Chinook

My area had wind gusts at least 25kt at KFNL each hour from 15z Tuesday to 01z (this hour), so that's 32 hours in a row, I think. The 06z GFS and 00z ECMWF, and sort of the 12z ECMWF today had a big snow storm in the next Monday-Wednesday time frame. I think that's low probability for snow over 4" but we'll keep an eye on it. Really, it is about time for snow to make a return.

my area had wind gusts to 48mph-51mph, and it really was windy for over 12 hours, I think edit: wind gusts over 25kt for 24 straight hours

Severe weather possibilities for tomorrow will exist just after 12z until much later, possibly. This is the 04z HRRR updraft helicity tracks. SPC has 10% tornado (enhanced) close to the Gulf of Mexico in AL, GA

radar-detected rotation tracks in a 2-hr time frame. (Alvarado TX in center of image)

The latest HRRR shows some multicell storms coming into Fort Worth by 04z (11pm central). Surface-based CAPE is a decent 1500 J/kg at this time, and possibly similar most-unstable CAPE by this evening.

Welcome to spring! My place has not had significant snow over 0.1" for a while. I'm pretty sure the snow will come back some time. As for this week: the GFS has 25 kt surface winds and 55kt winds at about 2000ft+ above ground on Tuesday. I think a high wind warning will happen for some counties of Colorado on Tuesday.

two recent confirmed tornadoes at McLain MS and Gordo AL, near Tuscaloosa AL easy to identify large rotation tracks in the last hour

there has been a TDS right next to GWX radar. Hopefully it stopped being a tornado when it went by the radar

Jackson MS radar display showed that this tornado, that happened in the west side of town into downtown, sort of looked like just a burst of wind heading toward the radar

The 06z Day-1 outlook has a large moderate risk with a large 15% hatched tornado outlook by the SPC, also including a 45% hatched wind outlook for this same general area that is covered with the 15% on this graphic. Of interest: SPC discusses later evening tornadoes, separate from the main squall line. Below is the 6th paragraph of the discussion text.

western Tennessee, enhanced risk

The 00z CAMs have several updraft helicity tracks up by Memphis on Wednesday, with the squall line. It's possible that this segment will have a hard time getting the higher CAPE values and discrete storms, but it still seems like this may be a very active area. This seems to be a very analogous situation to last week (3/22), when several tornado and wind reports happened north of Jackson Mississippi within the large squall line, a little north of the moderate risk contour.

It's too bad this larger upper level low will not bring a lot of precipitation to the West these days. There has been some rain in California, but otherwise only scattered rain and snow in the Mountain West region. My area will get rain showers tomorrow. For me, Saturday was upper 70s, and yesterday was only 59 or 60 degrees due to clouds. Today, there were upper 40's as of late morning, and then got to the upper 70's in the afternoon with the mixing of the afternoon. Now, there are kind of washed-out clouds at sunset, with no real sunset colors. I didn't get any pictures of lenticular clouds today, but maybe somebody posted some pics of UFO-shaped clouds on twitter somewhere. The US drought monitor has been updated to category D0 and D1 in some parts of Colorado. and now we have a second fire, and I saw that smoke this afternoon

I was driving south yesterday on I-25 and I saw some of the smoke from the Boulder-NCAR fire.

If you have a 33% chance to be above normal, do you have a 67% chance to be below normal? If you have a 33% chance to be below normal, do you have a 67% chance to be above normal? The logic of the portrayal of the outlooks has never made sense in the last 20 years.

small but tornado warned circulation near Troy (radar is from Dayton)

the Gilmer TX debris signature popped up in the last 10 minutes, just a bit south of town

this tornado was behind the rear flank downdraft and moved NNE into the heavy rain

things are not shaping up to be a big storm. The NWS official gridded forecast now says 1.9" for Denver, 3.6" for the Palmer Divide. This value for the Palmer Divide is about 10x less than what the GFS had 3-4 days ago. and.. a whole 3-6" for the mountains!!

I am thinking maybe the chances for numerous tornadoes may get going at 00z-02z, meaning that nighttime tornadoes could be a threat.

Looks like Denver city got 1.10" of total precip from this week. I'd say the 00z GFS/Canadian/UKMET keep up some decent hope for heavy snow for the Palmer Divide/I-70 east, southeast Colorado, and the Denver foothills. Roughly 0.4-0.5" water equivalent of snow for the mountains above 9000ft is really not above normal for a storm

For Monday-Wednesday, the ECMWF just doesn't want to predict as much snow for eastern Colorado as does the GFS and others. Maybe that's a sign that there are many details yet to be worked out.

Here is the 1:00AM radar/precip type plot. There was moderate snow with higher reflectivity at Denver, but still rain at Fort Collins-Loveland, and a recent changeover to snow at Cheyenne (6100ft)

there have been reports of 5" at Federal Heights/Northglenn and 6" at Littleton, 10" Parker, 7.3" at DIA

There are just some days when Mayjawintastawm shouldn't look at the GFS to about 120 hours. And this is one of those days.