osfan24

I think his point, and one I share, is that when we finally get a Nino where things look like they should be lined up for a big season, you have to get that big season. We are coming out of an awful period for snow. I know where I live, I don't expect 96/03/09-10/14 every year. I get it. Those years are few and far between. But especially when our snow in general seems to be really decreasing in the crappy seasons, we have to hit big on the good seasons. To nickel and dime my way to 12-15 inches this year would be dreadful.

Sure, it's better and certainly worth monitoring. This was always the time period/storm I thought had the best chance to produce before the mid-January relax period.

Too warm and the system goes from a slug of moisture to much weaker by the time it gets up here.

Even if he was right, which he probably wasn't, those of us looking for snow and big snow at that do not want severe cold. Congrats Atlanta!

My post was not to say the winter is a bust. We could most certainly shuffle the deck in mid-January and then go on a run in our true prime climo. I was only talking about this upcoming window from early to mid January.

I mean, come on. We don't think it was a crap run. We know it was a crap run. Like you said, it is just one run of the op so it's not a big deal. That said, I am starting to wonder a bit about whether the first two weeks of January are going to pan out like we thought or not. It's fine for now with the crappy op runs because the period of interest is really probably still in the 10-15 day range, but we flip the calendar to 2024 come Monday. If we don't start seeing some op runs show something come early next week, it's probably time to wonder if this period isn't toast. I also remember last year how the op never really showed much but the ensembles always seemed to keep hope alive, and we all know how that turned out. Could the same thing be happening again?

The pattern is changing. How much remains to be seen, and whether we will cash in or not. But get out of here with that 12/28 talk. No one that seriously tracks this stuff thought that was anything to be tracking. We cash in during the middle, and probably mostly, toward the end of pattern changes. 1/6 and on is really the timeframe I am concerned with. Anything before then was a big surprise/added bonus and I wouldn't have even taken seriously until the short-to-medium range.

Agreed. I always thought everything before this date was too fast/early in the pattern change. But if nothing comes of the January 5-12 timeframe.......

Must run based on the climate pre 2016.

I have to say I am more Team PSU with this as time passes. I mean, unless that model run is just completely wrong with temperatures, how the hell is that not snow? And people keep making this excuse and that excuse. We live in Maryland. If we need 4089038098098098 things to be perfect for it to snow, then what are we even doing anymore?

It's still rain on the backside when the low is off the coast of Nantucket. Alarming. Going in the PSU book.

I'm just happy we keep seeing the good looks consistently holding as we continue to move closer in time. Feels like we might have something to track once we get through Christmas. At least by New Year's I would think.

Pummeled

No doubt. When PSU broke down how things might proceed from here, I cringed a bit. I know he still said late January-February could be the real deal, but potentially waiting until then after all the talk of virtual wall-to-wall -NAO and -AO and after so many seasons of nothingness and can-kicking.........whew, that would test us.

Looks like a couple HECS in there.

Agreed. Wall-to-wall winter like 13-14 or a monster season like 09-10 would be amazing, but if not, a huge storm and a mild winter with weather you can actually enjoy being outside would be great. The warm/wet, cold/dry winters are brutal.

Storm around the 28th or so just seems rushed to me. Pattern is just changing and we rarely do well on the front end of those. I'm just happy to see the pattern not being can-kicked at this point. As for storms, so long as there is no more kicking, I think we will start tracking after Christmas but it's probably going to be stuff for early January, which is great if it works out that way. If we can start tracking as we enter prime-climo, that's great timing.

Mitchell injury is devastating. He gave the running game an explosive, big play weapon. Between that and the offensive line issue, I am not sure we can take advantage of a weak AFC and get to the Super Bowl. At least we have a really good shot at the top seed now. Lose to SF, beat Miami and Pittsburgh and the road comes through Baltimore.

We have now kicked blocking all the way to late winter? I thought the NAO was supposed to be negative most of the winter?

Your confidence is something still two weeks away is more than mine, especially after what I've seen. I certainly wouldn't be planning parades and victory laps yet. I would term myself as very cautiously optimistic but skeptical. Hopefully, it''s actually real this time.

Yeah I definitely remember that the period leading up to the back-to-back blizzards had a few overperformers that dropped some nice snow on us. It was pretty active.

I know it's still early, but painful to see these missed opportunities. Looks like this one could have been Dec 2009 on steroids.

Isn't the AO and NAO both positive?

No panic. We aren't even halfway through December yet. But concern? Sure. Did not expect a repeat of December 2009. Did not even expect much snow at all this month. I wanted to see the hype of the supposed great pattern continue to move up in time as time passed, and instead it's just doing a disappearing act. Like PSU said, it's concerning but fine for now, but we get to the turn of the year and we still don't see that pattern? Uh oh. Seems like more of the past however many crap winters where good patterns are just a mirage and keep getting kicked down the road until it's April.

We don't even need it to be that cold. We just need seasonable when it comes to January and February. Give us seasonable with precipitation and a low with decent strength and that's plenty to give us snow.