Maestrobjwa

I knew somebody was gonna bring that up, lol (I meant to add that I was excluding that year) Yeah but look how anomalous that is. I have trouble factoring that into what I'd expect from a nina because that happened just one time in 130+ years--so probably not a good idea to count on that. Safer to bet on what they've normally done aside from that one data point!

Uh...dude? Nobody here would want that result--not just me! After the 2016/17 and 2017/18, I'm not sure why you're acting like my dislike of ninas isn't logical (check the stats and see how well we do in ninas here).

Will we ever forget the infamous Cantore out in the rain photo? Lol

Man NO!!!!! La nothin'! If I had to choose between a nina like 2016/17 or 2017/18...and a winter like this, I'm tempted to pick this winter. See low snow totals + folks just east/northeast of ya cashing in feels worse than low snow totals and everybody getting screwed. The close misses are the heartbreakers...and la ninas, by nature, seem to have more of those than the other ENSO states. Best place in MD to be during a la nina is the beaches (or perhaps Northeast MD). Otherwise, heartbreak...

Man, no!! Now look, if we are gonna fail, then fail properly...just go for the historical record (or at least not such an occurrence recorded since 1882). of not even a trace of snow recorded in February. But of course...I could see us finding a way to fail at failing, lol

Hello! Mid-Atlantic dweller here...Now I'd caution against thinking the euro being on an island is a good thing. Last Friday it was on it's own showing a cutter a cutter up here...until all the other guidance caved to it the very next day, lol Not to say it definitely happens the same way, but...just something to consider!

I think a lot of us up and down the East Coast feel like spiralling. I see you guys haven't had it much better...it's hard to know how to just accept a winter this bad.

Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it?

4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned!

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

Man I hope he's right...because again, I'm starting to wonder if that could be our last shot.

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)

Could someone post?

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before) I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! Point is...we've been here before!

Mercy this forum is somethin' else, lol What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. Next weekend is perhaps another swing yet to be determined. See, I think my relative calm about this winter may be a bit illogical...because I believe in the every 3-4 trend saying BWI is due for a footer this year (and all it would take is for one of the opportunities to come together a la Jan. 2000. Would love for it to be next weekend because we're nice and cold for most of next week. But I'm trying not to put all the eggs in that basket!)

Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range...

Well thankfully this is just day 10 and we don't have to overanalyze it!

How is that even possible, lol

Lol...I was just asking because I've had to shift through weekend posts to look for posts about how things up top were lookin' beyond that! (Not looking past this threat, though...but I am looking for anymore potential in the pipeline!)