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Chinook

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Everything posted by Chinook

  1. Chinook
    There is a reference to CASA radar in this tornado warning. This could be a dangerous situation if there is a tornado on the ground near the metro area. (not sure if a tornado is on the ground)
  2. Chinook
    tornado reported at Laguna Park
  3. Chinook
    The SPC has put out a slight risk for severe weather in mid-Texas tomorrow. Some NAM forecast soundings west of San Saba at 00z Monday (36 hrs) show 1000 J/kg of CAPE, 59 kt effective shear, 410 m2/s2 effective SRH. Convection-allowing models all seem to have a squall line around San Angelo.
  4. Chinook
    It looks like the CAPE will be higher at nighttime than in the daytime. There might be a half-dozen storm reports at 4:00AM. The convection-allowing models show showers and thunderstorms traveling or developing some 300mi+ eastward across Texas in the time frame of 06z to 12z. There could be a number of severe storms. It would be very climatologically unusual for a severe storm at 3:00AM on January 2nd.
  5. Chinook
    NWS Cleveland created a map and a snowfall summary for the lake effect snow that happened recently http://www.weather.gov/cle/event_20161208-1210_LakeEffectSnow
  6. Chinook
    flash flood threat in New Mexico. WPC mesoscale precip. discussion: SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ERN AZ INTO WRN NM INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS... CONTINUED TRAINING AXES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN AZ INTO WRN NM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FROM LOCALIZED RAIN RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR.
  7. Chinook
    Typhoon Haima, now a lot weaker, is approaching Hong Kong, and the large ragged eye is visible on Hong Kong radar. JTWC predicts it will make landfall ENE of Hong Kong.
  8. Chinook
    Colorado State/CIRA web page for Typhoon Haima. You can click on archive, that is a link underneath each current picture. If you want to look at how this storm developed, pick begin and end frames for different types of satellite loops. note: enhanced IR images should give you lots of frames to loop. You could also view individual pictures since the beginning of the storm. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=WP252016
  9. Chinook
    In my opinion, it looks like it has a 40nm wide eye and -80C temps in the CDO region, all the way around the eye. I think there might have been some -90C temps in the CDO earlier today. this is from the Typhoon Haima JTWC discussion #17.
  10. Chinook
    another beautiful picture (water vapor channel) of these two terrible storms. Typhoon Sarika made landfall today on Luzon Island, Philippines. It may have brought a large amount of flooding, but I did not check news sources about this. Typhoon Haima takes up the center of this image, with cirrus outflow extending from the equator to 20deg north
  11. Chinook
    Blame it on the TV show
  12. Chinook
    JTWC Prognostic Reasoning on Typhoon Megi (75 kt)
  13. Chinook
    Severe thunderstorm warning was issued for Norman before the Ohio State- Oklahoma game started, I believe, as people were waiting for the game to begin. (or during the game?)
  14. Chinook
    Typhoon Malakas at about the strongest point. The people of Taiwan must feel like a bad weather magnet recently. Typhoon Malakas maxed out at Cat 4, 115 kt at Sept. 16, 18z, reasonably close to Taiwan. Image is from Sept. 16, 2020z. Now it is moving toward southwestern Japan.
  15. Chinook
    tornado sirens blowing in downtown Odessa?
  16. Chinook
    a couple of landspout tornadoes (sort of out-of-season now) in CO/KS and hail in Texas/NM. Locally 4200 J/kg MUCAPE, 52 kt effective shear, 210 m2/s2 of SRH near these supercells. (forecast sounding near Andrews, TX)
  17. Chinook
    There have been some heavy storms in central Plains today. There has been 5-7" of rain northwest of Omaha, and flash flooding is going on there. With over 70 storm reports today, it has been the most active plains day since 9/4. Several storm reports in New Mexico.
  18. Chinook
    WPC forecast has 2.0" for Oklahoma City, Lubbock in 5 days, 1.75" for Kansas City. Kansas City and Wichita have already been very wet in the last 3 weeks.
  19. Chinook
    New JTWC forecasts take it south of Taiwan, meaning that there could be a greater wind speed when it reaches China (perhaps 105kt) near Chaozhou-Jieyang-Shantou metro. Shantou harbor is next to the sea, urban population 5.3 million.
  20. Chinook
    I thought the Japanese were beginning recon in 2017 (after many years of no recon.)
  21. Chinook
    JTWC now forecasts Meranti to be 160 kt in 6 hrs (2:00AM Eastern). Isn't that close to Haiyan's peak intensity?
  22. Chinook
    recent landfalls on Taiwan Typhoon Soudelor (early August 2015) Typhoon Dujuan (late September 2015) Typhoon Nepartak (early July 2016)
  23. Chinook
    Now I found satellite imagery that is up to date. This one is from 0120z September 12 (9:20 Eastern). I think the yellow areas are -80C, so that is some very cold -70C areas in a CDO wrapping around a narrow eye. Obviously the satellite based T-number must be very good and there is good outflow to the east and north.
  24. Chinook
    There seems to be a lot of consensus concerning Typhoon Meranti. It has strengthened from 45kt to 100kt since the last time I posted. The GFS ensembles and HWRF predict Meranti to approach Taiwan from the southeast and track through Taiwan. The JTWC now has a max intensity forecast of 135kt at Sep 13, 06z, a few hundred miles from Taiwan. Note: Category 5 Saffir-Simpson is 137kt and greater. Typhoons are not usually given Saffir-Simpson categories. satellite image is from 0320z, which is from last night...18 hours old, it is 2134z right now. I have no idea why I can't find an updated satellite image.
  25. Chinook
    Was Houston vs. Lamar football game delayed about 2 hrs by lightning? Not sure. I saw that it was delayed at some point today. It didn't look like a thunderstorm was over downtown Houston. I am not that interested in the final score, but if weather played a factor in a long delay.
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