Maestrobjwa

Just out of curiousity...just how often does a NE suppression pattern setup like it did in 09-10? Lol Gotta be rare, right?

Man I hate our geography sometimes...lol Which one appears to be winning?

Sigh...just don't know what it's been this year...just some kind of anti-weather excitement forcefield over the I-95 corridor. Just no matter what...but the shore has done well all year. Just can't get anything in! It's been a year of blocks with just enough bad timing to make us just miss...smh Hope next year is better!

So essentially...around here, if ya see stretches of downright, teens/single digits frigid snow is less likely (which happens more in a La Niña?) But, if ya see temps that are the average to slightly below-average...more storms (but even then ya need more atmosphere stuff to battle that 32 degree line just cold enough?) Mercy...he have got to have the most complex region for getting snow in the entire country!!! Now, I take it 2014-15 had said frigid temps but also included above-average snow because it was more of a negative-neutral?

Hey, I ain't too concerned about one more crap winter...because if history is any indicator...the next one COULD be good if not great! Our time is coming...lol

Sounds too much like last winter...lol So instead of Nina driving that effect, it would be an east-based NAO?

That'll do it...lol (what is with their measurements, anyway??)

Yeah that is kinda weird...wonder what the total rainfall was for that year? (this year it just feels like it's gonna keep raining buckets...lol) P.S. That 09-10 snowfall amount isn't quite accurate is it? Wasn't it like 70 inches or something? Lol

Dude I was just gonna ask if you could post an extended version of that chart, lol (I actually started looking up the precip totals myself...but had no idea which years were Modoki!) Thanks! Seems like 3.5-5 inches of rain is the sweet spot...lol (also interesting how we had a few instances of back-to-back Modokis....Wonder if that's setting up to happen again?...If so, our odds oughta be pretty good for either this winter, next winter, or both!

The 54 inches of rain on the year are just a mirage...lol

I think that's only fair since we've had to endure a two-year Nina (blech). And also, if I were a betting man...that would put the odds of a better winter next winter instead of the upcoming winter...But hey, maybe we can kinda score this year and score more next year? Minimum + Niño ftw!

This weather novice doesn't always understand his posts...lol But what is this "Walker cell"? And do we know what it's doing now? (the fact that 94/95 and 06/07 keep coming up in the discussion is one reason why I have some doubts about this winter...)

Oh great...more data and wobbles to obsess over during a threat...lol (insert happy hour EURO!)

Now hang on...Do we usually benefit during the winter just before the minimum or just after? (Which side were we on in 09-10 and 95-96, for example?) I looked at a chart recently and I couldn't tell if the most recent minimum fell in 08 or 09 (of course winter 08-09 wasn't much, snow-wise, lol But then kaboom the next year! Same in 1994-95--not much then, but kaboom the next year!)

WE'RE ALIIIIIIIIIVE!!!! *Pant*...*pant*....Phew, who knew Hurricane Florence would turn into a cybercane and completely wreck the entire forum for days???? Wow!!! But from the digital wreckage...we rise!!

Nah, he's just a sound sleeper...lol It must've been all over the city (I live in the area not far from Morgan State and my house was rockin' and rollin'!)

Yeah that was some serious rolling thunder and seemingly extra-bright lightning...wow!

Now was 1977s also a solar minimum year? (Is that why you said a crappy enso prevented a snowier winter?) And is that to say solar minimum doesn't always come with a minimum? (Or would even an okay enso with a minimum be enough?)

Wonder if that's how it went down the last time we had a neutral after a 2 niñas...lol My expectations for this winter are so low that it's hard to imagine being too disappointed...I'm putting my cards in 2019-20 winter with a mod Niño! Now doesn't the hurricane activity mean that any Niño we get this year at all is gonna be really weak? (Or is it related at all? I was thinking in terms of the wind shear and such...Nino is bad for hurricanes, right?)

Blech...(for those in the mid-Atlantic, that is!) Expectations lowered...but I wonder if this is a transitional year, and we get an El Niño next year? (Has it worked like that before?)

Well, technically this would be the third year in the row since we did pull off the mega-blizzard in 2016!! My guess is that even if this year doesn't work out...maybe next year we get a mod El Niño and epicness! (I've ready half-given up on this winter until we see some more positive trends. Coming off of La Niña last year? I just don't trust it, lol)

Er...Wonder if that means that a neutral may end up being the final result? (And that perhaps winter of 19-20 will be El Niño?)

I read through some of it...For this winter, it actually isn't as snow-happy in it's predictions (in fact, this is the first one in the last several years where it didn't call for 1 to 2 feet of snow at some point). I get it just as a hobby...and it is kinda entertaining when it's right on a particular week (like this week...called for humid!). I find that it'll get certain things right on a given day/week (regardless of the time of year). So I realize I'm a bit on an island here, but I think their formula hits just enough times to call it a little more than luck.

Now this here...everytime you've said it I look back at this decade as a whole...And we've already succeeded that number with 4 (unless you don't count 2016). And really...I think the 60s were also an exception to that rule! (Sweet mercy we got a lot of snow that decade! At least BWI did anyway, lol) That being said...what haven't liked hearing is analogs being thrown around for 1994-95 and 2006-2007....yuck, lol

Hi there! I'm from another forum, but I'm checking winter discussions across the boards: So, when ya said almanac, that got my attention because it always baffles me the times during the year when they DO get something right...How in the world do you think are they doing that? (Again, of course it ain't right all the time, but when it does hit it's kinda scary, lol)