The 4 Seasons

Id be absolutely shocked if the ECMWF doesn't come NW, a solid jump, at least...not a tick. And we are now approaching 24hrs....12Z it was well SE of the BM and 18Z pretty much right over the BM.

terrible. total bust, at least for mby and most of new haven county which we had in the 5-10" range away from the shore. ended up with 3.3"

i was referencing pack POST the Tuesday storm.

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-14" over E/SNE We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well. Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack.

roughly, although if something like RGEM comes to fruition we may see a stripe of 5-8 across the interior of MA and CT, wouldn't be surprised at all.

Measles ftw! Yeah, we are definitely seeing a move towards the mesos, that 70/30 split i mentioned may be very conservative. Might be more like 90/10

GEM also came well NW as well.

GFS with a total cave. Not as crazy as the HRRR or RGEM going over the islands but its defintely inside the BM now. Again, i think well see a compromise here but closer to the mesos than the globals, maybe a 70/30 compromise? Which would probably be a sweet spot for most of the forum. Well see where we are at after the 00/06Z suite tonight but i think we're looking good overall.

RGEM is being very very stubborn with this event, just not wavering much each run

Kinda wild the difference between the mesos and the globals. RGEM goes over the canal, HRRR over ACK, GEM/EC over the BM and GFS well SE of the BM. Still think well see a compromise, somethings gotta give we are approaching 24 hours till start time, at least on the mesos. The timing differences are also pretty stark with HRRR/NAM 10pm-midnight moving into S CT and the EC/GFS not really getting things going until 7AM ish on Tuesday. Our first call was 1-3, we'll be making a final call tomorrow but i think for now that still stands.

Yeah, i agree. This could turn out to be a really nice event with perfect timing for the daylight, almost perfectly centered from sunup to sun set, surface temps in the mid to upper 20s, with cold after the storm.

6Z euro is not gonna be as good as 00Z, looks like it ticked back SE, similar to 18Z. Still a decent swath of snow over SNE about 1-3. Just an off hour run though, 12Z could easily tick back NW.

RGEM is a nuke, drops 16mb in 12 hours. Its been fairly consistent but is definitely an outlier right now with that NW track and explosive development. Also these mesos have been much warmer punching 850s well into SE southern new england while the globals are pretty much all snow region wide including the gem/gfs/ec.

Pretty big jump up on the Ec, it's been playing a bit of catch up with the mesos so it's expected. I think a region wide 1-4 is a good starting point for now. Kind of a far cry from the moderate snowstorm we were potentially looking at a few days ago but also a lot better than pure whiff, especially with the cold incoming

Aye that's my fav storm of all time. I thought yours was 12/30/00

Why

23 months with <3"?

Updated CT snowfall totals from this event. Tri-state area snowfall totals. Southern New England map i just finished last night. I went through the past 20 pages and tried to include all the reports i could find for MA/CT/RI. This is the first year i started doing this type of map and I'm not familiar with the 301 towns in Massachusetts, not to mention all the CDPs but i did my best. I also used the NWS 72-hour snowfall analysis and snowfall totals map as a guide, as well as Cocorahs, COOP, PNS and reports from here. If there's anything to add or fix i'd be happy to take a look at it.

yeah i dont pay attention those, however, in this case its probably right due to it raining/when he took the sample/etc. but ive seen some wild numbers in those ratios on cocorahs all the way from 100:1 to 1:1

Hey, just looked up an interesting stat that you might appreciate. KNYC has only received a total of 2.5" in the past 22 months

complete wipe out?

Yeah heres the radar for the Super Bowl 2015 storm. 9PM on Sunday. We're really derailing this thread by talking about the past so ill make this the last post on the subject.

Doesn't seem so but the one on Feb 2014 and the one on Feb 2015 both occurred/started on Super bowl evening into Monday. Thats why i thought you meant 2015, but 2014 same thing happened.

I believe you're thinking of 02/1-2/15, which came in Sunday night into Monday, into two parts.

DC to Maine, most of CT got 6-12". Maybe you're thinking of the "jonas" blizzard in late Jan that season. The 2/5/16 special was a wave on a front that had this very long SW/NE movement on the radar. Models had it ticking NW every run leading up to the event, it was kind of a surprise event 24 hours in because beyond that it was mostly forecast to be a whiff.