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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    I think that’s reasonable, although climo says (and guidance agrees) that the best tornado threat will be even further south.
  2. high risk
    The high end potential is definitely there, but two things stand out 1) a clear trend towards earlier timing 2) a lot of guidance showing clouds and showers well ahead of the main forcing. With the right timing, the early convection could be supercells, but the trend towards an earlier event opens the door to insufficient time to recover after morning showers.
  3. high risk
    But is that too much shear for the very modest cape?
  4. high risk
    It’s going to happen because I have a flight arriving at BWI that evening. But seriously, you all have nailed it: Shear will be off the charts, but early spring setups fail a lot here due to the strength of the system causing widespread showers and clouds.
  5. high risk
    The forecasted accumulated snow depth maps are the only relevant images for this event.
  6. high risk
    Agreed. HRRR has a pretty good handle on it, and while I'm still not totally sold on the severe threat, it's moving into a more favorable environment.
  7. high risk
    Friendly reminder that snow accumulation does not reflect what the model thinks will stick. It reflects the amount of QPF that the model has falling as snow. The issue of why the QPF has over 0.50" of liquid falling at the tail end of this event is, however, a fully legit question.
  8. high risk
    Yeah, this is the problem. The shear is good, but how many storms will form? HRRR pops a couple of cells, but it thinks that we're still going to the mid 80s today.
  9. high risk
    Well, hello HiResW FV3!
  10. high risk
    Ugh. The evening CAMs have really backed off, and the NAM Nest never liked it from the start. If this idea is correct, any severe threat may be confined to along I-70 and north.
  11. high risk
    Yeah, I like the 2% hatched. It reflects that there right now is an overall low threat of tornadoes in this area, but if we were to get one, it could be a strong one.
  12. high risk
    Yeah, that was impressive. I agree that there is a lot of uncertainty, but there does seem to be some consensus that the best shot at storms and severe weather tomorrow is north of I-66 in VA and Route 50 in MD. And the real threat might be another county north.
  13. high risk
    come visit us in the severe thread!
  14. high risk
    This makes no sense at all.
  15. high risk
    In the 00Z suite, although they differ greatly on timing and coverage every CAM other than the NAM Nest has convection in our area at some point during Wednesday afternoon in a modestly favorable environment for severe. I'd say that the initial Day 2 outlook will at a minimum keep us in a MRGL, and a SLGT isn't out of the question. The only shot at severe is with the open warm sector storms, as whatever is on the front early Thursday will be weak.
  16. high risk
    As I noted earlier, I was down on the chances, because I'm not sure what would trigger storms during peak heating. The HiResW FV3, RRFS, and ECMWF do all suggest cells in our area, however, Wednesday afternoon in an overall somewhat favorable environment, so I can't ignore that.
  17. high risk
    Soundings for later Wednesday do look interesting, but what will trigger storms? Maybe there is a subtle shortwave in the flow to do something, and the ECMWF admittedly does suggest a couple of open warm sector storms, but I'm skeptical. It appears that the strong forcing won't arrive until early Thursday, the most unfavorable time of day possible for this setup.
  18. high risk
    Agreed, and it's usually really good on this, but it can sometimes stay too cool if a bit of sun can break through on the cool side of the front. Regardless, it really looks like those of us on the east side of the river will get our max temp today at 11:59pm. Tomorrow could get sneaky warm ahead of the weak front sagging southward. The exact timing of the front is in question, which greatly affects the potential to get warm, but southern MD probably has the best chance of getting to the 70s.
  19. high risk
    If we do get some warmup east of the Potomac, it will likely be very late in the afternoon. There is a good amount of model agreement that Saturday’s max temp will occur at 11:59pm.
  20. high risk
    There are lightning strikes to our west, and there is good agreement in guidance for convection this evening into the overnight for at least the northern half of the region. Forecast soundings suggest enough instability for a continued threat of thunder.
  21. high risk
    Way too stable for severe east of the mountains, but there will be some elevated instability, so I expect some thunder during the evening / overnight, especially for areas north of 66 (VA) and 50 (MD).
  22. high risk
    Yes, completely elevated, but the forecast soundings do indicate some instability for parcels originating well above the surface.
  23. high risk
    Pretty good chance that at least the northern half of the area gets thunder later this evening.
  24. high risk
    Nice to see the thread ready to go for the upcoming season!
  25. high risk
    Moderate snow in downtown Silver Spring
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