Maestrobjwa

Hey hey!! Why oh why did you bring this back up to the top of the thread again?? As if we weren't tortured enough! Lol

Like I said before...would we not save a lot of angst if we simply predicted based on ENSO alone? I mean we could just use our history, right? (I mean, La Niña was a good winter good one time in 100+ years, correct?) So, essentially: La Niña in any form: Lock your shovels away. Go to northeast or to the beaches for snow. Weak El Niño--Average snow...nothing TOO spectacular, but nice scenery snow (10-18" for the cities like last year?) Moderate Niño--Get your shovels ready. Only one in the bunch where above average is actually a better bet Strong Niño--Either one big blizzard or nothing at all Neutral--The only category that really has 50/50 odds...sometimes we score, sometimes we don't. If we follow history, we can pretty much expect things to either pan out more often or not, right? While I have nowhere near the years following our winters some of you have, we have had just about every state in the last 10 years!

So in said philosophy...would anything ever signal a good winter? Lol

Thunder and pea-sized hail here in Balt. City right about now! (Loudest thunder I've heard in awhile!) Heavy rain--must be under a pretty good cell!

True...And just the winter forecasts in general done by even the more knowledgeable and experienced last winter...fell hard! And it was like "Uhh, we don't know why it's doing what it's doing", lol Last winter seemed to baffle more forecasters than usual (but perhaps I'm just imagining it!)

Harder??? I mean my goodness...last winter, I don't think anybody got it right (at least not for the northeastern part of the country). I mean it didn't do what anybody thought it would...So if this winter is gonna be even harder to predict, then just throw predicitons out the window, lol

*Inserts virtual trap door for you to fall through*

And another thing...Was 2009-10 the last time we had a moderate Niño? If so, those must be really rare...

A painful sight! Can't get it to do this during winter for...how many years now? 10? Lol Hope this is just on a decade cycle or something...because then you'd hope we'd be due!

I mean...how long is "awhile"? We had a neutral in 2014-15 didn't we?

That...was frickin' AWESOME!!! Thanks for sharing that! Man, how unpredictable severe can be around here. But I will never forget what that looked like outside my bathroom window (was literally taking a shower when I post power, lol) The wind blowing the sheets of heavy rain down the street...felt like a 20-minute hurricane, loop (basically was!) And then the absolute tree carnage the next day...mercy! That was certainly one for the books!

So...I know this isn't exactly on topic (although this is severe weather)...But I wasn't on these forums during the derecho back in 2012. How much in advance did the various know it was coming? (man that was some epicness that night!)

Any particular reason we don't see hail that often here in the city?

So do we have any more threat of storms today?

Ya didn't get enough over the 365+ days of pure soakage we just went through? Lol

We've got a whole lotta nothin' A whole lotta nothin' we have!

Man if nothing else...I wanna get to 20.1" on the year. That is the normal (average) for BWI...and dang it we are so close. Only need 2.2 inches...so this map, verbatim, might be close to doing the trick, lol

Hey @North Balti Zen @nw baltimore wx @BaltimoreWxGuy Let's all meet in the northwest corner of the city, lololol How Baltimore gets the tiniest corner here is hilarious!

What the hay? I KNOW you must be referring to just March events, right?

Several? It really only hurt us once (December) did it not?

Yeah and yet if the storm tonight wasn't going to bomb out...the Monday storm would end up warmer anyway, right? So it's a bit of a trade...where only a weaker Monday storm can give us snow, lol

Oof!! Just a little bit closer...

We're about to have to get mother mappy in here in a second....yall about to act up!! Lololol

Then we know what to root for...lol Now was the last mod/strong modoki 2009-10? (I thought one of you had mentioned 2014 or 2015, but I could be mistaken). But if it was...c'mon we gotta be due soon, lolol

I guess you're right...I had assumed since we hadn't had any positive steps the last couple days that this one didn't have much of a chance... so what saves this threat? (And you're right--I know bigger numbers can be a part of a lower average...although I would like to see just how many weak Niños actually produced above average!)