osfan24

I was referring to the changes from the previous update. I thought we were already under a Mod risk. The changes seemed like the bolded and focused on the areas in the mountains in western VA.

Doesn't look like that is for our area, but that's definitely strong wording for those areas. Snow melt combined with very heavy rain, especially in mountainous areas, is worrisome.

Already dumped the superintendent. Let's see who is next.

Closing early for this, except for perhaps the counties along the bay, is so dumb, but IF you are going to close, I totally agree that you have to do it the night before. Nothing changed between last night and this morning. I work from home so I am fortunate that it doesn't really impact me and I can easily get my kids from the bus, but many parents are not that fortunate and this is a huge headache for them. At least let them be able to plan ahead for said huge headache. I really wish I knew the clowns in charge of these decisions.

LOL. Now on the verge of punting all of January?

Snowing now but where is all the heavy precipitation.

Mostly just sleet with a few flakes mixing in now and then. Untreated sidewalks and streets are definitely slick in spots. I think it is cold enough to snow for now but there is just no heavy precipitation for any more than a few minutes at a time.

GFS looks warm. Low tracks over southern bay onto Eastern Shore. Not sure the metros will see anything at all out of this. Good luck to those far Northwest folks who still have a chance. Hope you guys get a nice storm. See you in the long range thread!

Just being outside this morning, it's hard to believe this is going to be mostly rain. Sad times.

Crazy how meh the Euro has been.

If the pattern starting in like 10 days is actually real, this is definitely my concern as well.

0z NAM must be an improvement.

After the past 7 years, a couple inches and cold weather in a Nino in late January is probably going to lower morale even more than it already is

Unfortunately, when we were already with little wiggle room a few days ago and given the temperature profile leading in, this going northwest was always the most likely result. Given what we have seen with the lack of cold the past however many years, it only reinforced that. Good luck to all of the climo favored folks! Hope you get a nice thump and have a fun afternoon.

LOL, uhhhhh no. The book about storms that should work but no longer do for reasons we cannot talk about.

GFS seems better?

Uh oh, could this one be going in the book?

I read that at first as "fail line again." That shows you where I'm at these days lol. In all seriousness, I am really, really hopeful for this period from mid January into February.

Ha, I saw that post and decided I would check my elevation since I only moved here a few years ago. Elevation map claims I am at 457 feet, which I find hard to believe. Anyway, I think this is the first storm where I could really potentially see how much my location helps vs. being along 95. I'm right off of Route 40 a few miles before it dead ends into I-70.

Wasn't a bad run by any means. Certainly keeps me interested. Could have been better, could have been worse.

GFS is really fast. It's a thump and gone. Someone mentioned the Ravens/Vikings game snowstorm, if you can call it that. Reminds me a bit of that.

I didn't mean it will literally be zero but my point was that it won't be anywhere near that, especially if the timing of afternoon into evening is accurate as opposed to more evening and overnight. I am well aware we can overcome warm temps if it snows hard enough, but I am not sure a half inch per hour is thumpy enough given all of the other mitigating factors for the metro area.

Is this really that encouraging for most, though? 3-4 inches on these 10:1 maps is likely to have almost zero snow depth given temps. We need this to be real thumpy.

The 6z runs would not have been so bad had it not been for what happened at 0z that got everyone encouraged again. What a rug pull. Was the 0z a blip or 6z?

Rough start this morning after last night's great runs. GFS is much faster and weaker. Also looks a tad warmer as well.