Maestrobjwa

Lol I've been meaning to ask about what the EURO was saying! (seems the GFS has been waffling a bit...but overall, does it seem like a lighter storm than the driving rain it was advertising a couple days ago?)

Dang...So right now it's basically a model war for determining the fate of the winter? Whoa boy...gonna be a long 10-15 days, lol (but at least we'll finally know something by then...)

And the only time we ever got a big snow this early in January, lol

If we're extremely lucky? The Farmer's Almanac will be correct, lol (they said 4"-8" inches in the "Northeast" for this date range. Of course, the 4" may be closer to our max...but who knows? )

They've been making out like fat rats since last winter, smh

Good news is we've had plenty of wet football practice this year...so there is that, lol

Oh yeah? Shoot...(and the 12z GFS does have the yellow right over us near gametime, too, smh Home field advantage...go figure)

I guess it's no missing that rainstorm next weekend, huh? Smh Bad timing

It snowed last January...lol But prime climo is pushed to mid/late January, though--I never expect anything before then. (This year it's shaping up to be February at the rate we're going)

Meanwhile...the models continue to show a dang rainstorm for next Saturday...rain football AGAIN, smh So not only is the pattern crap and warm...the Ravens finally secure home field advantage and now it looks like the old "rain on the weekends" theme seems to want to start up again....CRAP!!!!!!

Yeah I don't care if this is still 8 days out...I don't like seeing this. Rain in the vicinity for the game. Gets outta here by our 8:15 game time this run...but knowing our luck we've had with home weather this year, would not be surprised if it slowed down and delayed until the game is over, smh Hope this will he wrong!

I can't see how anybody can sleep on KC, lol If/when we see them, that's gonna be a dog fight...I feel a bit better that would see them here instead of up there, but...still gonna be a challenge!

Meanwhile, next weekend might be...wait for it...rain. AGAIN...smh Still 8 days out, but knowing our luck with the weather this year...that's gonna be exactly it.

This is unfortunate...because that means one less we can snow here now. If it can only happen during moderate Niños (since obviously last year's weak one also didn't work under these new climate conditions), I'm wondering if we're in danger of only getting legitimate snows an average of 3/10 years per decade as opposed to our current 4 or 5/10 years. (I mean mod ninos...why are those only once or twice a decade, anyway? Smh) If climate change is now stealing lowering our chances for snow even MORE...we need to appreciate whatever we get, however we get it (ESPECIALLY warning level snows)

I'm not sure we got any more than 3 or 4 inches (will have to check the official record, though). And with last January's 4.8 inches...we still technically haven't had a warning level event verify here since 2016, lol

In regards to the solar...it's possible this winter further makes the argument for the lag period between the minimum and any blocking benefits we get from it (as we were discussing a couple months ago. Doesn't seem like the lag period is always a given--we certainly benefited in 1986-87 and 1995-96, lol). If we only reached the minimum THIS year and not last, it could be that we don't feel that until next winter...(and even then it may not be guaranteed--although in our more recent decades, we have benefited from the previous 4 solar mins. It seems like the one in May 1976 may have lagged for a year resulting in the 1977-78 winter. Connection?)

Booo...I don't get the appeal golf...lol (only thing I get any measure of enjoyment out of is the long hole-in-ones! ) But I digress...I've always had the long game in mind for winter. Knowing that the times we score don't usually come until after Jan. 15th...I have no issue punting the first part of January.

So you're saying it doesn't look like we get that blocking in the foreseeable future, or?

Snow-lover's version of a Stephen King novel...smh I hope that could happen...at least give us something to offset that nightmare scenario!

And that would mean a little more time in the "warm" phases?

Thanks for sharing (although I couldn't read the study in it's entirety because of the paywall). But what would you say the consequences of that expanding warm pool would be? (or is that the unknown part? Lol Sounds like it's saying that it's hard to tell what exactly it will do to the MJO. But what about other things?)

Now, correct me if I'm overgenaralizing...and perhaps my worry isn't too rational...But I've always had a nagging fear of this being the new normal (that is, that we'll start seeing this every single year). I mean, I guess 2 years in a row doesn't mean much statistically, but...I'm just wondering (maybe this is more for the global warming thread...where I hesitate to traverse, lol)

@psuhoffman Yeah man you don't have to sugarcoat anything...just calling it as you see it. Yes, it sucks that things are setting up this way...but there's no need to shoot the messenger. I mean...personally, if we gotta punt half or more of winter away I'd much rather know it now and just snow-grieve the loss than have the heightened expectations we had going into last year. Will be nice to just be surprised in a good way.

I believe you mean Feb 9-10 (and the flowing Wednesday) 2010?

I personally don't have a problem punting the first or second week of winter...For me, since most of our major snowfalls historically don't come until after that, that's fine. But if this +AO malady eats into the prime period...that WILL be crappy. (man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) That being said, I'm still hangin' on the every 3-4 year trend for one-footers at BWI--I'll ride that horse till' the streak breaks! It'll be 4 years since 2016...(hey, we got a fluke in 2006 to keep the streak goin, right? )