osfan24

Yeah, weird the drastic differences in qpf

Yeah, that's kinda odd. It's a bigger difference toward DC but Baltimore and north the map is almost the same. And it looks like they were issued at the same time.

Wow, they are all in. Love that I'm sitting in the 5-8. Might be my biggest storm of the season.

Just get that thing a little farther south and east and a tiny bit more cold air and maybe we try for a HECS.

There's the bowling ball!

Where is the cold air? Also, is that one or the one after we are tracking?

A few mets on here suggested something from 12:1 to 15:1.

3k looks really good. Both NAMs look good with precip. What's the deal with Kuchera? 12:1-15:1 rates are what I thought we were expecting? I would expect the clown maps to be throwing out 6-8+, not actually giving us less than 10:1 rates.

HRRR was awful for the last storm and is also very jumpy this far from the event. I wouldn't really get worried about anything it is showing until this evening, and even then, I wouldn't give it much weight unless other guidance came in line with it.

Still a little nervous I'm gonna get clawed in my spot on this one. It's not all models, but some really seem to show the DC/south of DC jack and then the Southern PA jack.

It still won’t be good because it’s a Nino, but if we cash in tomorrow and then find a way to get in one more 2-4/3-6ish type event, a good portion of the area will reach climo or be very close to climo.

This thread is in worse shape than the Orioles.

Euro looks good. I want that band north of PSU that wants to make a run at 6 inches.

Seems like Kuchera not buying the high ratio stuff. Certainly not buying crazy JB.

I don't like seeing how north it is getting. Like some have said, there are two max bands, one with heaviest qpf and bad temps and one with great temps and solid qpf. The colder of those two bands seems to be drifting up into southern PA on some of the models.

NAM is rolling. Would like to see that start to juice up a bit.

Sure, maybe that one works out as well, but it doesn't appear it would be a significant storm. Probably just more of the same. Depending upon how well we do with this one Friday night/Saturday, maybe that one hits as well as pushes us to near climo for the year.

Barring some kind of fluke March miracle, it seems like this could be it. Swing and a miss on a big storm again.

Icon is thumpy. Would be a great storm up in extreme northern MD when you take into account ratios. JB ratios would give them over a foot, lol.

100:1 ratios!!! Finally get our HECS!

Bullseye over the area. Just needs some serious JUICE.

Chuck on that good stuff today after the disappointing snow.

I guess it is ok. Maybe 1-2 wouldn't be something I think of as a solid hit but maybe that is me. Maybe it can juice up some. The fact it gets in during nighttime is very helpful.

Eh, I think we overachieved in those two January events. This one trended south but it was a nothing down here. I got maybe .3 of snow. Maybe if you were closer to the MD/PA line. But in a Nino, having two northern stream events give you 4-5 inches each and basically nothing else is depressing. I also think the pattern being shown vanishing was so frustrating because the pattern was unfolding quite similarly to other Nino's where you get a January thaw and then things reload. Now, they maybe were reloading a couple weeks later than usual, but it followed the general pattern of our good years. Plus, PSU knows his stuff and is always optimistic yet cautious but really liked this period. He isn't usually wrong. Maybe things turn around and we still get lucky and he turns out right. I would just like my kids, who are now 9 and 6, to actually get to enjoy a real snowstorm as a kid.

You got a different map than me?