Maestrobjwa

Lol No, no...They that design those things are experts in their field and I respect that. Biggest thing I learned from the last couple years is just how much guesswork there is...So I guess by pre-2000 standards... perhaps 3 day accuracy back then is equivalent to 7 day accuracy today, and 7 day accuracy is like today's 2 weeks?

Trust nothing beyond 14 days...like, ever, lol For my amateur eyes, all those things like EPS and GEFS lost a lot of credibility...will not be trusting those again until they actually get something right again! Last year had to be an all-time biggest failure for all long (and even some medium) range modeling. Simply awful

When was the last -NAO winter? 2009-10? Even if it was a couple years later...it's still been a long time. May be better not to even guess at a -NAO being in the equation until it actually happens. Better to see what else we can get to go in our favor! (As far as the ENSO...right now doesn't La Nada seem more likely?)

Nonsense (says this Ravens fan, lol)

I hope not...Could you clarify what you meant by "this isn't new"? Certainly the PAC hasn't been hostile all decade, right?

I argue the Ravens-Vikings game that day was just as crazy (but more so in the last 4 minutes, lol) Never seen one end quite like that one!!

Now I assumed that close misses like that happen in most of our La ninas...Isn't the 2017-18 scenario one of the main causes of La nina suckage throughout our history? (Due to things in the NS being interruptions and such?)

So now....the last time, the low solar in 2008 did nothing for the 2008-09 winter, but yet it helped make the 2009-10 epic? So I'm wondering if right now if we are on the first "year" of the minimum (i.e. 2008) or the second year (i.e. 2009) that had a good winter on the back half of the minimum (and looking back in history, it seems that, with the minimums that surrounded a great winter, the great winter would usually happen on the first part of the minimum or the second (if that makes any sense, lol)

By that logic, you'd think we'd be due! (I know that phrase drives @psuhoffman crazy.. but...to me, history does have some credence. I mean, that's not to say it COULDN'T happen this year...but just that it seems to be somewhat rare)

Now was the cloud debris a result of those storms out there in TN or was it something else?

Yeah I don't get that...did they not factor in cloudy skies in the forecast yesterday? Or were they simply basing it on what it was doing in Tennessee and such?

That's why I don't understand why they enhanced the risk knowing the clouds could reduce the chances!

I didn't think that we usually saw that around here (I was just asking a little while ago about why we don't see "enhanced" that often!)

Oh yeah--looking at the totals, the 60s must've been awesome! (And yet the 70s...prior to 78...probably sucked! Now I wonder what caused that long below average drought?) And how far in advance can the pac jet be predicted?

I'd like to know just how many times we've seen that in our history. Obviously 2009-10 was one time...but were there any others?

Ohhh trust me...I lost trust in long range stuff like that after last season, lol Absolutely useless! Ya think we're heading into an unprecedented climate era where meteorology is gonna be less accurate? Amateur question, but I'm just curious...people both professional and amateur alike were so far off their game, that I'm wondering if this is gonna continue. For once I'd like one winter that doesn't have so much of "I don't know why it's doing/not doing this"...

Hope that doesn't become some new normal...So it's been going and going since last winter?

Hope that ain't the case and we can just stay neutral...would be a shame to waste low solar on a nina! (And on another note, was 2009-10 really the last mod Niño we had? Mercy...do they just not happen but once or twice a decade?)

Uh...does "decent nina" even belong in our vocabulary? Lol When other than 1995-96 did that ever happen? I was under the impression that Nina was just plain bad regardless of type!

Unless it's clear it's gonna be a mod Niño

What was your season total?

Dude we had weak El Niño last year and it didn't quite work...I argue that a neutral may give us a better shot at something than we had last year (neutrals are literally 50/50 for snow) I'd even venture to say we have more above average neutrals than weak Niños...but that's just a guess.

Well, we can wish, right? Lol Now does anyone have any stats on winters that come during the actual minimum? (Although I know the exact deepest point of each minimum is a bit tricky to pinpoint)

Like I said before...would we not save a lot of angst if we simply predicted based on ENSO alone? I mean we could just use our history, right? (I mean, La Niña was a good winter good one time in 100+ years, correct?) So, essentially: La Niña in any form: Lock your shovels away. Go to northeast or to the beaches for snow. Weak El Niño--Average snow...nothing TOO spectacular, but nice scenery snow (10-18" for the cities like last year?) Moderate Niño--Get your shovels ready. Only one in the bunch where above average is actually a better bet Strong Niño--Either one big blizzard or nothing at all Neutral--The only category that really has 50/50 odds...sometimes we score, sometimes we don't. If we follow history, we can pretty much expect things to either pan out more often or not, right? While I have nowhere near the years following our winters some of you have, we have had just about every state in the last 10 years!

So in said philosophy...would anything ever signal a good winter? Lol