Maestrobjwa

I believe you mean Feb 9-10 (and the flowing Wednesday) 2010?

I personally don't have a problem punting the first or second week of winter...For me, since most of our major snowfalls historically don't come until after that, that's fine. But if this +AO malady eats into the prime period...that WILL be crappy. (man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) That being said, I'm still hangin' on the every 3-4 year trend for one-footers at BWI--I'll ride that horse till' the streak breaks! It'll be 4 years since 2016...(hey, we got a fluke in 2006 to keep the streak goin, right? )

Actually HM did make a vague mention about something in the pattern looking "sorta like"the "transitions" at the end of Dec 1986 and Dec 1982 for the Januaries that followed...lol (of course I could be reading a bit too much into it)

Is this similar what we know it will look like for this current stretch? (also, I sent ya a DM)

I see...so in that winter we managed to take a swing during that tiny window and just happened to hit a homerun, lol I mean, I'd call that thread the needle in a more general sense of getting a good swing during a very brief favorable period! And what do ya know...that one time was all it took for the "1 foot storm every 3-4 years" trend to continue (otherwise we would've had a drought of footers until 2009-10!) Hopefully we can get at least one swing like that this winter...even if things don't get more favorable overall (but hopefully they do)

Random question: Now I see back in 2005/06 we got that one storm that dumped about a foot at BWI and then not much the rest of the winter (I don't know why I don't remember that one, lol)...Now was that one of those situations where we lucked into something during a variable pattern (with hostile periods, I'm guessing)?

Now...I'm wondering if that means this ends up like the 2005/06 winter when got a single 1 footer and not much else, lol (I'm still bettin' on that 1 footer because of our recent every 3-4 year cycle for those!)

Next 8-10 days or beyond that?

This statement has more truth than you realize...lol

So we're essentially facing the same setup as last year? (correct me if I'm oversimplifying). If so...wouldn't that make the winter forecast easier, since you could just go by last year, and go from there? Both weak ninos...the Hadley cell thing you mentioned: would it stand to reason the process will pretty much go the same way? (of course I'd like better than last year, but...if we're dealing with this "not coupling to the atmosphere" again...I won't put my expectations past last year)

But wait...then how do we know what kind of ENSO we're in? (And are we reaching a point where we can't rely on history/analogs as much? And if we can't...how do ya make predictions? I'm particularly thinking about last year and how a lot of people got it wrong...partly because a weak El Niño was showing yet didn't behave like one. Are we entering uncharted weather territory overall due to the changing climate? If so...woe to the folks trying to make accurate predictions, lol

Can anybody point to a reliable source for ENSO history? (I'm looking to compare snowfall during neutral winters for my region, lol)

Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! I mean look, he messed up...but because of his otherworldly level of narcissism, he could not let it go (which led to the media not letting it go) because he can't stand looking bad even in the littlest thing. Mercy...we can't have this with weather warnings--lest people be less likely to react to a real threat!

Lol

Eric Webb found some humor in the situation...lol

Maybe I might be a bit biased for my own region...lol Where I am that blend ain't the greatest (more in the "okay" category like last winter!)

Except we really don't know where it's gonna hit yet...so ya might wanna hold off on that, Analogon! (gonna start calling ya that because I've seen somebody dissect analogues to the minute detail you do! )

Oh stop...Man, you lucky stormtracker isn't in here...you know what's he'd tell you to do, lol

I hope not...Could you clarify what you meant by "this isn't new"? Certainly the PAC hasn't been hostile all decade, right?

True...And just the winter forecasts in general done by even the more knowledgeable and experienced last winter...fell hard! And it was like "Uhh, we don't know why it's doing what it's doing", lol Last winter seemed to baffle more forecasters than usual (but perhaps I'm just imagining it!)

Harder??? I mean my goodness...last winter, I don't think anybody got it right (at least not for the northeastern part of the country). I mean it didn't do what anybody thought it would...So if this winter is gonna be even harder to predict, then just throw predicitons out the window, lol

I mean...how long is "awhile"? We had a neutral in 2014-15 didn't we?

No kidding about that! Line would probably stop right at Baltimore City, lol

Yeah, I mean...the snow greed in me wants to be jealous, but...just being able to go outside and be surrounded by it...(and using my shovel for the first time since 2016)...nice start to our prime climo! Can't wait to see what's on tap in the coming weeks!

Dang all the schools went and flipped the off switch, lol