Chinook

It was up to 93 at the lower elevations of South Dakota yesterday, up to 80 degrees at Cheyenne (6100 ft). That would be like a million degrees at sea level. (well, maybe not.)

I've been looking at some various case studies of tornadoes/outbreaks on Youtube. I just took a quick search of Youtube and also the internet in general, and not a whole lot has been said about the devastating Mayflower-Vilonia tornado (9 years ago). The Mayflower-Vilonia tornado was 41 miles long and started near 0000z and continued for about 1 hour. It was the only tornado in Arkansas on April 27, 2014. Storm reports and tornadoes were widely spread out within the Moderate risk segment in Arkansas and Missouri. (note: HIGH RISK issued at 20z in Arkansas) On April 28, there were dozens of tornadoes in that day's Moderate risk segment. back to April 27th: There was CAPE up to 3000 J/kg in southern Arkansas with a stationary front near Little Rock. With the easterly winds north of Little Rock, 0-3km SRH maxed out at a large value of 600 m2/s2. (Also supported by Little Rock special sounding at 21z, 612 m2/s2)

First day in the upper 60's without some sort of crazy wind machine, chance for rain, that sort of thing.

Here is an approximate damage path of the March 31st EF4 tornado in Iowa, as per the information shown. I'm not sure how close to the town of Keota the EF4 level damage was.

My area has been fortunate enough to have two days of sunshine. Hmmm. That makes me think of 2024, when an eclipse will come through the center of the US. I am thinking of driving to Texas because it's climatologically cloudy here.

a bit of tornado trivia

The models have 77-83 degrees this week.

Here's the stats for the 3/31 from Wikipedia. I consider this to be somewhat of a super-outbreak with now over 100 tornadoes confirmed

Unfiltered storm reports on three previous days. Up to 161/990 preliminary unfiltered reports on March 31st.

Now there are have peak winds gusts of 47mph at Defiance without thunderstorms

The radar is kind of a mess, with only 4 severe warnings in the country right now. I'm not used to temp of 77 with dew of 63. It's like insta-summer. I'm used to getting the first few 70 degree temps out West, not too long after snow, with a dew point of 20 and a view of the snowy mountains. The SPC really kind of busted with the Arkansas area yesterday, you know, like 100% bust when you look at this map.

Almost baseball size hail north of the warm front near I-80. That's pretty nasty considering the storm doesn't even seem that big, and the surface based CAPE is 0. VIL and reflectivity maxed out near Princeton, so that must be the region where the large hail developed.

A little morning-time rear flank downdraft

There is 1.5"-2.5" in Fort Collins and Loveland, some snow in Denver. A massive section of Wyoming and the Dakotas have a blizzard warning today.

I don't think the CAMs have a lot of storms, if you exclude the FV3 monster storm near Chicago. (seriously, that's like a 10mile wide updraft helicity track. I mean, it could represent a realistic tornado threat that's not a super monster.)

Maybe this is just a case where the 12z CAM models see a cap of some strength. Then, none of the CAM models have much convection at 00z-04z tomorrow night. The SPC is essentially saying they're just really wrong.

The newest rage in town: CAPE with embedded hodographs

While we are waiting for this to get on the Day-2 type time frame, I'll post the CIPS analogs, with Apr. 2, 12z data, for two different sectors. The way the data goes into the sector of the analog system must make a significant difference as to which analogs are picked. And get this: None of these analogs are what Ryan Hall mentioned as the best analogs, 4/26/94 and 2/29/2012. Midwest sector Southern Plains sector.

I think this is a sneaky non-TDS as the velocities aren't very high. Any thoughts?

Does this qualify as a derecho?

Here is definitely a bounded weak echo region with the supercell shape and tornado warning. It seems like the velocity data has just been showing convergence rather than an easy-to-view mesocylone

There are storms on every side of Dallas/Fort Worth. Several new small storms are popping as potentially a new group of supercells. Maybe one of those could become dominant.

I think the storm near Stephenville has transitioned from being mainly a hail storm to maybe getting a bunch of rotation right now.

some storm chaser probably has a good view of a wall cloud, or even a tornado (no direct evidence of a tornado yet.)