Maestrobjwa
-
Posts
8,737 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
-
I hate it when we need something to "get out of the way"...(just like last year when we needed that great lakes low to "get out of the way"...always something, smh)
-
So we gotta root for that, right? We need a bully shortwave to push past that confluence (or whatever that is)
-
Seeing as you posted this here...I'm assuming you aren't serious, lol
-
What kind of small change?
-
I mean I don't know as much about this stuff as you do...which is why I asked. (and really this is my first year actively tracking a weak/mod nino...so I didn't know much about the SOI. (So, overall, we need both the SOI AND the stj to be strong?)
-
Now why is that southern vort coming in so weak? (And why is the stj looking that weak?) Isn't the southern stream supposed to be stronger in a nino? (or is it not fully established yet?)
-
Is that possibility still on the table?...
-
This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter)
-
Not always the case...all depends on the year!
-
*flag* False start--PSU 2 post penalty, repeat better analysis Announcer: Wow Jim, PSU is gettin' a little jumpy--must mean he's starting to buy into this one!
-
Same--at least for my brief 27 years of life, anyway, lol (I only have faint memories of 96). But Snowmageddon is always gonna be my #1 because...well, twin blizzards, lol Gonna be kinda hard to top that!! But Jan 2016 would definitely be my number 2!
-
Top 10 storm since 2007 for sure And it was the most enjoyable to track too--because every model locked in around day 7 and never looked back, lol So there was no model drama at all...just discussions about 2 feet versus 3!
-
Gotcha. Now...the next question is...what was the difference between those that became HECS and those that were merely SECS? (Or was it a variety of things?)
-
Now I'm trying to read this (novice here!)...can't tell where the low is on some of those (don't suppose you could highlight it for amateur eyes? Lol) Are some of those actually coming out of northern California?
-
Great post as usual, PSU! Now, that portion there... @Bob Chill also mentioned this feature of waves that crash into southern California having a good history here...and got my attention. Any analogs of past big storms that started there?
-
A house divided against itself...lol
-
On Dec 1st...in an El Niño year...lol
-
It was step in the right direction from what my amateur eyes can see...12z didn't give us much of a bone, lol And as @showmethesnow said...CAD may be undermodeled!
-
Why not just let the run progress first?...Baby steps...
-
Thought I'd bring this great post over from the Philly thread...very interesting theory! Thoughts?
-
Yeah it's hard for me too...Now see, if we had to suffer through another nina year, I would never get sucked back in because...in a nina, at least 90% of the time...it's gon' miss, even if it looked good to the last 2 days. But in Niños, ya know we historically have a better shot...combine that with already having our appetites wetted a couple weeks ago (and all the misery of the last two years)...it's even harder to contain, lol
-
Huh...wondering just how much difficulty the models are gonna have with that northern stream element...(and how likely it is that we get just right!)
-
Before this morning's GFS run, I was just thinking about the time of year...and just how possible it was to get something as big as last night's runs were showing...that early in the month! I mean...has it ever happened before?
-
4 days is a long time...lol I know it's gonna get tougher for me to even out my excitement if even for the next TWO days if we get model runs like we did yesterday...(I almost wish that, if it's going to fail, that that shows up sooner rather than later! Because the longer ya keep getting these runs...the tougher it is to get out of the rabbit hole. Not to mention it's an El Nino year (if we were in a nina and saw these same runs, I would trust absolutely nothing--not after last year, lol) So we watch...and wage the battle of tempering our excitement for now!
-
Kinda like the 0z FV3? (If so, I can live with that for the time being...a lot of time left!)
