Maestrobjwa

So if it were to go down like this...all of this would be because of the pac or something else?

I wouldn't punt to the last week, but I'd punt to the middle of the month after the weekend threat...because of history alone! Only once in 140 years of records did the cities get a major storm (warning level at least) between Dec. 25th and mid-January: and that was January 1996. So it doesn't usually happen for the corridor, lol

As I've been saying...that is essentially our best window during the window. Jan 15th-Feb 20th (for warning level events we don't get many before mid-January unless we get it before Christmas (rare). And we don't get any the last week of February for some reason either, lol I daresay we've gotten more snow in the first week or two of March than December...lol But that could be wrong (I'd like to check the numbers on that)

So we got snow, whiff, or rain on the table...time to play wheel. of. solutions! (now, of the two fail solutions, which one is more a possibility? Are things moving away from a rain solution, or is it still pretty even?)

Bob, it's the last week of December...so that's almost guaranteed to happen that week, lol (doesn't snow significantly during that week or the next around here!)

And therein lie the crux of snow life in the Mid-Atlantic...Yes, the way we can sometimes go 50 shades of bust can be frustrating and outright gut-wrenching. And yet...does that actually make the snow even sweeter when it hits? Would we feel the same way if we got snow all the time?....I've always wondered how I'd react to getting an average of 70-100"+ every year, lol I'm not entirely sure! It's just different when it happens down here...

Ah that explains it (sorry I can't see people's location tags on the mobile version, lol) Was about to say...6 inches doesn't happen on the last week of December in the cities! Haha

We did? What was it, a few flurries or a dusting? Lol

Hey @Bob Chill (or somebody else who may know)...I'm trying to remember...was the awful Dec 2010 nina-induced miss the last time we didn't have to deal with a hostile pac to end the month?

And again, why does it keep going bad in mid/late December every single year? Smh Can we just assume it'll do that every mid/late December from here on?

Yeah what's up with the 18z runs often appearing to look "better" anyway? Why does that happen?

Yeah, yeah I gotcha...I just don't wanna see that alleged 10% get even lower for whatever reason. There's a reason we only get 2 footers every 6-7 years and 1 footers every 3-4 years (that second one I'm starting to hang my hat on...no matter what weather chaos has ensued, that's repeated itself, lol) Overall...it's like, you know how hard it can be to get snow here. You kinda expect it...but it still sucks when it misses even if you could see it coming.

Can I vent about the hostile pac in here? Lol Seriously, of all the atmospheric obstacles we've had since 2016, I think that has frustrated me the most. Why can't it just get right???? (this ain't no possible climate change crap is it? If so, we're gonna have problems) crap Dang you PAC ...DANG YOU!

But we were never in the game for anything more than a thump o front end mix, right? Lol

Man just the thought of that happening two years in a row...*rips hair out* Thankfully it's a far away fantasy as of now, lol

Well, one thing we can bet on around here...it absolutely will not snow significantly (like more than a couple inches) the day after Christmas...nor the rest of the days until mid-January, lol It's a strange quirk, really...January 9th was the earliest--and that was the highly anomalous 1995/96 winter. But other wise? All others fell between Jan 14th and February 20th...So I never look for anything just after Christmas, or New Year's--always tends to fail the most during that period for whatever reason!

Out of the question, lol Tok many Baltimore times! (no matter how much I love snow!) But I wouldn't rule out 7-10 miles north

Seems to still be a mix of snow and rain...about 50/50

Must be that close...I think I'm starting to hear some ping-ping outside

But IF we are to run into PAC trouble, gotta wonder if this could be our last window for awhile (which, again, wouldn't be much different from what we've seen the last several years...the time between Christmas and mid January has become a null-zone, lol)

Let's say that this issue does indeed happen...do you think we recover by prime climo time (that is, Jan 15th on), or does it even cut into that?

I think that's Iso's real name.

For me, a shortened climo window is if something would cut into the Jan 15th-February 20th prime climo window. But if something just pushes things down the road to mid-January...that would be pretty much normal, lol

Oof...What is it with that? That would be a carbon copy of last winter! (where even you had a very slight meltdown at the end of the month due to the pac air, lol) Why does this keep repeating itself? Now, personally...I never expect any snow events between Christmas and mid-January (because it literally never happens down here for whatever reason...only exception was the Blizzard of 96! And I think that was linked to the La nina somehow). So, if we get into a shutout pattern, I could bear it...as long as it doesn't extend past that...because then you're cutting into prime climo with that crap!

And even in the blockbuster 2009-10 year...didn't it warm up by Christmas? (I remember a mildish rain washing away most of the snow, lol)