The 4 Seasons

HRRR looks pretty damn cold too, not a threat of mixing even close to CT and surface temps look to be in the upper 20s for most of the event

Interior SW CT in the hilly terrain will certainly...see more snow.

No change for CT but we did add some text for NW CT to highlight the potential for the highest amounts and possibly 8" or more locally. For The tri-state i brought the ranges south a bit to include LI and northern NYC for 2-4, then 1-2/0-1 south of there and in the southern city. Looking at bufkit the DGZ looks pretty high up and quite narrow with modest lift, so snow growth doesnt look to be the best. The uvv does look to be somewhat centered in the DGZ, so its not horrible like some storms weve see. 12Z runs were showing close to 10:1 at the shore and 12-13 well inland, so about average. I'm pretty much using just 10:1 everywhere. With these systems approaching from the W with an easterly flow and warming mid levels we usually don't have have the best ratios but that may be offset by some heavy rates near the snow/mix or snow/rain line near the shore. I'm definitely worried a bit about NYC/LI/NNJ area, that area has the highest uncertainty and could bust either way. High confidence for all of CT at the moment.

Whats up with this new thumbs down emoji? It looks nothing like the others stylisitcally and ghetto af...

You check on your boy Kevin? He hasn't posted since Friday morning...for the first significant snowfall of the year statewide he's uncharacteristically quiet

Don't see any reason to change from 4-8 statewide, most of the overnight runs support and increase confidence in that. Still a bit of time to go some may have to adjust a tick up or down depending. Will be looking a bit closer tomorrow to see snow growth and bufkit and fine tune a bit OKX/BOX latest has nudged up numbers, we have a watch for Litchfield now. Tips fav, the Icon seems to be hitting that CT crack pipe at 6z, looks like 8-10 for the state, ha.

EPS 3-run trend, not including off-hour, is shrinking the spread quite significantly and converging on a coastal track that would be favorable for much of SNE. GEPS/EPS seem in pretty good agreement right now with GEFS being the far NW outlier, takes the mean Low right over CT. We're still pretty far out in time ~132hrs but the >6" probs are pretty high for this time lead for a good chunk of SNE...which also have dramatically increased since last run.

OKX throwing out first numbers, high end advisory seems reasonable. 4-6/4-8 for most of the state looks good.

Ice reports i can find are: Norfolk 0.38 Tolland 0.35 New Hartford 0.25 Burlington 0.3 BDL: 0.03 HFD: T Vernon: 0.15 Thanks for the reports, didn't have much to go on with the ice reports, only 7..so take the outline with a grain of salt. Snowfall reports from here, PNS, cocorahs.

33 weenies and counting, now thats gotta be a record. George is gettin sweaty!

Ukmet looks pretty significantly south to me and a bit less qpf havent really looked into thermals or much deeper than that

At this range? practically noise. 18/00z for comparison at the same time frame bc 18z only goes out this far. Looks likes a tic south and a tic less snowfall.

Same with the Canadian mean and its members. Another south tick but fairly weaker with the mean

I use that and Meteo Centre (UQAM). Seems to be one of the fastest and doesn't skip frames as much as TT tends to. It was a popular site back in the day of 14/15/16 era. Don't see much attachments from there anymore though. Numerical Weather Prediction Maps | MeteoCentre.com

Another Tropical Tiddies fan i see

a few more runs and the HRKEV will cave

I don't think so, we're just excited, you know...for like the 99.9% of members who like snow on this board. No one should be expecting anything at this timeframe, but it's a legitimate threat. And given the model trends and recent run-run consistency + ensembles coupled with this putrid winter and lack of snow, it's expected.

too low.

All down hill from here. How do you have it so fast? WSI that far out already? Wxbells only out to 36.

What a drastic juxtaposition looking at the 12/18Z NAM/3K. Just completely dried everything up. Looking at the radar though it looks more like what 12Z was showing than 18. Should have a quick burst of snow/sleet through CT this evening.

Nice surprise, in the 20s now

You got 2" yesterday morning?

72 days and counting without a tenth of snow.

Just using CoCoRaHS

Snowfall progression for CT's 22-23 season.