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tnweathernut

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Everything posted by tnweathernut

  1. tnweathernut
    I think this afternoon it was supposed to fill in and find better snows in northeast TN. Still probably have to get to tonight and hope we keep enough moisture around. I think we will around Erwin to south JC (north and west of that it will be a toss up hoping for renegade snow showers breaking containment). I am guessing roads will be a mess tomorrow morning for anyone with a hint of upslope to their area.
  2. tnweathernut
    You know this about me, but the insurance guy in me doesn't want any part of frigid temps. People's pipes all over the region will be popping off.
  3. tnweathernut
    Actually, Washington County schools are back in person (5 days a week)................... starting tomorrow.
  4. tnweathernut
    Moisture is less deep Monday night, but if the valleys can find some snow bands tomorrow evening and into early Tuesday................... with temps projected in the mid 20s it might look more snowy Tuesday morning than at any point tomorrow with temps tomorrow in the 33-35 range. I almost expect more road problems Tuesday morning vs tomorrow for the valley areas in the WWA. As you say, the mountains are going to get smoked, regardless of what happens below 2500!
  5. tnweathernut
    Interesting. That's really bold from a traditionally conservative entity. Makes me think they are confident of really cold air coming and also confident the storm track stays through the southeast.
  6. tnweathernut
    Thanks for starting this. No doubt some of our mountain chain is going to get white smoked.... It’s funny MRX downplays the valley areas northeast of Knoxville. While I don’t disagree the moisture thins out....... this type of storm evolution with energy left over the apps is notorious for light to occasional moderate snow bands making their way across the area, valleys included. Combine this with temps in the 20s overnight Monday and into Tuesday morning and I almost expect travel issues and school changes here on Tuesday.
  7. tnweathernut
    12z Euro keeps a decent little event going overnight Monday and into Tuesday..... .
  8. tnweathernut
    MRX seemingly overplayed the last system, even when data was indicating reasons to be cautious wrt snow (in east and northeast TN). This may cause them to overreact and be too cautious on the early week snow potential. I realize they have time on their side and it seems minor”ish”, but it’s been really cold leading up to this system .......and although we go warm for the first part, most of what falls after sundown with the upper level support passing almost directly over us Monday night into Tuesday morning could cause many more problems for commuters Tuesday. In short, vs the last system, I think this one has much more potential for impacting travel.
  9. tnweathernut
    Spotter report from my 80 year old dad in Westmoreland in northern middle Tennessee (the man who inspired me to love the weather and especially snow) telling me they have changed over there with some pretty big flakes falling.....
  10. tnweathernut
    At least it's just PRE-squallicane weather...................
  11. tnweathernut
    Love the animation and the thread name. The snow under some of those bands look convective..... wouldn't at all be surprised to see white-out conditions happen under some of those. I remember a couple of these events growing up, where you'd go from sun or moon peeking through clouds to heavy snow and then back to sun or moon. They covered a bare ground in just a couple of minutes. Hope we see some of these convective cells, as portrayed.
  12. tnweathernut
    Lots or ridging in southern Canada to Greenland. Hopefully this will help us. I think it's pretty much a lock for snow showers from the system Saturday. The first system sets up a brief 50/50, so maybe this will also keep the second system far enough south to bring some energy through the TN Valley. It might be wise to start a thread for the Saturday deal. May even want to lump early week in with it since these events look relatively minor and both northern stream dominant. This way, we can keep the longer range discussion separate. Anyone feeling lucky?
  13. tnweathernut
    I feel much the same way. Finding snow in the south is almost like work as you learn more about the atmosphere. It was much simpler when I was a kid, before weather models...... All I had to look at was dad's electronic (heath kit) weather station and the sky outside. It had barometer, wind speed, wind direction, temperature, dew point and wind chill read outs. I am interested in the snow shower activity showing on modeling. The piece of energy rotating through looks good for fairly wide-spread snow showers. Then we wait to see how much cold we can keep for the following week as moisture builds to our south. At the very least this winter has been completely different than last winter.
  14. tnweathernut
    I'm pulling for this timeframe to produce. Looks like it has potential. Biggest inhibitor would be the hyper-active northern stream shearing out the southern stream, again. Hope we can get enough separation between vorts in the northern stream to let the southern stream amplify or hold together as a weaker system with plentiful moisture. It's likely way too much to ask a lone northern stream piece to dive into the backside of our southern stream at just the right spot.
  15. tnweathernut
    Agree. Just hope it’s got a leg up in figuring out where we go down the road.
  16. tnweathernut
    With lows generally in the 20's and daytime highs in the mid 30's to around 40 from now until the system comes in I agree we will need to watch it. If the timing can speed up a 1/2 day there would likely be morning road issues somewhere in Tennessee (most likely west)............ not to mention the possible issues in northern MS and possibly AL where heavier precip will be closer in proximity.
  17. tnweathernut
    Yeah, definitely don't want to come across as saying it's not happening. My post was regarding Tennesseans. Just when looking at everything there doesn't appear to be much of a chance for anything greater than a possible 1-2, type of event once to Tennessee. Certainly for our brothers and sisters just south of the TN border in northern MS and northern AL I'd be keeping a much more watchful eye on this one. Chances for a 3-6" type system may set up somewhere in their location.
  18. tnweathernut
    500mb level looks like a mess. the vort is shearing out and the time of day is the worst possible arrival (afternoon) for what light precip makes it up this way. All modeling shows 500 going to crap, so I'd set expectations low and if you see a light snow event consider yourself lucky! Just my two cents.
  19. tnweathernut
    The Canadian at 12z starts its accumulating snow in much the same place as the para 12z GFS, but hits the western and middle part of the state more. Snow isn't heavy once you leave east Texas and western Louisiana, but a general 2-4 up through Memphis, Jackson, and 1-2" in northern middle Tennessee.
  20. tnweathernut
    Nice track for the system next Monday on the para. Shows a nice stripe of snow from east Texas and ENE into SE Tennessee. Doesn't get a lot of moisture back into Tennessee northwest of there, but the threat is there and on most modeling not named the regular GFS.
  21. tnweathernut
    When in doubt, let the purple finger point the way for snow.............. once you see it you can't unsee it.
  22. tnweathernut
    Really hard for me to believe this is a rain system for Tennesseans early next week..... .
  23. tnweathernut
    From what 500 looked at around day 3 I would have thought this was going to play out MUCH better than it did. I am guessing there will be numerous 12z euro individual ensembles that get the job done.
  24. tnweathernut
    This edition of PBP was interrupted by an uninvited guest at just the wrong time. Remove that weird vort dance at 500mb between 108-126 and the surface would have likely been snowing/mixing in much of Tennessee too. Side note. My PBP's might go back into hibernation after that attempt. lol
  25. tnweathernut
    There is an interaction with the main vort and a secondary vort at 500, around hour 108-120, that causes the trough to go negative and ends up raining on most of Tennessee 138-150 (though parts of TN may start as snow or mix). There is yet another vort that enters the picture, also in the northern stream between 138 and 144, further complicating an already complicated picture. Long story short, the system looks to be there............. but how the northern stream interacts/disrupts is likely going to lead to much wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst meteorologists and hobbyists alike. This could break bad or good and forecasts beyond 3-4 days should be taken with a boulder of salt.
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