Chinook
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Everything posted by Chinook
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How bad could this be for Tokyo Bay, in winds and surge? -
According to JTWC, Tyhoon Lan peaked at 135 last night (daytime for that area of the world), which is ever so close to category-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
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Hi! In the mid-range, this storm could be near Tokyo (see the JTWC forecast.) In the long range, this powerful storm now looks to recurve more east of Japan, rather than heading more north towards the mid-Bering Sea.
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kind of a cool satellite image already, with -80C cloud tops.
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Developing Tropical Storm Lam in the Pacific could make for some dangerous situations in Japan, and some interesting satellite images as it tracks northwards and merges with the westerlies, after being 130 kt. (Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.) It's kind of amazing this could go from 10 degrees North to the Bering Sea or nearby.
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W. Pac is at 54% of normal ACE, with some above normal SSTs in the basin. What killed the W. Pac tropical season?
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That's a lot of red (50dBz) for October
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Smallest enhanced outlook evar? (maybe?) Regarding the mathematics of saying there's a 30% chance of severe within any single point: Most of the enhanced outlook is within 25 miles of every other point.
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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 8
Chinook replied to wxmx's topic in Central/Western States
Texas/New Mexico may get a bit of rain -
The latest recon hit 955mb, and about 96 kt flight level, possibly 83 kt surface wind.
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This was tweeted by Chris Bianchi (@BianchiWeather). This must have been what the NHC was referring to.. wind gust of 128mph. wait a second, that's 138mph. sustained wind of 103mph.
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station LTBV3, a national buoy system station (possibly at the beach) on St. Croix. monitor the gusts and barometric pressure plot. Pressure plot should get a lot more extreme! http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LTBV3
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St Croix airport - 49 mph gusting to 85mph. That's the first observation over hurricane force gusts. METAR: TISX 200200Z 03044G74KT 1/2SM +RA FG VV014 25/25 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 02064/0157 PRESFR P0014 T02500250 $
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St. Croix airport, peak wind 60 kt (69 mph) from NNE
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One confirmation of a tornado in the last few minutes * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Spink County in northeastern South Dakota... * Until 815 PM CDT * At 740 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Spottswood, or 12 miles south of Redfield, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters confirmed tornado.
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Just wanted to show this hi-res GOES-16 image of hurricane Maria from earlier (14:44z) - image processed at CIRA, Fort Collins, CO. Retweeted by Dan Lindsey, who probably set up the system to make the looping image.
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Irma's landfall on Florida mainland was 1938z, sounds like daylight, 3:38PM
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Irma's track was between St. Martin /Sint Maarten and Tortola, British Virgin Islands, which, if I remember correctly, both got hit by the eyewall of Irma. This means that Irma was about 79 nautical miles or 91 miles northeast at the point of Irma's track closest to Maria's current location
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Oranjestad, Sint Eustatius, Netherlands Antilles is getting 28 kt gusting to 52 kt (greater than 50 kt is a storm-force or a severe thunderstorm). St. Croix Airport has weaker winds now, but will soon be going up.
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St. Croix is now getting 20 kt gusting to 33 kt wind - almost a tropical storm. They are in the light rain.
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Most recent recon data plot from Maria (Tropical tidbits data plots) shows the pressure may be closer to 910mb than 925mb. 914.6mb on the other zoomed in data plot. What will the official center fix pressure? 916mb? Is this lower than Hurricane Irma had at any point? I think it's close. Did Irma get to 915 or 916 mb?
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The latest HRRR shows several storms developing in this area. Many of them seem to be linear-- there are no highly intense updraft helicity tracks. I think tornadoes are possible, but there probably won't be many. I think there will be few reports of 2"-3" hail, probably several reports of 1"-2" hail and wind damage.
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Here is the 00z European EPS spaghetti plots for Tropical Storm Maria. I am very concerned that this will cause damage and loss of life on several Lesser Antilles islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and The Bahamas.
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Typhoon Talim, now west of Okinawa and northeast of Taiwan, has been rated at 115 kt (Category 4 starts at 113kt) by the JTWC. It is heading for landfall in southern Japan soon with a wind of 100-110 kt. The storm should track over a considerable section of Japan. JTWC discussion mentions that it likely peaked at 127 kt a few hrs ago.
