winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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This must be counting sleet as snow? The Pivotal snow map shows much less. NJwx posted it.
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The snowmap on pivotal shows much less than the stormvista one posted above. It has only about 4-5 inches fore NYC. This Euro run did back down from the 0z run.
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Yeah it's hard to be optimistic about this when the RGEM has rain even in northwest NJ at hour 84. Just not much cold air in place. We need a bombing low in the perfect spot just to get rain changing over to heavy snow. Not impossible, but the odds of that happening seem pretty low. Last night's UKMET and Euro give us a little hope though, so we'll continue to watch it.
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Not really a surprise that this won't work out though. Just not much cold air in place. Hard to get accumulating snow near the coast in mid March when you don't have solidly below normal temps.
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Decent hit to the northwest on the CMC. Mainly rain for the NYC area, with a small snow accumulation at the end.
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NAM on the 18z run still gives a pretty good burst of snow saturday morning. Not looking great right now, but at least we still have 2 models (HRRR and NAM) saying it could be interesting.
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HRRR did very well with the last event even in its long range, so we can hope it's correct with the cold snowy solution it showed on the 12z run. But too many other models don't look good for us to be optimistic for areas closer to the coast right now.
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On the NAM it takes awhile for the rain to change to snow for our area, but yeah then it delivers early saturday morning. It has a jackpot for Monmouth and Ocean counties. Pretty interesting.
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HRRR is starting out looking good for this event. The 12z run gets at least a few inches down to Middlesex and Monmouth counties.
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RGEM just came in a little colder too. Hopefully we can pull off a few inches here.
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I've heard it used many times. I thought it was slang, but I just looked it up and it appears that it actually is real word for a small amount... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tick
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LOL. I think it's slang for just a slight amount.
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The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder.
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So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time.
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UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation.
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Rain changing to snow with borderline temps. 12z NAM and RGEM would be maybe an inch for the NYC area, with 2 to 3 to the north and west. Snow will be falling saturday morning but it doesn't look impressive right now. Hopefully it will trend a little better over the next couple days.
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12z Euro warm with the early next week storm. Rain on this run, but as Allsnow said the main thing is we have a couple threats to track.
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Euro looks very similar to the CMC with the friday night snow. Only a little over 3 days away, so it looks as if we have a legitimate threat here.
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A couple inches of snow for us friday night on the CMC. Have to be a little skeptical with the borderline temps, but it helps that it happens at night. We have a shot.
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1.5" here on colder surfaces. Extremely heavy snow 2:30 in the morning -- HUGE flakes. It didn't stick to pavement, but yeah a beautiful postcard scene this morning with the trees and bushes coated with the wet snow. Nice little event.
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Also people aren't gonna be as excited about GFS showing a big hit since it's such a terrible model. Euro or CMC showing a big hit would get people more excited. No question there is significant potential though. Mid March has looked good for awhile, and I think there's a decent chance that one of the threats will pan out.
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Rain-sleet mix here right now. Temp has dropped to 40. HRRR still saying we're gonna get a couple inches here tonight, but no question some accumulation will be lost due to these temps. I'll be happy if we can pull off an inch on colder surfaces tonight.
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18z NAM has the solid band of snow going right across the middle of the area, like the HRRR and EURO. Nice to have an event trending our way at the last minute for a change this winter.
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12z Euro looks like HRRR. Has the narrow band of snow going right across our area. Dries it out some as it moves east, but holds it together enough that we'd get 2 to 3 inches here. This is definitely starting to look more interesting.
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RGEM finally starting to show a little bit. Just a dusting to half inch for central NJ, but it's starting to catch on. NAM not surprisingly did lower amounts on the 12z run and has a light event now. Can hope HRRR is correct about getting a little more, but I doubt it. We'll be coming off warm temps this afternoon and it will take awhile for temps to get down close to freezing when the snow is falling late tonight. I would think we're looking at just a coating to an inch on colder surfaces.
