Maestrobjwa

Turns out Humphrey got a little piece of that ball

Man, I wish this rain would hurry up and get outta here, smh Ravens tackling has never looked bad all year until today...gotta be a factor, lol

Something told me they were gonna do that!

Indeed...And 3 of the 4 above average years came in a row! (something else that kinda rare--hasn't happened since, well, the legendary snow 60s, lol) For this region, it's been a pretty good decade overall (better than the previous two!). But I'm sure it's recency bias that may make it feel like we've been screwed--but, as you said, we've actually done pretty good! I guess my question about the MJO was rooted in an, er...slightly illogical concern about possible climate change making some anti-snow factor in the atmosphere become more of the norm. Thankfully we don't see that so far (uh, right? Lol)

Forgive me, but...Come again? Lol I'm a bit confused by your answer...(Not sure what that has to do with my question about the MJO)

I almost hesitate to ask this because I know somebody is gonna mock/troll, but just a legit question (trying to learn) Let's just say, hypothetically...that climate change were to result in the MJO staying in the bad phases longer from now on...Would there be anything we could look to to counteract that? Or would we just have to hope to try and score during whatever brief times it goes through the good phases? (wouldn't want that option...lol average snowfall would certainly fall in the future) Or is it more complicated than that? (Can other things influence the MJO?)

Wait a minute...How are we back on that exact date as our snow miss (and subsequent warm-up) last year? Can someone please turn off the atmospheric tape recorder? Lol (different setup, I know...but I'm wondering if the result repeats itself just to troll us, lol)

So I think I may have asked this before, but...overall...is modeling getting more volatile now? (I know it wasn't what you'd call "stable" before, lol) From here on, are we going to see less consistency? And are things going to overall start behaving in ways different than before? (And on that subject...I'm wondering if analogs are gonna become more and more useless!)

I'm guessing that's why very +AO Decembers led to below average snow for the season...(I guess being shutout the first half of winter decreases the amount of chances...thus lower snowfall totals...ack) Sounds like whatever chance we have the first week of Dec may be the last we see for a little while if the +AO verfies...

Man it feels like it's been forever...(been almost 4 years since just a DC-Philly one!) And one advantage Philly has: you guys can score in Nina's...giving you more chances for snow over a given period of years! (In ninas primaries come, fart on top of us, then transfer and explode in you guy's region, lol)

And @psuhoffman I remember you saying awhile ago that strong +ao Decembers didn't turn into good winters overall...

I mean, it's pretty much been a head fake month the last few years, hasn't it? Lol

Ha...Now that winter kinda looked like what we had in 2015-15: Extreme blowtorch and a Christmas in the upper 60s/low 70s...and then an epic Blizzard in January. (That's why I was kinda excited when I saw that record because I wondered if the 70 degree Christmas in a strong niño correlation was gonna hold true again--because it also happened in 1982-83!)

Yeah I mean there were 0 duds...And at least 5 or 6 that were above average, by my count--pretty epic decade!

Ha...that was me, lol But that was really something--that kind of look was the norm for an entire decade? Not sure if we've ever seen that over an entire decade any other time on record (or if we'll see it again--would be awesome, lol)

1960-61 Raging positive NAO. 40” at DCA. And the rare trifecta of above avg snow all 3 winter months. 8.7”, 13.6”, 18”. Well I mean...it was the 60s: probably our snowiest decade on record--it's gotta be, lol I mean my goodness, that was a golden age if you were a snow lover: Not one year was below 18"...and at least 7 of the 10 were above average! (what, did we go without la Ninas that decade?) Would love to know what kind of dynamics were at play that decade! (of course we did kinda pay for it between 1970 and 1978, lol)

Yeah that's unfortunate...who knows when we can crack that 20-inch mark again! (But if the NAO cycle is decadal...and we are near solar minimum...I hope that betters our odds for finally breaking the streak next year. I say next year based on the loose theory of the solar minimum to -NAO correlation has a lag effect sometimes...or so I've heard on here, lol)

So we're essentially facing the same setup as last year? (correct me if I'm oversimplifying). If so...wouldn't that make the winter forecast easier, since you could just go by last year, and go from there? Both weak ninos...the Hadley cell thing you mentioned: would it stand to reason the process will pretty much go the same way? (of course I'd like better than last year, but...if we're dealing with this "not coupling to the atmosphere" again...I won't put my expectations past last year)

Not sure how much you can count 1941/42...The only reason for those 21 inches is because of that highly anomalous Palm Sunday blizzard. Don't want to have to rely on a redux of that! (and 1930/31...to have that tiny amount of snow to only get 10 in march doesn't seem worth the wait) So overall...that would be a recipe for mediocrity...("very backloaded" is tough to bet on...let's hope that's not the case!)

But wait...then how do we know what kind of ENSO we're in? (And are we reaching a point where we can't rely on history/analogs as much? And if we can't...how do ya make predictions? I'm particularly thinking about last year and how a lot of people got it wrong...partly because a weak El Niño was showing yet didn't behave like one. Are we entering uncharted weather territory overall due to the changing climate? If so...woe to the folks trying to make accurate predictions, lol

Can anybody point to a reliable source for ENSO history? (I'm looking to compare snowfall during neutral winters for my region, lol)

Uh-oh...smh I don't understand how we came to this. That even WEATHER has been poisoned by the divisiveness that has come with this presidency! I mean look, he messed up...but because of his otherworldly level of narcissism, he could not let it go (which led to the media not letting it go) because he can't stand looking bad even in the littlest thing. Mercy...we can't have this with weather warnings--lest people be less likely to react to a real threat!

Lol

Eric Webb found some humor in the situation...lol

Maybe I might be a bit biased for my own region...lol Where I am that blend ain't the greatest (more in the "okay" category like last winter!)