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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
  2. high risk
    Big wind signal east-southeast of Middleburg
  3. high risk
    We've had huge shortcomings in terms of shear the past few days (and today), but that won't be a problem on Sunday. Deep and perhaps even low-level shear look to be really good. There are some model differences in terms of timing and mid-level lapse rates, but Sunday probably has higher potential for coverage and intensity than today does.
  4. high risk
    Despite the 30 wind probs, there is very little CAM signal for storms for most of us today. Seems like a pre-frontal trough rolls through early and switches the low-level flow to west-northwest which dries things out and kills convergence. I’m not quite ready to write off the day yet, but I’d like to see an improved CAM signal in the morning runs.
  5. high risk
    I think you're on the right track here, but the mid-level flow was better than modeled. I suspect that the paltry winds at the upper levels limited the strength of the updraft.
  6. high risk
    It's a fair question, especially given that there is more shear in that profile than I was expecting to see. The warm layer you mentioned might indeed have been a factor. I'd also note that the surface dew point doesn't seem to be representative of the moisture in the low levels, so a mixed layer parcel, while still having some CAPE, would not be able to generate as strong of an updraft.
  7. high risk
    None of these CAMs are AI-based. This event, like Saturday's, was mostly a burst of wind followed by a mostly narrow band of reflectivity. I'm guessing that this type of event is tough for a 3 km model to properly resolve.
  8. high risk
    Two straight events in which the cams incorrectly weakened a line approaching our area. Wondering if the lack of shear is causing the models to gust these lines out too quickly.
  9. high risk
    Impressive storms indeed. Just not very well-timed for us. Hoping that the line well to our west can maintain itself in some form into our area, but the CAMs don't love that idea.
  10. high risk
    Around here, storms in high PW environments like today are generally more effective at cranking out the CGs. As you note, though, questions about the evolution of storms this evening remain.
  11. high risk
    Any show today looks to be a late one, per the overnight CAMs. There does seem to be a modest consensus that a broken line will approach from the northwest around sunset, and the environment should support maintenance of the activity for several hours beyond peak heating. As for Friday, instability looks great, but shear is not good. Storm organization should be sufficient for some severe threat, but the current CAM consensus keeps all storms later Friday from DC to the south.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, even though the timing/coverage differ, the fact that EVERY CAM has storms in the DC area later today was such a great sign this morning. An MCV with favorable timing is usually a great combination.
  13. high risk
    I agree that SVR potential today is limited by lousy shear, although MCVs can be sneaky Lousy shear will also be an issue Friday, although high instability and organization of storms along the front might counteract that. But Thursday might have the best combination of shear and instability and allow for a more widespread event, although the source of triggering is less obvious than on the other two days.
  14. high risk
    Looks like we may be dealing with convection for the Wednesday morning commute.
  15. high risk
    Yeah, instability looks good at the end of the week. Thursday has enough deep layer shear to perhaps make it an interesting day for many. The flow Friday looks weak which would support very isolated severe. I'm *very* intrigued by multiple ensemble systems showing potential for deep trough to our west next week.
  16. high risk
    The gust front gave us close to severe winds here in southern Howard County. A transformer exploded and caused a small fire in the woods which the downpours extinguished before the fire trucks arrived. Currently no power.
  17. high risk
    Nothing in the current or forecast parameters looks particular unfavorable, unless I’m missing something. I think that SPC agrees, given the inclusion of northern MD in the ENH area.
  18. high risk
    Guidance is emphatic that the line will fall apart as it moves across northern MD, but I'm not sure that I can justify why that would happen.
  19. high risk
    This little line moving through now is NOT the main front; it’s some sort of pre-frontal trough feature. The front won’t move through until later tonight.
  20. high risk
    The 3 HiRes Windows are notably early with the convection which would give us a fighting chance, as the shear is actually decent. The HRRR, NAM Nest, and RRFS are too late with the arrival of any storms.
  21. high risk
    The problem is that the front has trended faster, so it’s increasingly likely that it moves though during the unfavorable time of day.
  22. high risk
    Whatever threat the DC-Baltimore area has today will be an early show.
  23. high risk
    Persistent signal in the CAMs for heavy rainfall tonight in the counties along the MD/PA border.
  24. high risk
    Day 2 SLGT now includes DC. MRGL extends north to the MD/PA border.
  25. high risk
    There is a clear trend towards slowing down the front on Wednesday, which means that SPC will likely need to adjust their MRGL back to the northwest to include more of the local area. The shear/instability combo might even support a SLGT.
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