, so the NAM just warmed 2m temps by about 6 degrees F over the Carolinas vs. the 12z run at around 30 hours. WTF?
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Wow, but it's so much slower that precip isn't arriving in time to take advantage of the colder temps.
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18z NAM 850s 0c line another 25 miles SW vs. 12z run at 26 hours. Good news for I-85 corridor in SC.
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12z Ukie?
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FV3 colder ... again. Heavy snow breaking out in southern NC Piedmont at 18z Saturday.
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Man, that RDU sounding -- ugly ... almost a half inch of freezing rain glaze on top of 5 inches of snow on top of a layer of sleet.
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CMC actually went back north with snow field -- would take I-85 corridor from CLT to GSP pretty much out of the game -- sleet/zra, it appears.
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Surface low is quite a bit faster than 6z run -- was over Mobile Bay -- now all the way over to Milton, NW of Pensacola.
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Definitely some changes vs. 6z with the orientation of the 5h disturbance. I'm not smart enough to figure out what it means, but just eyeballing, something has changed. EDIT: 12z version seems flatter?
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Wow -- huge surge south of 850 temps vs. 6z run -- about 50 miles south at 30 hours.
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At 27 hours -- 850 temps looking nice over NC -- the 0C line has moved south a little, but the gradient is better -- that is, -5 temps have made it across the VA/NC line.
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Also, nice improvement in 850 temps over NC at 21 hours vs. 6z run -- sunk down over NC/SC line on the 12z -- hadn't made it that far on prior run.
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As 12z NAM gets rolling, through 15 hours, at 500mb, it's holding back the southern stream energy a bit -- and it also looks stronger.
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Would love to see the Kuchera map. Also — is there a public site for those?
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Very strange run. Almost like somebody jostled the map of the US and everything got shifted south. Temps looked good until the end when 850s pooped out at 72 hours. I don’t know — odd.
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0z GFS basically just shifting every feature (cold air/precip/low pressure center) south throughout the run.
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NAM comes back to momma.
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Man, FV3 still going at 90 hours -- 12z Monday -- with snow all the way back into Georgia.
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FV3 doubles down -- 850s even colder through 48 hours than the 12z run -- 0c 850 line makes it into NE Ga.
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Yeah, the difference between Kings Mountain and Casar in Cleveland County is going to be interesting.
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Brutal map for I-85 corridor -- not only do they take a hit on snow, but its surely replaced with ice and sleet.