Maestrobjwa

So, what was that you were saying about model consensus? Like I said, we're gonna have to be patient with this one. (Heck, already it's different for the digital hounds...we ain't been able to buy a digital flake inside 7 days like this all year, lol)

Like @Chris78 said...the cold air to the north is something we haven't had in a setup all winter. This time around it's not a lack of cold air available...now what the models have to figure out is the timing. If you think about our other "threats" this season...there was always a lack of cold air to tap into. This time...we do.

And yet it was there two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol

Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!

Going by showtime's post earlier...if timing is the issue right now, I'm not sure the looks we see now we can just assume to be verbatim. I'd say give it till Tuesday...

Exactly...would much rather have to deal with out of whack timing at this range than, well, what we've had all winter, lol

I think the picture is crystal clear In people's minds, perhaps...but in reality, it ain't--not yet.

Yep...and if this comes down to the timing of those two waves like @showmethesnow posted earlier...yeah, the models ain't gonna have that figured out yet.

Then you would never see digital snow Eh, digital snow totals don't really do it for me, for some reason...lol (not unless they are an actual possibility)

Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lol

If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes!

So all of you have concluded that certainly this Day 6/7 solution clearly must be the accurate one...No matter that it was suppressed for three runs and jumped...no matter that it's just one run in an unresolved setup. My goodness, people. Taking a break from here until 0z...lol

Right...Never a good idea to live run to run on something like this (particularly at Day 7 still)

And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol

I hear ya (and I figured I was walking very close to the line with that post, lol) And tbh, I was just about to give up on 3-4 year thing because of how hostile the pattern has been...but then this threat pops up (and on a spot on the calendar where we have done pretty good at times!). Kinda hard not to get sucked in. As I said the other day...it's gonna be history vs the hostile pattern. Who shall be victorious? Stay tuned!

I wanted to say that for north and west of the corridor...but I resisted, lol

Oh yes...that is indeed why I said IF, haha But I believe in history...history doesn't have to repeat, but I find with our weather...particularly with snow...sometimes it does. It has been on a clock for 27 years when it comes to 1 and 2 foot snows. Sure, it could end at anytime...but here we are looking at a threat in a small window during an otherwise hostile pattern. And it takes place on a weekend where we've gotten snowfall before (but not in the last several years, though) Doesn't have to, though...this could go poof for all we know, lol But I'm saying... for the last several years, not much that we have gotten (at least in the corridor, and minus DC's foot last year) has been in between--it either does a little bit/nothing (that is <5 inches) or snows a lot (10 or more). OR...Perhaps a March storm would give us the every 3-4 year footer--but I have my doubts about that. Next weekend seems like the one window, but we'll see...

Something tells me that if this comes together right, the corridor might get a foot or perhaps a bit more. But of course I'm just basing it on history...lol VD/PD weekend...every 3-4 year streak...etc (and the fact that QPF hasn't been an issue this year) But, it's still early...so we shall see!

And it seems like if EURO is gonna make a change inside 7-8 days...it usually steps to it as opposed to huge jumps, lol

Well the fact that the op didn't quite make it all the way up this run...perhaps that's not so surprising. Still 7 days away...

Thought somebody else said that the 12z GEFS had the whole mix of solutions in there?

You sound like you've done this before, lolol

But the 12z ICON still showed at hit this time, did it not?

Even though we'd have to give up a winter if that were to occur...if it could setup the next couple of winters afterward, I could take it (kind of...we had enough NS heartbreak a couple years ago, lol)

And now I just saw a flash of lightning and a bonafide thunder role here in the city