Maestrobjwa

Just popping in to see if thunder was heard...because, ya know...winter folklore and all that

The power of the tongue, Ji...you spoke this model run into existence, lol Yeah that's odd that it wouldn't be anywhere close in temperatures or otherwise...(and you'd think with the Ukie even showing what it did...this would be different)

Ohhhh no! No deal, Luigi! Unless you're gonna get us a double HECS next winter in exchange...we ain't givin' up what may be our only window of potential, lol

Ya we cant waste this....may be our only chance this season. I bet sometime screws us and it would be something ironic like too much blocking lol.. I agree that this may be our only shot...just gotta hope we have PD weekend history on our side! (I don't even wanna think about "too much blocking"...the fact that that is even on the table of outcomes is truly ironic. But in a regime like this, you'd think it would be hard for that to get "too much", lol We shall see...)

Personally I've been eyeing next weekend based on history alone, lol PD weekend...4 years since the last footer...ya never know. (so I wouldn't be entirely shocked if this one found a way to work out--but it would be pretty funny considering what we've been through so far, lol)

Man ya really can't say for sure how long it's gonna be It's not always a "decadal pattern" per se (except for the NAO, perhaps...lol)...just look at our history. We have gone through stretches like this before...and each one varied in length. If you haven't already, I'd take a look at our total snowfall history here: https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiDic26wr7nAhW0HDQIHW2nC-AQFjABegQIBRAB&usg=AOvVaw3Xws59lCrf_D3e3gn4bJeo You'll find a lot of boom and bust all throughout with little degree of consistency...lol But the point is...this ain't the first time. And I'm not sure we can predict what effects a changing climate may or may not have on our snow chances here (but I understand your worry about it being negative...we'll just have to see)

I'd say...the overall look alone is enough to keep at least one eye on it!

I'd revise that to say the every 6-7 year snowstorms (or at least it has been...for again, 27 years, lol)

I'm still not clear on the difference between BECS, MECS, and HECS (what amounts constitute each?). But I am going out on a limb and say...if we see anything that can be legit shoveled (that is 5"+) this year...it might just be a foot in the cities. Based on our history, a shocker in the next 8-12 days wouldn't surprise me as much (but then again slightly surprising given this regime) BUT...obviously, we gotta see if the +AO monster will relent just enough, and just long enough...when the precip nears. I'm still holding out hope, lol (but this is probably the most hostile regime to pull this off with...and I know we'll need some good fortune) So essentially...we have 27-year history versus the most hostile +AO we've ever seen in years. Who shall win? We'll find out soon enough...

Been wondering about that period...man I hope this can be a small kink in the +AO armor...that would be a small step towards a miracle, lol

While my first reaction to that was a primal scream, I do wonder if the cold would be enough to setup an overrunning event or something...But, let's just see if that general look stays there or not.

See and that's what I'm wondering...is it anyway it could bend just enough and give us something if we luck up and time said "bend" with precip? I know it would be a lower percentage shot, of course...but can ya completely rule it out? (and I'm also wondering if we've ever gotten any storms in an AO pattern this hostile)

I hope so, man...and I'd be perfectly fine with a winter of snow in 10 days, lol But hopefully the clock resets to a more favorable regime...I mean it's been 10 years since our last legit mod nino! I wonder why those seem to be so rare, anyway? Yet la ninas seem to be less rare (of course, lol). I thought neutrals could be 50/50, but...obviously those may not work anymore. So hopefully...an actual nino next time...

Otherwise known as 2000 hr model runs...lol

Yeah that storm kinda broke our hearts up here...lol

That's why I'm not gonna close the blinds on the winter until we get past PD weekend...I guess I'm (somewhat foolishly) still holding out hope for that time period, lol

This one hurts....I'm tryin' to kinda go through the "5 stages" so to speak for this winter...but the futility is hitting me today (I guess a part of me was holding out a little hope a fluke.) Just depressing today...with the absence of the winter white, life turns grey. Even the remotest possibility of snow brightens life...but knowing we may have to give up that already? Yeah, that's pretty depressing...

Yeah seriously though.....it was funny for a nanosecond, but then cold because of the reality over there...

Welp, I was holding put hope for a PD weekend miracle, but.....if that is no longer possible...guess I gotta start grieving the winter (and the 3-4 year trend. What a way for it to end if that does indeed happen). And I'm already fearing for next year if we either get this same pattern, or even worse draw a la nina. Man if that happens next year, that's gonna be another gut punch. If we repeat this ENSO state for another year...that'll be another. This is absolutely the worst that could ever happen...and I am straight up depressed. I'll move on eventually...but just seeing the futility of this winter play out in real time makes it difficult because you're constantly reminded how bad it is...and it seriously dampens the days. Hard to get excited about things...winter ain't winter...it's just awful. Every morning I wake up to more bad news about the winter and it starts the day off terribly. Snow=some happiness (during JF in particular...) I can't move (for many reasons) and cannot make a trip, so I'm stuck. I don't care if I'm ranting...I've got every reason to, atm...I just want this month to be over already.

Yep, basically farted out the shortwave instead of blowing it out...ack. Man we can't even get a little shortwave to work right now! Man I hope we can get a V-Day or PD weekend miracle this year...would love to be looking at a Day 7 or less threat by Friday or Saturday!

Indeed...I still have some hope for that scenario! (it could be the only way we can score in this kind of pattern. We just need a little bit of fortune...)

Dude...the Wednesday system next week is still Day 9/10...there ain't no "trending" at that range! (Just jumping, lol)

Alright PSU if we actually get something to go the right way the same weekend you happen to be out of state...I'm afraid we will not be able to permit you to return until prime climo is over!

@Ji We oughta call the weekend the congregational attendance wrecker...cause you know how folk (particularly the older ones) get around here if there's anything frozen falling on Sunday morning, lol

Hope we can pull off a PD weekend miracle, then (or something that week because after Feb 20th or so that's it for Feb (sure we could squeeze out an inch or two, but nothing beyond that has ever happened between the 20th and the end of the month, lol) Don't wanna look to March to salvage something...