Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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You're fortunate to be able to travel for snow...
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Well, just for history's sake (best snows usually stop after the 20th--with very little accumulating snows between then and the end of the month)...and also ya never know if we could thread the needle/fluke into something before then. Forget March, I'd say...
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Welp...there's one to fall in line with the Euro...I think this may be the last shot, sadly. (I'll still wait until the 20th, though...just in case)
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I'll consider jumping out of this threat if the rest of guidance converges on a cutter tomorrow...It's a shame. Saw the suppressed looks early and thought we'd have something a little better to work with...this is probably our only window. Probably nothing else after that (unless we get any chance the following we get any more tiny windows before the 20th). BWI would finish tied for lowest snowfall, I believe...(1.8") hope we can get something worth an inch or two...
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Heck no...if we won't be able to pull if off now...hard to imagine March would be any different! (not to mention...I hate tracking in March--Daylight Savings Time makes evening model watching a pain!)
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So do you think this has potential to trend positively, or should we write it off still? (I'm a bit confused...I thought that better timing of the waves would produce a better result)
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But how close have we ever actually been this year, though?...Weren't the 35 and rain scenarios almost always the result of trying to make something out of a shallow/rotten airmass that wasn't deep enough to hold? (And having no cold air nearby?) I could be oversimplifying this, though...
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Ah I gotcha...Now on the runs where it snowed (like 6z) what was the difference?
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But the cold did hold...just a bit too far to the north this time. That high was up there throughout the storm. I'm not convinced it's a "major" change that we need (all winter we've been trying to will storms to hold onto cold air in a stale air mass with no cold anywhere close. This time...it's close) Edit: I see it ain't as ideal as I thought. But regardless...still 5+ days out...
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All the more reason not to be convinced this is the final outcome...lol
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That's not what this is...lol if that were the case, there wouldn't be a High to the north at all! (now think about it...when have we even had that this year?)
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Mostly rain verbatim on the GFS, but to my eyes...folks, that's not that far from being something better.
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Not sure what you're looking at...
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Man I'm still traumatized by early March 2018...that stupid GL low is burned into my memory...left us with nothin' but a windstorm...ack! (although I gotta wonder if something like that is more likely in Nina's due to being NS dominant...never trust a nina, lol)
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Was about to say the same thing. I'm curious about the EURO...you'd think there were no separation between the NW and SW at all...yet the rest of guidance has shown it in different forms. Gonna be interesting to see what it does today (for better or worse, lol)
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So you see we still have jumping around...and I don't believe we've seen this kind of setup all season long (heck, we ain't been able to get a dang High to the north all season). And if we are talking about nailing down the timing between two waves? Yeah no...what we see so far is not locked in to be the final result (and the models still need time to figure it out)
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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it? -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned! -
So, what was that you were saying about model consensus? Like I said, we're gonna have to be patient with this one. (Heck, already it's different for the digital hounds...we ain't been able to buy a digital flake inside 7 days like this all year, lol)
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Like @Chris78 said...the cold air to the north is something we haven't had in a setup all winter. This time around it's not a lack of cold air available...now what the models have to figure out is the timing. If you think about our other "threats" this season...there was always a lack of cold air to tap into. This time...we do.
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And yet it was there two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol
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Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!
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Going by showtime's post earlier...if timing is the issue right now, I'm not sure the looks we see now we can just assume to be verbatim. I'd say give it till Tuesday...
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Exactly...would much rather have to deal with out of whack timing at this range than, well, what we've had all winter, lol
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I think the picture is crystal clear In people's minds, perhaps...but in reality, it ain't--not yet.
