Maestrobjwa

Seems like the ICON wants to break us off a piece of that shortwave bar for that light Thursday thing...

As long as we have the potential the following weekend...because then I could possibly take a fail on this. I don't want this to be the only halfway workable window we get...makes it more nerve-wracking tracking this one, lol

Yeah CMC...what the French toast?

Starting to wonder if cutter may be the first solution to go as the goalposts narrow.....we shall see. (And I also wonder if the cutter solution is just the GFS trying to figure out the quicker timing? Eh, I don't know...just wild guessin', lol)

And now it goes and cuts the thing? Lolol Unless other guidance starts showing that again...the GFS don't know what it's doin' on this one!

What...it's not like we're roasting all week (looks to be low 40s for highs before next weekend, doesn't it? Surely it wouldn't take THAT long for toads to cave in such a solution!)

ICON been tryin' to show Central MD a lot of love today...lol (even as it's had us right on the edge of the line this time, lol)

While I've never lived away from here or been away from here when a storm hit, but I can imagine being bummed too if I was. And you're right...it's an affliction--and one that can be rather insatiable (and, as you, er...eloquently described earlier... incredibly jealous of other people's snow, lol) Shoot, I'm kinda sorry I'm not old enough to remember 1993! (I was only 2 years old!)

So...a possible cold air source for the coastal? (that is, if we were to see a trend toward this)

But again...is there any way things could tick a little colder in the next 4 or 5 days? Of course this particular run won't do it, but...I'm just wondering. Look, if it's already time to punt this away for I-95 and east it's better to know now then later...that's why I'm asking whether there's any possibility at all for improvement on future runs.

So uh...are we past the point where such a feature could pop up on future model runs...or is it still possible?

And ya said the CCB (did you explain what that is in the snow climo thread, btw?) is something that we would need, right?

Agreed. Would much rather start from there than yesterday's 12z cutter, lol

And really...without that airmass, all the tiny details that we need to make snow are gonna be jumping all over the place until at least Wednesday...So between now and then we gonna be seeing all kinds of runs, lol

Yeah I don't get it, lol The thing was just showing a cutter 3 runs ago...and each model has been showing different solutions. If ya try to parse details now...you'll go mad!

Yeah as much as I love weather...that math would make me run for the hills, lol Nope!!

Yeah at Day 7...and with all the jumping around on the GFS...yeah, we can definitely take this for now. At least it's closer.

Bring on the thunder! (cause', ya know...winter folklore and all that )

So the gefs and eps are currently more supportive of a cutter?

Ha...this is gonna be fun. Let's see how many rain/snow flip flops we get over the next 8 days...lol

Hm...but with a track like that...can ya trust it? I could see if it was a difference like 18z with where the dividing line was...but in this case it was a completely different look. Strengthens a case for tossing it, imo...

Why do you say that? Dude...it's just Day 8, lol If this comes down to an exact track, ain't now way this is gonna be figured out right now (remember last run when it cut the storm? Lol) But yes, as psu said, we could very well need a perfect track...and if that be the case, keep expecting model swings till err, is don't know...next Thursday? I'm not even sure the "setup" is in stone yet!

And you seem keep holding that over my head despite the fact that the last several years I have been very new to this, but have been learning year by year. Look I get it...I'm learning our region's tendencies. I've learned how la Nina's suck. I'm learning how much of a tightrope it can be to get snow around here (and what a classic storm looks like). I am learning how much chaos there is, and how we sometimes need multiple swings to get something. The difference with my outlook this year was solely based on our every 3-4 history with footers--but I am very aware that trends can break anytime (as I've said) But my goodness, is it so wrong for me to at least HOPE it continues? (while under no delusion that anything HAS to happen). P.S. Yes, I like to be able to have things to look at as predictors of other things...but I've been growing understand how much "chaos" there can be in weather.

Yeah I mean...and perhaps this is overly simplistic...but I see all those waves as dice. So say there's like 5 waves...if we can't get at least 1/5, then that's bad even for us, lol You'd have to imagine something would time up somewhere...but we shall see.

Ya I dont get this dude. We might on the average get 4 days a year where heavy snow falls. He might need to move Alright, alright...I know that was in response to what I said yesterday...so I can respect the counter-jab...lol Hello pot, I'm kettle