Maestrobjwa

After last winter, I don't even wanna see ns even TRYING to screw something up even on a d10 prog (hopefully that potential vanishes in the next several days)...that L in the north is burned into my memory, lol

@psuhoffman On another note....thank you for the in-depth explanation! Wow--between you and poster in another forum giving me a dissertation about whether there was any history of the blue blob and the ENSO...I've been to school today! Yes...modoki truthers...certainly seem to be of those out there, lol But interestingly, I had just read something in another article yesterday about 2009/10 not really being "modoki". Now, I take it modoki is thrown around as being an automatic snow-indicator (which draws the ire of the truthers? Lol)

I have tried focusing on your frozen water analogy to ease my mild obsession...update: it didn't work I try and remind myself that all snow melts eventually...but my emotions won't catch up to the logic, haha But I digress...Learning all too well the uncertainty with this hobby. It's just...Ninos (weak-to mod, that is) work out the best...and looking at the awful failure the last two years have been, the thought of some unusual feature trying to screw us over for the entire winter is...yuck (especially now when we got a nino, low solar, favorable AO...the combination that always nets us at minimum a productive winter) On the flip side...having an unusual feature that ENHANCES our snow chances...the thought of that is epic!

Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol)

Are there any records for an el Niño year where it DIDN'T move and remained a feature?...

Was just talking to my mom about that earlier...that series of years where we always seemed to get something frozen on that day...has it returned? Lol

Ha...0z GFS tryin' to muster up something for Day 8

No--NOT funny!! Lol Coming on the heels of last year's torturous run of southern/eastern sliders, and with the pattern flipping this threat window...that kind of southern fail would just be.....mercy. If that were to happen, I would dub that the "ghost of nina 2017"!

So...since we've had some very early hinting around in the long range for some potential between the 8th and 11th...I still have my Almanac Watch in effect Old Farmer's Almanac says snow between 4-7th Regular Farmer's merely says "Snow showers and scattered flurries, then clearing" for the same period; while predicting a coastal system (p-type not specified) for December 16-19th... So both say "flakes"...with the Old Farmer's seeming to predict more of a storm (although it did not say "snowstorm" just "Snow") So we shall see!

About that....as I go through weather twitter, there seems to be an opinion by some that this isn't a modoki niño and rather it looks basin-wide...(I can't quite tell, but...I think cranky is among those with that opinion) So uh...is it or ain't it?

Which is gonna make it a little nerve-wracking to track knowing that if we miss there's no telling when the next opportunity will be...

How much work? Like a month? (And wouldn't that be like...a record or something if that were to verify? And how often do we see this in a Niño?) That ain't bad enough to ruin the winter, is it? Lol (and why in the world is the PAC modeled to be so hostile?)

Uh...have there been a few (very) stray flurries around this afternoon...or have I just been hallucinating? Lol (particularly up in the Cockeysville area)

Important in what way?

Beat the record...now we just runnin' up the score, lol

Already? Is there a correlation between cutters going into Dec and cutters the rest of the winter?... I mean...does having rainy coastal in the fall have any bearing for the propensity for snowy ones later on?

As long as the AO doesn't rage positive...no time for panic, right @psuhoffman?

So...ya used to ski on a sperm mountain?

Yep--I think it was the surprise snow-rain event that put us in Baltimore over the top!! Now we're just running up the score...lol

Is that something that could ruin even an El Niño winter? (Now you said the only duds in the weak-moderate nino years were because of a +AO....anything else that could sink things?)

So in other words...tune in next Friday to see if it's gotten any clearer? Lol

Coming off of back to back fail years (or 3 years if ya don't count the one hit blizzard of 2016)...patience is gonna be even shorter than usual, lol

ALMANAC WATCH So, I'll say this if the almanac has something for a particular date range AND current LR guidance gives even a hint at something in the same time frame! (But again...NOT a forecast or anything...just stating what it says!) So, for late November and December: Nov 28-30: "Stormy; rain/snow/sleet" Dec 1-3 "Fast-moving storm from the Great Lakes spreads gusty winds, moderate-to-heavy precipitation into New England, the Northeast." **Could this be the clipper showing up on some models out in fantasy range? (Though the Nov. 28-30 is where it shows up...so we shall see!) EDIT: Seems even the more conservative Old Farmer's Almanac also predicts snow during the first week of Dec...gonna be interesting to see how the LR evolves!

UGH!!!!! Always somethin'...lol Can we still hope for a 500-700 mile correction in the modeling (I assume it's far enough out to not rule out seeing that?)

So I take it this would come down to the precise timing of those waves, then?...(And that "pac firehouse"...is that what you guys call a "hostile pac"?) And that precise timing of how much space is between waves...is difficult for the models to figure out right now?