Maestrobjwa

Now I have a couple of questions: Now, Ji mentioned the Jan 2011 storm...now I remember that one went from rain to snow. Now why is it that rain-to-snow scenarios don't happen as often around here as the opposite? And also...was 2011 a case of a storm making it's own cold air?

I think Chill kinda temporarily checked out (and he said he's been busy) and psu is just taking a break from the boards in general for a couple days. I'm sure Ji's around...lol

Hey, ya never know! (and I can't give up weekend either, lol)

I've been feeling the same way...Of course part of that may be the "historical trend" part of me that believes in the 3-4 year rule for 1 foot snowstorms, lol But in general, it does seem like whatever we get may be in a short window or two!

Something tells me...that IF we get any warning-level snow this winter at all...it's gonna be a foot that comes all at once...and then that's probably it, lol (ala 2006)

Oh is that what it does? (now I don't have anything other than TT, so I had assumed that wasn't the same low, lol) What the heck?

In what way?

Not sure whether this is freezing rain or not...temp on phone app says 30°...32° at TV Hill

I get ya...but of course you know we won't be able to help ourselves, lol

Oof!! How'd ya do that? Glad I'm not alone in feeling a bit better about next weekend! Pieces seem to be moving around...maybe some baby steps towards something better the next few days? (6z GFS crushed NE, lol Since that wasn't there yesterday...and the EURO also tipping ever so slightly to a different solution...I'm still gonna keep watching! Still a ways to go, though)

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

Yeah that Oz Guidance is a real wizard with the snow (sorry, couldn't resist. Now back to storm focus) So is the amount of moisture we get gonna kinda be a nowcasting thing? (how well do the models do with dry air and such ahead of time?)

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...

Man I hope he's right...because again, I'm starting to wonder if that could be our last shot.

Whoa boy.....so now we REALLY need next weekend to somehow trend favorably! Might be then or never, lol (barring a March 1993-style miracle!)

So you're saying that it's unlikely unless something changes, or you don't see things more favorably the next few runs? (trying to figure out if we need to just toss this one or not...would be a shame seeing as it may be our last shot--at least for now. And you guys don't sound too optimistic about early February right now so...hope this can trend better!)

It was supposed to be 40s today? Lol I'm lower as well: currently sitting at 34.

Could someone post?

So basically it's just a bad track that screws us in what would otherwise be a decent area of opportunity?...(what's going on up top to cause that, and is there any chance it could recover?)

Accurate, lol I mean that's pretty much where we've been since the blizzard of 2016! (which, ironically, came about a week after he signed that dang contract!)

Hope we can get a surprise tomorrow...because it looks like it's gonna be awhile after this, smh

Yeah I was wondering why he said "the last two years" when the last half of 2019 appears to be the actual solar minimum?

Yeah and getting back-to-back-to-back 30+" seasons was kinda rare too, lol (although some, for some strange reason, like to discount 2016 because it all came at once!). So this snow "drought" really isn't anything major by historical standards!

I knew somebody was gonna come back with a cynical batting analogy, lol But think about it...after hitting the equivalent of 5 homers in 2010--but then, look how long it was in between then and 2014! Then boom, boom, boom...three above average winters in a row (with 2016 being a single homer that was a grand slam, lol). So now, here we are, 4 years later...and all it takes is one homerun (we've been here before) I make the argument that there are other periods in our history where snow lovers could be (and probably were) quite cynical, fearing "oh, it may never snow again" (like the early to mid-70s), and then boom. 1977-78, and 1978-79. Then a big one in 1983. Then a layoff...1986-87. Etc...And the most recent trend is not going more than 4 years without getting a foot. Does that 100% guarantee anything? Not necessarily...but it is the most recent trend, so I'll ride with it unless it breaks! Point is...we've been here before!