Chinook

for those interested, the geomagnetic activity is pretty high tonight. Space weather prediction center seems to predict weak auroras right now but I don't know why not strong auroras.

Model ensembles and the NWS show a higher chance for maybe 1"-2" of rainfall above normal for Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico. (note: Tropical Tidbits plot is for Day-3 to Day-9)

Precip from Denver metro area. There was up to 2.29" in the southeast sector (Foxfield? Aurora?)

flash flood and reported 60mph wind gust in SE Denver

heavy rain heading downhill toward Mayjawintastawm's place. (even though I don't know what area that is, exactly) Flash floods warnings near Glen Haven, Big Thompson Canyon (not sure how serious this is)

The 30-day and 60-day percent of normal precipitation. The Colorado River basin and New Mexico have had a lot of precipitation above normal since June. For Jul 16 to Aug 14 the map shows it has been at about 100% near Denver, but I think that may have varied a lot. Some areas from Greeley southward, to around DIA got missed by heavier precipitation. On the third map, US Drought monitor shows a change to the 1-to-2 drought categories more drought right at I-25 but a change to a 1-category less drought at some of the adjacent mountains, and much less drought in southern Colorado.

forecast 48 hr precip from the 18z NAM, the NWS, and the 00z HRRR

There has been 48-hour precipitation of 0.4" to 3.0" in the mountains of Boulder County, Larimer County, and Clear Creek County. Has there been a flash flood at Estes Park? I don't know.

The Atlantic is pathetic

link: https://krdo.com/news/2022/08/08/almost-30-people-were-rescued-in-denver-after-severe-flash-flooding/

I have moved. I will keep posting sometimes. I've seen quite a bit of rain and some reasonable lightning/thunder in Ohio since I've been back. Funny thing. When the dew point is 75 and you are at sea level, your nose doesn't dry out. I keep looking for the 00z NAM data to be available at 8:00PM, but it's not done by 8:00PM Eastern time! since I left, Loveland got 1.26" of precipitation and Fort Collins got 2.98" of precipitation (I picked a couple of CoCoRAHS stations) my "secret" web sites in case you wanted to know For winter snowpack https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/quicklinks/imap https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/gis/images/west_swepctnormal_update dot png (change that dot) https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/co/snow/products/?cid=nrcseprd1432263 other info (not winter) https://mesowest.utah.edu https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/ https://aviationweather.gov/metar This is my only view of the mountains now. picture of aspen trees near the upper end of the Poudre River

some rainfall amounts over 3.81" in Illinois/Iowa

This retweet from Reed Timmer is a little less dramatic. Same tornado, I think.

Fort Collins had the 5th warmest July (tie). The value was 75.1 degrees, which is higher than any monthly temperature for June or August. With a couple of very rainy days, Fort Collins had 3.84" of rain, which is effectively about 2" above average. This value over 3" was pretty localized, as Loveland Co-op station got 1.46" Denver, 2nd warmest July (also, 2nd warmest month), only 0.99" of rain Boulder, 5th warmest July Greeley, possibly 2nd warmest July maybe 1"-2" for the general Denver area, which, I guess is not too bad if it is up near 2".

48mph peak wind gust at O'Hare is sub-severe but pretty strong

they kind of went crazy with warning polygons

Tomorrow night, CAM models show numerous thunderstorms will happen in the area from Chicago to lower Michigan. The 12km NAM shows 4000 J/kg of CAPE along with the 90 temperature, 76 dew point in Michigan before the storms. The shear values should be in the upper 20's knots or maybe a bit better. That's marginal for severe storms, unless the 500mb winds somehow get a little stronger.

flash flood warnings for Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Fountain, Woodland Park, east of Colorado Springs tonight.

This may have fulfilled the tornado report quota for one storm

For those interested in severe weather, you may be fascinated by this recent Youtube video about events in April 2022

Hey, I posted that on the 20th, over in Central/Western states. Surprisingly, I'm not in -that- heat wave.

this has got to have some impressive nighttime lightning and possibly 1" hail near the city of Fond Du Lac

This supercell dropped 1.25" hail near Janesville Wisconsin

that is a well developed rear-flank downdraft or hook echo, considering that's more typical for the Midwest

high temperatures 6 to 10 degrees above normal for a week (although mean temperatures were less above normal)