Maestrobjwa

Yeah I don't care if this is still 8 days out...I don't like seeing this. Rain in the vicinity for the game. Gets outta here by our 8:15 game time this run...but knowing our luck we've had with home weather this year, would not be surprised if it slowed down and delayed until the game is over, smh Hope this will he wrong!

I can't see how anybody can sleep on KC, lol If/when we see them, that's gonna be a dog fight...I feel a bit better that would see them here instead of up there, but...still gonna be a challenge!

Meanwhile, next weekend might be...wait for it...rain. AGAIN...smh Still 8 days out, but knowing our luck with the weather this year...that's gonna be exactly it.

This is unfortunate...because that means one less we can snow here now. If it can only happen during moderate Niños (since obviously last year's weak one also didn't work under these new climate conditions), I'm wondering if we're in danger of only getting legitimate snows an average of 3/10 years per decade as opposed to our current 4 or 5/10 years. (I mean mod ninos...why are those only once or twice a decade, anyway? Smh) If climate change is now stealing lowering our chances for snow even MORE...we need to appreciate whatever we get, however we get it (ESPECIALLY warning level snows)

I'm not sure we got any more than 3 or 4 inches (will have to check the official record, though). And with last January's 4.8 inches...we still technically haven't had a warning level event verify here since 2016, lol

@MillvilleWx Was just about to post here about a similar topic! For as much as we are disappointed at the moment...we gotta remember that we've experienced some pretty epic weather this decade. Obviously Snowmageddon was the topper. But then we have the derecho...Temp wise we have had some record heat and some bitter cold. And far as just snow...we actually did something we rarely do: Have 3 consecutive winters about the 20" mark. For me, the best winters were 2009-10 and 2013-14 (I overall loved the stretch from 2013-Jan 2016)!

In regards to the solar...it's possible this winter further makes the argument for the lag period between the minimum and any blocking benefits we get from it (as we were discussing a couple months ago. Doesn't seem like the lag period is always a given--we certainly benefited in 1986-87 and 1995-96, lol). If we only reached the minimum THIS year and not last, it could be that we don't feel that until next winter...(and even then it may not be guaranteed--although in our more recent decades, we have benefited from the previous 4 solar mins. It seems like the one in May 1976 may have lagged for a year resulting in the 1977-78 winter. Connection?)

Winters like this (that is, if things are indeed over after our last small window of potential passes) really make you sit back and wonder why we get so depressed over no snow here. Like, logically...you know of all the things in life to be upset about...this is so small. Maybe it's because snow potential gives us something to look forward to? Like a future happiness depending on what the atmosphere does. (I've said to people that I could never live somewhere where you it never snowed. I'd hate living somewhere like the deep south, lol) But it's winters like this one (again, assuming guidance is correct and it's pretty much over barring a fluke) really make you wish you could just turn off the snow loving and just move on to next year. (as opposed to constantly being depressed by what we can't have, and letting the months be darkened by disappointment solely because it won't snow). Again...why are we (just using a general term here--I'm sure it's not everybody) emotionally attached??? We logically know that snow around here is an unstable source of happiness, and yet here we are, lol WHY?

Booo...I don't get the appeal golf...lol (only thing I get any measure of enjoyment out of is the long hole-in-ones! ) But I digress...I've always had the long game in mind for winter. Knowing that the times we score don't usually come until after Jan. 15th...I have no issue punting the first part of January.

So you're saying it doesn't look like we get that blocking in the foreseeable future, or?

Snow-lover's version of a Stephen King novel...smh I hope that could happen...at least give us something to offset that nightmare scenario!

And that would mean a little more time in the "warm" phases?

Thanks for sharing (although I couldn't read the study in it's entirety because of the paywall). But what would you say the consequences of that expanding warm pool would be? (or is that the unknown part? Lol Sounds like it's saying that it's hard to tell what exactly it will do to the MJO. But what about other things?)

Now, correct me if I'm overgenaralizing...and perhaps my worry isn't too rational...But I've always had a nagging fear of this being the new normal (that is, that we'll start seeing this every single year). I mean, I guess 2 years in a row doesn't mean much statistically, but...I'm just wondering (maybe this is more for the global warming thread...where I hesitate to traverse, lol)

Now think about it...can we really afford to be picky in our region? Especially if a) the only way we can score comes via rogue event, )sure happened like that in 2006...although I don't remember how long that one stayed around), and... b) we only get the 12-16 inchers every 3-4 years anyway? Gotta take it however we can get it, lol

I'm still hoping for a one-footer this year...even if it comes via fluke! C'mon, every 3-4 year trend...don't stop now, lol

@psuhoffman Yeah man you don't have to sugarcoat anything...just calling it as you see it. Yes, it sucks that things are setting up this way...but there's no need to shoot the messenger. I mean...personally, if we gotta punt half or more of winter away I'd much rather know it now and just snow-grieve the loss than have the heightened expectations we had going into last year. Will be nice to just be surprised in a good way.

I believe you mean Feb 9-10 (and the flowing Wednesday) 2010?

I personally don't have a problem punting the first or second week of winter...For me, since most of our major snowfalls historically don't come until after that, that's fine. But if this +AO malady eats into the prime period...that WILL be crappy. (man, I hope we can benefit from the solar minimum next year if we can't this year...provided something else in the atmosphere doesn't screw that up too) That being said, I'm still hangin' on the every 3-4 year trend for one-footers at BWI--I'll ride that horse till' the streak breaks! It'll be 4 years since 2016...(hey, we got a fluke in 2006 to keep the streak goin, right? )

Actually HM did make a vague mention about something in the pattern looking "sorta like"the "transitions" at the end of Dec 1986 and Dec 1982 for the Januaries that followed...lol (of course I could be reading a bit too much into it)

@psuhoffman I sent ya a DM a couple days ago...lol (was askin' something about the map from Feb 2006 you posted the other day)

Is this similar what we know it will look like for this current stretch? (also, I sent ya a DM)

I see...so in that winter we managed to take a swing during that tiny window and just happened to hit a homerun, lol I mean, I'd call that thread the needle in a more general sense of getting a good swing during a very brief favorable period! And what do ya know...that one time was all it took for the "1 foot storm every 3-4 years" trend to continue (otherwise we would've had a drought of footers until 2009-10!) Hopefully we can get at least one swing like that this winter...even if things don't get more favorable overall (but hopefully they do)

Random question: Now I see back in 2005/06 we got that one storm that dumped about a foot at BWI and then not much the rest of the winter (I don't know why I don't remember that one, lol)...Now was that one of those situations where we lucked into something during a variable pattern (with hostile periods, I'm guessing)?

Now...I'm wondering if that means this ends up like the 2005/06 winter when got a single 1 footer and not much else, lol (I'm still bettin' on that 1 footer because of our recent every 3-4 year cycle for those!)