osfan24

That would be hard to swallow. This week has been fun between the two overperformers and the cold surrounding it, making it feel like deep winter. Plus, the squall day before all of it also seemed to overperform. But outside of that and the one dusting in December, assuming nothing happens next Sunday, which is an extreme long shot, this winter has to be like a D or D+ given expectations, especially now that it looks like we might have nothing to even track until at least mid February. It basically forces us a huge heater over the final month to have a chance for this to meet expectations. Of course, one HECS could do it, but I keep hearing certain people constantly say the upcoming pattern is amazing, hyping up HECS and everything else and not only hasn’t it happened, but it really hasn’t been remotely close.

I know it’s just one run of one OP and it’s an OP, but man, unless we fluke into next Sunday. It looks really, really ugly. Like shut the blinds until at least mid February.

Ravens snow game for AFC title?!?!?

Streamers look awesome. Hoping they slide a bit east to hit Hoco.

I thought the rates would pick back up. Models seemed to have steady snow most of the day today. This has basically been drizzle most of the day.

Yeah, I'm done with this. Driveway is almost completely melted after I shoveled a few hours ago. Been basically nothing since 11. Let's see if we can get under some nice streamers. Looks like they might be a bit too far west and northwest but we shall see.

Ouch, that 5-8 in Northern Maryland is going to fail miserably.

I believe this puts BWI right at 10 inches even on the season, unless they recorded something the day of the snow squall. I know they somehow didn't record anything with the December snow.

I am just east of where 40 and 70 meet up. There were some short bursts of maybe moderate snow in that period where the flakes were really nice but it seemed to flip back to snizzle pretty quickly. It's been mostly snizzle the past 2-3 hours. I must have had 3-4 on the ground when I woke up and it feels like I haven't added all that much since then.

Snow overnight, which unfortunately I slept through, was very good. Snow today has been largely disappointing, especially given what some of the meso models showed. Other than a few better bursts, it's been mostly snizzle here and all cleared, paved surfaces have been melting for a couple hours. Light rates combined with less dense cloud cover has let the sun do its thing at these temps. Not seeing the pivot or any impact from the inverted trough this way yet.

Going to need some rate increases to see anyone get to the 8 inch mark. I actually thought double digits might be possible for some isolated areas this morning. I wonder when the inverted trough sets up and if we get a pivot later this afternoon.

Looks like a nice band just to my west.

I wonder if that norlun trough is going to get going and where exactly it will happen.

GFS seems a bit on an island with how dry it is overall.

But what will he have on his 6th call map?

That's more in line with what I expected, thanks!

Actually thought totals would be higher than that after seeing the run play out.

Wow, look at that run of the NAM!

HRRR was awful for the Tuesday storm and is generally bad this far out, but I actually think its latest run is kinda what I expect to happen and generally in line with the GFS and Euro. Philly/NJ is the place to be with this one. NJ could end up with a nice storm.

Not really sure why that post is panic room material. Never said winter was over, or that I was taking permanent ink or a sharpie and putting down the grade as an F. Mentioned we still have at least half of winter, if not more, to go. Get a HECS and a SECS from mid February to mid March and it goes from F to A. It’s not impossible. I am not expecting February 2010, but it’s not impossible. But I think looking realistically at things is fair. Unless we get a surprise Friday, we will head into February with below average snow and in a Nino to boot. Those are the facts.

Right, but basically a month into it since Friday is nothing and then we have a week or so of nothing heading into February.

Yeah, I might even go F given expectations. To date, we have had basically three snow events. We had the anafront deal that gave me a light dusting, the snow squall which gave me a light dusting and was probably more fun than the anafront event, and then the snow this week, which was solid but honestly disappointed me a little because it basically shut off at midnight and it also never snowed hard at any point. Friday looks like a dusting to a couple of inches at best. In a Nina, that’s a B through January. In a Nino over the past seven years, it’s basically a complete fail. The good news is that, even when we flip the calendar to February, we are still only halfway through winter, if that. But sun angle season isn’t far away, either, and snow that falls later in that period won’t be around long.

This "event" happens mostly during the day, too, so rates are going to be important or it's just gonna be wasted qpf anyway.

It seems so close to something pretty great but I am just not sure it's going to get there.

It does, depending on rates and temperature. But it's much, much more forgiving than late February and March. If it snows decently and it's in the 20's, it will stick without a problem.