Chinook

Last night, we had another period of wind gusts of 30-60mph. I was in Fort Collins at 10:00PM and there were some 30mph wind gusts blowing leaves all over the place. There were brief 60mph winds recorded at the west side of Fort Collins. There is a winter weather advisory for Denver for tonight and tomorrow, with a winter storm warning from the Palmer Divide down to New Mexico border. NWS forecast for Colorado Springs: The GFS and other models show another cold front and snow for WY and CO on Sunday-Monday. Our area already has a temperature departure of -2.9F for the month (Denver.)

This is new. I didn't see this on the NWS web page yesterday.

Some normal weather last evening changed to windy weather of 30-50mph wind gusts in the Front Range cities. For my area, the greatest gusts were in the middle of the night at about 4:00AM. Currently, DIA has the strongest gusts of the day.

18z GFS has 8" of snow and 0.91" of QPF for downtown Denver on Wednesday to Thursday. This is likely a case of the GFS being precipitation-happy in the 120hr-168hr period, but it's worth watching. 12z Euro prediction:

GFS/ECMWF have snow for Denver area on Wed night to Thu morning.

What do you think about this large sector of +2C to +3C in the north Pacific? Will there be a ridge in the Gulf of Alaska for most of the winter?

That is a large area of similarly cold temperatures in the composite. A couple of notes: the last month or so has had a strong ridge in the Southeast and Ohio Valley. I wonder if this will break down this winter or maybe it will continue to pop up and help weather disturbances affect the Upper Midwest, as opposed to Mid Atlantic or Southeast Other note: this looks like a cool snake!

Now that it has snowed in Denver and this area, we will start the winter discussion for our region. To recap: On Wednesday it was 78 degrees here, but a cold front with 30 mph wind gusts brought the temp to about 39 by evening. On Wednesday night, I saw thunder and lightning with numerous graupel bits which would normally be called 1" of snow. Then, when I got home, there was just a bit of graupel on the ground. Then, Thursday morning, my place got 2" of snow or more. Then, on Thursday evening, there were snow flurries when I was at work. So, I had to go out to my car and clear off another 1/2" of snow off my car. I was wondering if the road would be icy, but I didn't notice anything slippery. Today, things are getting back to being a somewhat normal chilly day.

24-hr precip may have been as much as 9-16" near and southwest of Galveston

Maybe Oklahoma City is getting a very wet August? By the way, 87mph wind report near Piedmont, OK. I have heard that there was a probable tornado near Edmond.

Japan's radar web site shows that the eyewall has tracked over Tarama Island recently. This is close to Ishigaki. https://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/

GFS has two storms in the next few days in the Pacific. Typhoon Lekima, farther west, is expected to be 130 kt (Category 4) near Ishigakijima, Japan and also at 80 kt near the Chinese landfall point (JTWC)

Here is a map of the storm reports, up to 647pm eastern. There is one report of 3 waterspouts. Obviously this is a notable severe weather day for this area.

There is a confirmed tornado near Lubbock. The radar images have looked even more impressive after the tornado was reported

Possible tornado at Toone, Tennessee, 60 mi east of Memphis

Several tornado warnings today. As mentioned before, there have been 2 tornado reports near Rienzi and Burnsville MS. Now this may be a tornado in one of the larger towns, Columbus. One tornado report at Artesia.

33dBz and 44mph peak wind gusts for essentially blizzard conditions at Cleveland lakefront area - otherwise, fairly windy (10 mph - 30mph) inland, some areas of 33 dBz on radar.

I love a good cloud pattern

This potential storm system is now getting into the WPC 72-hr snow forecast

Bright-banding on this radar image makes the snow look super-heavy, as opposed to just sort of heavy. Congrats on 5" of snow in the Oklahoma City vicinity. I hope the freezing rain didn't affect any of you negatively.

I drove from Akron to Toledo on Saturday, and I saw snow on the ground to about Sandusky. I think some instability snow existed in the general area.

If the models make a small mistake with the low-level temps, this snow north of OKC turns to ice or rain. The low-level profile here from the GFS is good for heavy snow, it's just so close to 0*C up to 700mb. The 500mb heights are so high, that the 1000-500mb critical thickness line is in Kansas, about 10 miles north of Wichita. We have a long time before this is a short-range forecast, so the models will obviously take some time to resolve the exact rain/snow line (or freezing rain/sleet profile, if that exists.)

If anybody wants to *fantasize* for Oklahoma based on 1988, check out this Jan 4th-7th 1988 storm total plot! I think I see an 18" contour in there.

As of right now, the models have something very interesting for Oklahoma in about a week

I posted a Euro image like this 6 or 7 days ago -- and a rather serious storm did develop today. The 500mb is quite as closed off today as that particular run of the Euro 6 or 7 days ago, but it did sniff out a major low pressure in the region. Now, look at this for next Saturday. The Euro precip shows rain in MO and snow for Nebraska and north KS.