Maestrobjwa

Oh yeah? (and how will they know Huh...Keep wondering whether we benefit this winter or the next! (results seem to be mixed...and there were a couple times where we didn't benefit much. But the last three times, we have!)

Well I mean...with this particular stat, ya gotta hope there's no correlation--because none of those years except 2009 preceded good winters, lol

Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! I mean look, he messed up...but because of his otherworldly level of narcissism, he could not let it go (which led to the media not letting it go) because he can't stand looking bad even in the littlest thing. Mercy...we can't have this with weather warnings--lest people be less likely to react to a real threat!

I hear ya...but, seeing as last year's disaster threw all of the models that failed (and that we usually rely on) into doubt...it's kinda hard not too! Man I got trust issues with all them seasonal models now, lol (maybe they just don't work in weak Niños!) I hope they work better in neutrals...because last year was just...awful. Hope in the future the science/technology can avoid screwing it up that badly!

Didn't we have a weak PV last winter? Sure, it gave us decent cold, but...didn't do us any good snow-wise!

Ya know...maybe this is too simplistic, but...after last winter, it seems like we're better off relying on the history of the ENSO state we're in. Had we relyed on that and ig bored the rest, we could've predicted the 15"-18" inches we got, lol (didn't see any weak Niños that had much more than that...but I could've missed it) La Nada is the only state where the result really seems to be 50/50

Well...if we behave ourselves better this year, perhaps more good posters like him might come back! Must be better this year.

Lol

Eric Webb found some humor in the situation...lol

Maybe I might be a bit biased for my own region...lol Where I am that blend ain't the greatest (more in the "okay" category like last winter!)

Except we really don't know where it's gonna hit yet...so ya might wanna hold off on that, Analogon! (gonna start calling ya that because I've seen somebody dissect analogues to the minute detail you do! )

Oh stop...Man, you lucky stormtracker isn't in here...you know what's he'd tell you to do, lol

And what would that look like if we were to finally get a -NAO again? (Now having a super nina spoil low solar and possible -nao would be a poke in the eye, lol)

That kind of thing is only decipherable by the meteorlogically elite...lol

I just skimmed through ut...got lost in some of the jargon though. (not well studied in meteorology, lol Perhaps if I could see a particular example of a winter where this applied) When it kept saying 3-4 years...was it saying that was the lag from the solar maximum or minimum?

No, no, not bitter (really more like lessons learned, lol)...but just...I know several good posters have been chased away from here because some of the crap we see in here. So when I see somebody doing the very thing that probably chased folks away, it's kinda frustrating. I'm resolved to do better myself...just want folks to do the same!

So...could we go back and look at which side of things we were on in 2009-10 and 1995-6? Something that caught my attention last year when folks started talking about the minimum...When looking at a list of the yesrs each solar cycle over the last 100 years or so is estimated to have "started" and looking at the corresponding winters--the winters where we benefited from it were usually either just before or just after the estimated start of the cycle (now I could not, however find any concrete dates that indicated where the minimum bottomed out--so I could only go off of the years where the next solar cycle started. (Also looked at some charts of solar activity...will post a couple of them in a second)

That's the reality...@EastCoast NPZ I would also suggest you google "BWI snowfall" and download the PDF...you will see exactly what PSU is talking about. There is a pattern of ebbs and flows are throughout our history (with the exception of that truly epic run we went on all through the 60s were 18 inches was the MINIMUM we would get every year, lol BUT...if you look at what happened in the 70s? 7 consecutive winters without cracking the 20 inch mark--and only one of those even went above the median amount of 15"! So...it balanced out and we paid the piper, lol But no other decade in our history has ever looked quite like that! Sir in all fairness...you made so many posts like that during the winter that it was difficult to tell whether you were joking or complaining this time! My apologies for not seeing your jest, lol

Oh stop--it's not even October yet...and this post is already in mid-winter form, smh Do you not realize that this is precisely the kind of post that drives the better posters away from here? Now I'm trying to do better this year--and I suggest you do the same...Last few winters were underwhelming overall, but we all know that...please stop.

You don't say...wonder how strong the correlation is? Hope it will have some meaning! Now which forecasts are the sst-derived ones?

I think we just need to assume it won't be there until it actually comes back (if it ever does!) and analyze accordingly! I'd much rather focus with that assumption than even considering it a possibility (and the inevitable Houdini that results, lol)

So...is a non-existent -NAO during the winter months the new normal? (hope not) Or is it just on some decadal cycle as some have suggested? Been gone for a long time now...(2012-13 I think?)

I hope not...because wouldn't such a strong jet still end up screwing all of us (NE included?) over more often? (would kinda suck if that never-ending "progressive" flow and all that stuff were to become more of a norm). Or...is it more about the placement of said jet? (I could be misunderstanding the correlation though)

Lol No, no...They that design those things are experts in their field and I respect that. Biggest thing I learned from the last couple years is just how much guesswork there is...So I guess by pre-2000 standards... perhaps 3 day accuracy back then is equivalent to 7 day accuracy today, and 7 day accuracy is like today's 2 weeks?

Trust nothing beyond 14 days...like, ever, lol For my amateur eyes, all those things like EPS and GEFS lost a lot of credibility...will not be trusting those again until they actually get something right again! Last year had to be an all-time biggest failure for all long (and even some medium) range modeling. Simply awful