Maestrobjwa

You're fortunate to be able to travel for snow...

Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it?

4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned!

Welp, I was holding put hope for a PD weekend miracle, but.....if that is no longer possible...guess I gotta start grieving the winter (and the 3-4 year trend. What a way for it to end if that does indeed happen). And I'm already fearing for next year if we either get this same pattern, or even worse draw a la nina. Man if that happens next year, that's gonna be another gut punch. If we repeat this ENSO state for another year...that'll be another. This is absolutely the worst that could ever happen...and I am straight up depressed. I'll move on eventually...but just seeing the futility of this winter play out in real time makes it difficult because you're constantly reminded how bad it is...and it seriously dampens the days. Hard to get excited about things...winter ain't winter...it's just awful. Every morning I wake up to more bad news about the winter and it starts the day off terribly. Snow=some happiness (during JF in particular...) I can't move (for many reasons) and cannot make a trip, so I'm stuck. I don't care if I'm ranting...I've got every reason to, atm...I just want this month to be over already.

Alright PSU if we actually get something to go the right way the same weekend you happen to be out of state...I'm afraid we will not be able to permit you to return until prime climo is over!

Hello! Visiting from the Mid-ATL forum...We had a similar discussion during the Fall. One theory that was floated was in reference to a "lag" effect (I cannot remember what study was cited)--supposing that sometimes it was the winters after the minimum during which the minimum from the previous year may have affected blocking (for example, the previous solar minimum was listed as ending around December 2008. Of course it wasn't that winter but the following one that had the blocking. Now perhaps someone else may want to chime in on this "lag" theory.

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

Man I hope he's right...because again, I'm starting to wonder if that could be our last shot.

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)

Could someone post?

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before) I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! Point is...we've been here before!

Mercy this forum is somethin' else, lol What we need is swings right now...this weekend is one swing--maybe we get a single at best. Next weekend is perhaps another swing yet to be determined. See, I think my relative calm about this winter may be a bit illogical...because I believe in the every 3-4 trend saying BWI is due for a footer this year (and all it would take is for one of the opportunities to come together a la Jan. 2000. Would love for it to be next weekend because we're nice and cold for most of next week. But I'm trying not to put all the eggs in that basket!)

Starting to wonder if day 9 sneaks up in the medium range...

Well thankfully this is just day 10 and we don't have to overanalyze it!

How is that even possible, lol

Lol...I was just asking because I've had to shift through weekend posts to look for posts about how things up top were lookin' beyond that! (Not looking past this threat, though...but I am looking for anymore potential in the pipeline!)

Err...is it time to make a separate thread for this?...

Man I despise that emoji, lol Why man? Ain't the setup after that what we're focusing on more anyway? And could you elaborate a bit on what you mean by "wants no parts of it" (imo it does make it a bit confusing when people will say things like that without saying exactly what--we folk without full EURO access rely on you guys' descriptions!)

Figured it out! (I forgot to wait for it to embed automatically before posting)