Maestrobjwa
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Everything posted by Maestrobjwa
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Yep...it's reputation is already on the line...lol And the opinion will could be sharp in either direction...receiving a winter of hugs or a winter of tosses, lol
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Mannnn this thing ain't comin' north...lol I'd bet money on it if I were a gambler (but it would be an unwise bet because it's one drive by cynicism, lol) (I think I'll be less cynical when we actually get good model trends that eventually result in a hit...but the past two years...multiple failures, and trying to will a ns feature out of the way. Gotta think the nino will make things easier though...just gotta be patient. But again, the last two years is making that difficult. Can barely remember what a good tracking week felt like!)
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I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?)
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2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?)
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Now see I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol
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I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...)
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Why do ya say that? Looks pretty similar so far!
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Except for storms like 2016...now THAT was easy! No big shifts...just a forecast of 2-3 feet for 7 days prior to it's arrival!
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I mean...has this storm ever felt like it wanted to turn north?...Seems like the whole flow or whatever is flat or something (and, as cranky had suggested earlier...the open Atlantic, limiting lattitude?) And if it were gonna be more north...wouldn't we be at least seeing a hint of consensus that that could happen?
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Yep--definitely ticked north
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Sir fringed has spoken!
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It's probably the ghost of nina past (2017/18 to be exact...)
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Looks like a nina map...lol
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That one has been burned into my mind...it's basically turning into that crap all over again! Once again a ns vort coming at the wrong time in the wrong position, smh Bad fortune
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Old GFS bad...FV3 pretty good!
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Don't tell me it's gonna squash it even more...mercy
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Now uh...is there actually credence to the idea of a good ukie run preceding a good euro run?
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Nails getting put in the coffin already?....Ya know, if it's gonna miss, I'd rather know now, lol
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Looks flattity flat...
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I'm telling ya...I've been having a feeling that this one sneaks up on us, lol
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My favorite quotation from this article that encapsulates this forum: "Significant drop offs in stability and confidence in modeling begins right around Day 4 but really accelerates day 6 onward. No point in driving yourself insane "now the GFS came north!" or "now the ECMWF is flatter!" and chasing either or both or playing the "it will come back" or whatever kind of games. Usually intended to find a way to bring the perfect scenario to pass. Of which is a hard sell for this one."
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Ah but the weak-to-mod ninos winters hit climo (at minimum) MOST of the time, correct? (Even if it's through smaller storms). That's why I've been kinda banking on this winter (since the last two were pretty miserable). And I've been thinking...The last 9 years it feels like we've had more storms to eclipse a foot than the previous decade. So the 2010s seem to have had shorter spaces between years that had big storms. In terms of our climo, the fact that we've had at least five storms eclipse the foot mark from 2009/10 onwards is actually pretty good (so I suppose we should be grateful, lol). But I think that's spoiled some of us (including me--especially since I didn't start following this forum until the awesome 2013/14 winter, lol)
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Wow...so that could sink us or save us--mercy. May as well flip a coin, lol (but let me guess...this could very well flip and back and forth on modeling over the next few days?) And if we end up on the losing side of this--I suppose this is a lesson in how just one small thing in the timing can ruin a snow chance...wow.
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I think 2016 screwed with my expectations in this regard...it was SO easy for that storm--Day 7 onward was just lockdown...but obviously that was very rare. (Then again, I wanna see how many of our bigger storms went through a few bad looks on the modeling before locking in)
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So long after last winter's nina is over...the northern stream is STILL trying to screw us over, smh. I'm developing a dislike of the ns...
