Maestrobjwa

So if it becomes less like those years...then what years would it resemble instead? (Of course I'm asking since those other years were great for my region, lol)

But wait...last year's eruption wasn't nearly strong enough to influence anything, right? And when did this dramatic cooling of the AMO occur?...

Great analysis as usual! Now I've got a few questions: So...what exactly is the QBO now? (and where do we need it?) And what influence does that have on the AO? (And if the QBO doesn't help the AO go negative, what else can?) I saw in another analysis that El Niño winters with a positive QBO didn't have a lot of analogs (that was the an analysis from Raleighwx) (And speaking of that...so I take it there's no sure way to tell at this moment what the AO/NAO will do a month from now?) But overall...I guess that NAO will be the point of greatest interest? (Now that the Niño is practically here?) And that's really crazy that the two best matches for where we are right now had polar opposite results, lol

Okay, so...is this officially gonna be a Modoki El Niño this year? If so...I wanna ask about why some of the weak Modoki's we've had the last 60+ years failed...(like 1952/53, 58/59 76-77, 94/95, 04-05,)

Hey I already put most of my chips on that winter anyway...lol (just because I'm leaning on the just-after solar minimum trend...but of course we've had a couple big ones have come just before the minimum as well, so...who knows? Either way, I see this winter and next winter as one thing...with moderate confidence that we will score in one or the other (or both!)

Ack...sounds too much like what the Niña induced the last two years...don't even, lol But like @psuhoffmansaid...no real "duds" on that list...average was the minimum amount...so at least that's something, lol

All years that preceded winters that were at least average snowfall...Welp, I'll take that over nothing at all, lol And yeah, I was a little surprised at how active the hurricane season was...then again I'm a weather novice, lol I just thought that with enso approaching El Nino, the season would be much less active! Now...you said "that tells you something about the Atlantic, MJO, and El Niño"...could you elaborate a bit? What does it tell us?

Gonna be a long 30 days...lol Now I am one prone to look at trends that may not have a scientific based but seem to correlate. Based on the chart I just shared...my expectations are tempered. But if you go full weenie I'm goin' with ya!! Lol

@BTRWx's Thanks Giving Now that we're seeing our last precipitation for October...thought I'd repost your chart. Now uh...we're below normal...and according this, that only worked one time in 60 years preceding a Modoki: when it was moderate strength! All the weak ones seem to have failed... So...correlation or coincidence? If correlation...welp, may have to suffer one more winter, lol

Any potential QPF maps for this storm? (I don't think I know where to find them, lol)

Lol at the forecast for western MD...35-100!!!

After the last few years...it might be advisable NOT to look at such things...lol

Oh stahp.....you're killin' me, dude! Lol That being said...any data on whether nor'easters in October meant anything at all for the winter?

YES!! Oh so close!!! Haven't seen this in the cold months since what...the one-hit blizzard of 2016? Lol It Atmospheric memory exists....I hope it doesn't forget this! Haha

Yuck...well hey, after all the snow that fell in the 60s...that probably made that snow failure easier tolerate, lol But but overall...that's an aberration in a weak-to-moderate Niño, isn't it? (Has that happened any other time in recent decades?)

Was about to say...I hope we don't have another crappy foliage like last year (that was awful, lol)

Wait--the 68-69 Niño only had 9.1"? Wonder what happened that year, lol

Hey @BTRWx's Thanks Giving Think these will get us to that magic 3.5 inches of precip forthe month? Lol

Perhaps this is going a bit off-topic, but...I'm curious: Ya know all of the blocking we had this past March? How in the world...would that have looked...if we had been in a Niño pattern? Lol

Some twitter commentary on the blob...(some throw out how it came and disappeared in Fall 2016... Now, if it does disappear...what else will we need to happen?)

So tell me more about this "blob"...I've heard a couple of you reference it, but I'm not clear on what it does, exactly!

For me, that's one of the factors that actually has historical weight behind it in terms of how it relates to a good winter...And with a possible weak Modoki setting up (and hearing some rumblings that perhaps it could turn into a two-year event)...I'm hopeful that I'll be using my shovel after a warning level event again either this winter, next winter, or both! (Wasn't there only one solar minimum in recent decades where we DIDN'T cash in somehow? Barring that terrible setup...we oughta be in pretty good shape, right?)

You got that right....Welcome to winter in the MA...where 10 scales need to be balanced just so to get snow...and can be one tip away from horror...lol

Hey @BTRWx's Thanks Giving Michael might help us get to that 3.5 inch sweet spot for Modki Octobers!

Some consolation bands reaching Baltimore...lol