Maestrobjwa

Man, the GFS is ALWAYS close to something as long as the thermometer is within spitting distance of freezing and the smallest bit of moisture is nearby...lol If they ain't improved it, does it still have value when it comes winter?

Again which begs the question...will the benefits lag until NEXT winter...or will we already feel them this year?...

Taking the LR with more grains of salt than usual is what will save angst, lol For me...until we get a better performance...LR is barely worth looking at. All the pretty map posting and all that...nope, lol BUT, that's just my weenism...the more experienced ones will remind us that there is still value in LR watching if you know what expectations to have (or not have)

Man, now on this? I still can't buy the theory that it could've been better that year...because that year did what most la ninas that aren't 1995/96 seem to do: snow all around us, lol Was that not more the typical NS issues than luck?

So those numbers were just for the month of December during those years? Now I was asking about whether a December +AO had negative implications for the rest of those winters (i.e JFM) (were your numbers just for December snowfall totals or the whole winter?)

Man do you come here just to do that? Smh

Did someone say a +AO in December was a bad sign for the winter as a whole? @psuhoffman I remember last year you mentioned something about a +AO December being a bad thing once...but I can't remember whether you were talking specifically for whatever winter you were referring to, or in general)

While I'm an Orioles fan...still rootin' for the Nats to pull it out. Don't phone it in yet! (After yesterday, this one has smelled like a Game 7 for me!) And besides...they played better in Houston, lol

Now what I haven't understood about the solar minimum...now a local met (Tony Pann) tweeted a couple months ago that we had the highest number of spotless days since 2009...Now was 2009 already after the minimum? Now one wikipedia source had the official "start" of the current cycle as being in late 2008...so that would support the lag idea. But then...we have 1995-96 winter...where it appears we bottomed out in 1996 (yet we had the crazy blocking and historic la nina winter that preceded that minimum...interesting) Also seemed to take advantage of the minimum in 1986-87...with the minimum being recorded as September 1986 (would that be like a 4-month lag or coincidence?)

Man...why can't they get that thing right? It's becoming more of an embarrassment...(was hoping they'd have a better upgrade for this winter!)

I'm learning...be patient. I'd rather you, like psu, tell me WHY I'm wrong...that's why I post. Learn more that way. Not flying off the handle here...

Well...what looks different from this time a year ago? I'm hearing the same language from others: about the Hadley cell, the Nino possibly "not coupling" to the atmosphere again...SST's looking the same as they did this time last year, PDO looking negative if not more so as this time last year (and hearing someone else in that thread else suggest that that look screamed "trough in the west, ridge in the east")...so I thought perhaps saying last year is a safer bet if you were a gambler...lol I mean, is there anything to suggest we'd see more than last year right now? (NAO?) Could always be less, of course...I never rule that out around here, lol And btw, while I'm coming around a bit more to the reality of "chaos" in forecasting...I still don't like it, lol But I am slowly learning that it's better to expect it to break wrong in higher expectations...and ignore it and be pleasantly surprised if it breaks right in lower expectations.

Mercy above...why do the preliminary elements of this winter look like they're trying to play copycat? Smh Well, at least this time we'll know what to expect if this continues...15-18" for the season with scattered nickel and dime events that'll make decent scenery but not enough to pack a punch...(at BWI anyway...lol DC got the better punch from the January storm!) No lofty expectations like last year!

So we're essentially facing the same setup as last year? (correct me if I'm oversimplifying). If so...wouldn't that make the winter forecast easier, since you could just go by last year, and go from there? Both weak ninos...the Hadley cell thing you mentioned: would it stand to reason the process will pretty much go the same way? (of course I'd like better than last year, but...if we're dealing with this "not coupling to the atmosphere" again...I won't put my expectations past last year)

Indeed...(what's going on in your forum? Lol Been lurking back in there to see any winter discussion, but haven't seen any for like a week!)

Hey, as soon as the Nats broke their glass ceiling known as the divisional round...I've been pickin' them to win the whole thing! That and the fact that the last four years...teams--across all sports--that have either never won championships, or haven't won in decades...have been winning them! (I mean for crying out loud...the Caps finally did it, lol) So I would bet the table if I were a gambler!

I blame all the conflicting signals giving long range forecasters a case of the we-don't-knows...

Maybe the safest prediction is, well...for things to be like they were last year? Lol (maybe with even a little less?)

Anything above 20 is usually my mark...I call that good. 30 is what I call great...and 40+ is awesome!

Well that looks ominous...(and someone commented that such may signal "trough in the west and ridge in the east" (again)...Oof. Just why...If it is like last year, maybe we can still squeeze out our average...(Hey, at least it wouldn't be just us getting screwed...the whole northeast would be too, right? Lol Overall, I'm als)o wondering if we can pull off a nino for a third year in a row next year (2020-21)...or do things go back to nina? (a nina would be tough because then we may not see above average snow for another couple years depending on the strength!)

Dang...so what would this be? Almost ten years since a -NAO in the winter? (I remember the discussion about it possibly being on a decadal cycle or something like that) Smh And if the pac is gonna be less reliable overall because of climate...what else can we rely on?

Do ya think this means that, going forward...we may be less likely to be able to score in weak nino/neutral winters than in decades past? (with all the talk about the issue in the pac...I'm wondering if that means the neutral weak nino winters are bound to look more like last year, and that we'd only be able to score in moderate/strong ninos? Oof...we'd see fewer snowy years if we always had to wait for those to come around, lol)

I've heard others mention this "lag" effect as well...I've been wondering if any NAO benefits from this minimum would come this winter or...if we would have to wait fot the following one (and how long would this "lag" be? Or would the low solar of last year now influence this year? Eh, I'm confused about this...lol)

HM seems to think the Modoki is real this time as well:

HM also seems to think the Modoki could be real this time: http://Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello) Tweeted: modoki https://t.co/9WcA03uHhe https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/1181381284276441097?s=17