Maestrobjwa

I'm always bothered when I see those years that were crappy winters in my neck of the woods used...all 4 of those were crap (as in no snow, lol) Please tell there's something different about this year! (how were the AO/NAO and such those years?) Now some of the years you threw out...57-58, 2002, 2014 were great!

Of course! She's like the mama bear of this forum! (And @mappy I mean that in the best way You just have the air of "knock it off you two!" when we get unruly...lol)

We don't need no alternative weather maps in here!!! Lol

Is it still possible that...it could reach moderate status at some point? (And this officially Modoki, btw?)

In regards to your reservations about early starts... Now, I am not sure how closely we can evaluate/compare Philly vs. Baltimore annual snow totals, but...I've been looking at the totals going all the way back to 1883-84...Specifically, I've been zeroing in on November snowfall! And from what I can see, getting an inch or two in November resulted in a good or great winter more often than a dud... And even if it does flip after like mid-December...given how many weak-moderate El Niño years hit average snowfall or above...would that really be a concern? (unless we had a highly positive AO or something) Also, you mentioned the good looks that didn't materialize last year...now, ya have to wonder if the result would have been different in a Niño, lol But you're right...LR looks aren't everything, but you do have different elements at play this season vs. last season, of course... But at the very least, the probability that we go into December with a -AO and -NAO look seems to be increasing! (especially if the LR guidance continues to show it by the end of this week!). So we shall see (and of course...around the mid-Atlantic, ya always gotta watch with tempered excitement until the storms actually get here, lol)

Huh...that is a very interesting theory! (Certainly would crack the code a bit...Now I'm an amateur enthusiast, so a little of your post went over my head a bit, lol But I think I kinda get what you're saying: they somehow choose an analogue year (how, btw? Similar lunar or solar records?) And after that, you're saying the do the date-shifting thing to match the current season? Interesting...such would imply that things in weather can repeat themselves in a certain way or something...Either way, it always impressed me when they do nail something down to the very day!

That would kinda put us in holy grail territory (-AO, -NAO, +PNA) wouldn't it? (And as of now, what is it showing? The PNA not becoming positive fast enough?)

Up north in my forum, somebody once called that the holy grail...lol Hope it holds for all of us snow eligible regions on the EC!

Awesome explanation as usual! So in other words...since, for whatever reason, it's harder to get a sustained cold shot (or a short one that's unusually cold) here in December (why is that? Just our climo?), that's why we don't get as much snow there as the other months? And that's an interesting parallel with the modoki factor...(which two were? 2009...what was the other year?). Is there a reliable list of modoki el Niño years that goes back further than 20 years? (Just curious)

So, to start... HIT: For Nov. 16-19: "Some rain, wet snow, then fair/cold" What actually happened: Rain and snow occurred just a day before this date range (the 15th)...and now we have fair and cold weather on tap for the next several days

Okay, so even if just for pure entertainment purposes...I just wanted to start a thread where I can just tally the times the Almanac gets it right and when it doesn't! (And mods, if this is out of line, I understand) This isn't saying it'll definitely be right or wrong...just a fun observance of their predictions--be it spot on or way off! (Note: I won't be covering every prediction it makes...primarily the stormy ones!)

Which makes me wonder about potential in mid-December?...If the pattern is set to relax...maybe that would be the time if we get something?... So...what can make things, well...NOT dry during a -NAO phase? (What's the other piece(s) needed?) And please bear with me...I'm not trying to hype anything, nor do I expect anything to come "easy" or be a sure bet...I'm still learning the mechanics of our winter weather around here, and this is the first weak-mod niño I've actively followed...Each year I've learned something new (with the last two years being the harshest lessons, lol). Still tempering expectations...

Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch...

Please no raging positive AO...The few weak-moderate El Niños that have failed here have been because of that!

1.7" was the official total down here in Baltimore (city)! County got like 5 inches. (Which is the most we've had in November since like 1989, lol) And the last time we even had measurable Nov. snow was 1995! You?

I was just going to ask a question about what exactly we need to beat the climo in early December to get snow to work even in the corridor, lol

Very true...and I didn't mean to mock them or sound condescending (I apologize if it came off that way). Of course, I hope they're both wrong for snow's sake (not to rub it in)...and that's probably why it may have sounded that way! (I'll be a little depressed if we end up with a mixy winter...but I hope the NAO can save that from happening!)

So it sounds like both you and @Ralph Wiggum's forecasts will either live by the NAO or die by it...lol I'm REALLY gonna be watching it now! And of course...it would only take one storm during even a passing neg NAO to also work out better for the corridor, right? (And of course, if it finally breaks it's recent pattern become a more dominant feature...even better, right? (aren't weeklies hinting at least going into December as negative? Of course, too early to say if it stays there, I guess)

What, are they borderline like they were today? Lol (now I too am a bit spoiled by this event...I'm not sure I wanna see 3 r/s screw jobs in a row. I can give it pass for November. But of course, I know...December climo!). What do we need to punch past that climo if a storm opportunity(s) does arise?

Hahahaha! I think you just made the plot for a children's movie about the weather...lol This is going on my "quotes of the late fall/winter" list... Let's hope the magic crayons keep on colorin'!!

BWI: 11/15--1.7 inches 2018-19 Season Total So Far: "1.7"

Just over an inch here in Baltimore. Just the fact that we hit that number in November...lol

Been mostly snow here in NE Baltimore City for the last 1 1/2 hours (perhaps 20% sleet at times). Starting to here a few more pingers but still pretty big flakes!

31 and has flipped back to moderate snow here in NE Baltimore City! Can we hold onto to it for a bit?

So hang on...is it actually a sure bet now that it's going to tank?