Maestrobjwa

I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough...

Been wondering about that period...man I hope this can be a small kink in the +AO armor...that would be a small step towards a miracle, lol

While my first reaction to that was a primal scream, I do wonder if the cold would be enough to setup an overrunning event or something...But, let's just see if that general look stays there or not.

Otherwise known as 2000 hr model runs...lol

Yeah that storm kinda broke our hearts up here...lol

That's why I'm not gonna close the blinds on the winter until we get past PD weekend...I guess I'm (somewhat foolishly) still holding out hope for that time period, lol

Yeah seriously though.....it was funny for a nanosecond, but then cold because of the reality over there...

Welp, I was holding put hope for a PD weekend miracle, but.....if that is no longer possible...guess I gotta start grieving the winter (and the 3-4 year trend. What a way for it to end if that does indeed happen). And I'm already fearing for next year if we either get this same pattern, or even worse draw a la nina. Man if that happens next year, that's gonna be another gut punch. If we repeat this ENSO state for another year...that'll be another. This is absolutely the worst that could ever happen...and I am straight up depressed. I'll move on eventually...but just seeing the futility of this winter play out in real time makes it difficult because you're constantly reminded how bad it is...and it seriously dampens the days. Hard to get excited about things...winter ain't winter...it's just awful. Every morning I wake up to more bad news about the winter and it starts the day off terribly. Snow=some happiness (during JF in particular...) I can't move (for many reasons) and cannot make a trip, so I'm stuck. I don't care if I'm ranting...I've got every reason to, atm...I just want this month to be over already.

Yep, basically farted out the shortwave instead of blowing it out...ack. Man we can't even get a little shortwave to work right now! Man I hope we can get a V-Day or PD weekend miracle this year...would love to be looking at a Day 7 or less threat by Friday or Saturday!

Indeed...I still have some hope for that scenario! (it could be the only way we can score in this kind of pattern. We just need a little bit of fortune...)

Dude...the Wednesday system next week is still Day 9/10...there ain't no "trending" at that range! (Just jumping, lol)

Alright PSU if we actually get something to go the right way the same weekend you happen to be out of state...I'm afraid we will not be able to permit you to return until prime climo is over!

@Ji We oughta call the weekend the congregational attendance wrecker...cause you know how folk (particularly the older ones) get around here if there's anything frozen falling on Sunday morning, lol

Hope we can pull off a PD weekend miracle, then (or something that week because after Feb 20th or so that's it for Feb (sure we could squeeze out an inch or two, but nothing beyond that has ever happened between the 20th and the end of the month, lol) Don't wanna look to March to salvage something...

In forum motherly fashion, she corrects the children's spelling

So are you cancelling winter after this weekend? (I was holding out a little hope and watching to see if we'd be looking at anything for next week by the end of this week. But if you're saying it's pretty much impossible for anything to work...I guess anything we'd see show up by say, this Friday, for next week...we shouldn't give it any credence, or?) Any chance of a fluke? (I know you'll say there's always a chance of a fluke...lol)

Nevermind...forget I said it, smh (I blame Bob, lol I took what he said about this kind of event USUALLY working for us a bit to literally, lol)

I swear the GFS has it out for us this year...lol

And really, in this scenario, would there really be that much to worry about? You'd think this setup would be simpler than anything else we've had...

If we can't even get a little shortwave like this to work...C'MON!!!! That would road salt in the wound (or perhaps bread and melted butter, smh). It's gonna be really frustrating if this were to also trend warmer like everything else has this year.

I know that's where my head is at atm! Maybe I oughta be more cynical given the pattern, but...I wouldn't sleep on the following storm either! Still a long ways out, but...if we score anything in this awful pattern, wouldn't a potential setup like that be the way to do it? Again, it's easier to lean with the seasonal trend, but I don't recall seeing this look this year (of course, we gotta see if the general idea can stick on the guidance until at least Wednesday first, lol But maybe it's a tiny window...)

Hello! Visiting from the Mid-ATL forum...We had a similar discussion during the Fall. One theory that was floated was in reference to a "lag" effect (I cannot remember what study was cited)--supposing that sometimes it was the winters after the minimum during which the minimum from the previous year may have affected blocking (for example, the previous solar minimum was listed as ending around December 2008. Of course it wasn't that winter but the following one that had the blocking. Now perhaps someone else may want to chime in on this "lag" theory.

Thank you for making this, PSU. Ya know, maybe this is just my brain, but...sometimes when looking at these maps that show the -AO and all of those things...I have trouble visualizing the storm tracks while looking at them. Are there any vids that can show something like, say, an animation that illustrates a storm moving through/between these various atmospheric pieces?

Still a tiny improvement though, isn't it?

Says the one who all but cancelled winter a couple weeks ago...lol Forgive me but sometimes I can't quite interpret when you say things like "difficult to overcome" (which I took to mean if we started February with that look, the odds were against us)...and then talking about the EPS degrading and not having any cold air to start Feb and such...(and then I hear about a strong PV being a continual factor). I suppose we can always get lucky with a transient window...