The GFS has been very consistent over the past 4 days with this storm. It hasn't made a big sudden movements in either direction, similar to how the ECMWF used to be. That's what we would always say about the euro, it doesn't make any big moves inside of D3 or so. Today it's been ticking south but still no major jumps.
I was just thinking about that today, i could have swore when i was in school in the late 90s and early 2000s we never saw cancellations until the morning of, like 5AM. Almost never. Cancelling the day before a storm seemed like it was recent thing to me.
Icon is still solid for a lot of the area, trimed back on the NW edge so up there its rough but for a lot of CT, MA, RI it's still a solid 6-12 type deal. Same with RGEM. But i get it..it's the trending is whats causing a lot of the melting on
god i cringe at the thought of the responses. Maps floating around from the NWS that have 12-18" and winter storm warnings up, and <1" of slush falls. I think ive seen that once. Think it was Jan 13-14 2008
slight but not really. Seems the GFS has handled this storm extremely well and consistently so far, and we have pretty great agreement across the board with all the mesos.
Yeah i noticed that too re: temps. OXC is only at 37 at noon, most of the valley locations and shore are into the low to mid 40s though
Final call. Shifted everything SEWD a bit and highlighted the areas of likely highest snowfall, inland and above 500FT in the new haven county/FF county/tolland/windham hills where 12+ lollis possible.
Increased NYC/LI significantly but didn't feel comfortable going much higher than 3-6 for them given the very marginal BL