Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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But the cold did hold...just a bit too far to the north this time. That high was up there throughout the storm. I'm not convinced it's a "major" change that we need (all winter we've been trying to will storms to hold onto cold air in a stale air mass with no cold anywhere close. This time...it's close) Edit: I see it ain't as ideal as I thought. But regardless...still 5+ days out...
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All the more reason not to be convinced this is the final outcome...lol
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That's not what this is...lol if that were the case, there wouldn't be a High to the north at all! (now think about it...when have we even had that this year?)
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Mostly rain verbatim on the GFS, but to my eyes...folks, that's not that far from being something better.
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Not sure what you're looking at...
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Man I'm still traumatized by early March 2018...that stupid GL low is burned into my memory...left us with nothin' but a windstorm...ack! (although I gotta wonder if something like that is more likely in Nina's due to being NS dominant...never trust a nina, lol)
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Was about to say the same thing. I'm curious about the EURO...you'd think there were no separation between the NW and SW at all...yet the rest of guidance has shown it in different forms. Gonna be interesting to see what it does today (for better or worse, lol)
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So you see we still have jumping around...and I don't believe we've seen this kind of setup all season long (heck, we ain't been able to get a dang High to the north all season). And if we are talking about nailing down the timing between two waves? Yeah no...what we see so far is not locked in to be the final result (and the models still need time to figure it out)
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2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
Yes seriously...I don't ever remember waking up to a morning thunderstorm in February (doesn't seem like we get them a lot in the morning even in the summertime!). Of course the weenie in me says "hey, maybe it re-shuffled the winter pattern!"...lol Either way, this was a bit anomalous, wasn't it? -
2020 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Thread
Maestrobjwa replied to Kmlwx's topic in Mid Atlantic
4 tornados...in one February day. Wow! (can't believe I'm posting in a severe thread in February, lol) Now...shall the old folklore about thunder and snow ring true this time? Stay tuned! -
So, what was that you were saying about model consensus? Like I said, we're gonna have to be patient with this one. (Heck, already it's different for the digital hounds...we ain't been able to buy a digital flake inside 7 days like this all year, lol)
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Like @Chris78 said...the cold air to the north is something we haven't had in a setup all winter. This time around it's not a lack of cold air available...now what the models have to figure out is the timing. If you think about our other "threats" this season...there was always a lack of cold air to tap into. This time...we do.
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And yet it was there two runs ago. This time the high comes in late. So that's three runs, three different solutions, lol
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Yeah, the models got this one locked in real good...lol Gonna be a wild tracking weekend/week!
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Going by showtime's post earlier...if timing is the issue right now, I'm not sure the looks we see now we can just assume to be verbatim. I'd say give it till Tuesday...
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Exactly...would much rather have to deal with out of whack timing at this range than, well, what we've had all winter, lol
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I think the picture is crystal clear In people's minds, perhaps...but in reality, it ain't--not yet.
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Yep...and if this comes down to the timing of those two waves like @showmethesnow posted earlier...yeah, the models ain't gonna have that figured out yet.
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Then you would never see digital snow Eh, digital snow totals don't really do it for me, for some reason...lol (not unless they are an actual possibility)
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Ya know, I really wish snowfall maps didn't go beyond like, 84 hours...lol
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If F stand for frontogenesis...then yes!
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So all of you have concluded that certainly this Day 6/7 solution clearly must be the accurate one...No matter that it was suppressed for three runs and jumped...no matter that it's just one run in an unresolved setup. My goodness, people. Taking a break from here until 0z...lol
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Right...Never a good idea to live run to run on something like this (particularly at Day 7 still)
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And quite frankly I have to wonder if it might be going come next run...A jump like that ain't a cave. That's a "I don't know what the heck is gonna happen" jump...lol
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I hear ya (and I figured I was walking very close to the line with that post, lol) And tbh, I was just about to give up on 3-4 year thing because of how hostile the pattern has been...but then this threat pops up (and on a spot on the calendar where we have done pretty good at times!). Kinda hard not to get sucked in. As I said the other day...it's gonna be history vs the hostile pattern. Who shall be victorious? Stay tuned!
