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winterwx21

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Everything posted by winterwx21

  1. winterwx21
    Nice shift north on the Euro compared to last night. Gets significant snow, close to a foot, up to NYC. Big jackpot for Ocean county NJ with over 20 inches.
  2. winterwx21
    12z UKMET is a huge hit. Over a foot of snow for NYC. Hopefully a good sign that this won't be suppressed. 12z Euro will be interesting.
  3. winterwx21
    Hopefully NAM is correct about getting good snows pretty far north up into CT.
  4. winterwx21
    Yeah this RGEM run gets about 6 inches of snow to NYC, and it's still snowing at the end of the run. Obviously a close call on this run though as the NYC area is near the sharp cutoff.
  5. winterwx21
    You don't have to go all the way down to Atlantic City to get into good snow on tonight's Euro. Northern Ocean county gets 10 inches of snow. Not that far away ... just need a slight north shift on the Euro.
  6. winterwx21
    Euro has NYC on the northern edge. Gets a few inches up to NYC. It's very close, as Monmouth county NJ gets 8 inches and Ocean county close to a foot.
  7. winterwx21
    UKMET has huge snow totals for north-central NJ to NYC. Great run and a good sign that it came back north.
  8. winterwx21
    The timing on the 12z UKMET is a little later, as snow doesn't come in until late sunday night, but it gives NYC a good 8 inches of snow by early tuesday morning. The UKMET is certainly on board now.
  9. winterwx21
    The 18z HRRR sure looks good. 2 to 3 inches of snow for north-central NJ and NYC. Similar to the Euro. Hopefully NAM is off with the warmer solution.
  10. winterwx21
    Euro definitely just came in colder. Gets 2 inches of snow down close to NYC and into north-central NJ now. Would be nice to see a late colder trend today into tonight.
  11. winterwx21
    12z NAM a solid 2 to 2 and a half inches for my area. I'd gladly take that. Long period of light snow from tuesday afternoon to early wednesday morning.
  12. winterwx21
    Euro looks pretty good. A few inches of snow for the NYC area tuesday afternoon into tuesday night.
  13. winterwx21
    Hopefully the 12z GGEM is right about it being a few inches of snow here for midday tuesday.
  14. winterwx21
    GGEM misses us to the south with the first wave of precip monday night, but it actually gives us a decent period of snow for late morning to early afternoon tuesday. Haven't seen a snow map yet, but it looked decent on the color loop.
  15. winterwx21
    NAM just came in with a pretty good hit. Major improvement.
  16. winterwx21
    As dry as 12z Euro is, it still gives most of the area 2 to 3 inches. We'll gladly take an advisory level event after getting so little snow most of January.
  17. winterwx21
    Euro still showing a 1.5 to 4 inch snow for a lot of the area. This continues to look like a decent advisory level event. A little early for predictions, but right now looking like a 2 to 4 or 3 to 5 event. Euro right now is showing slightly less than the other models.
  18. winterwx21
    After the strong cold front comes through next friday, GFS is showing pretty much constant cold temps the rest of the run. If we get a long period of cold temps in mid to late January, odds are high that we'll get snow at some point. Even if it's just a couple of lighter snow events. The important thing is to get the cold in here for an extended period of time to set the stage, and that appears to be on the way. Way too early to worry about the guidance not showing snow threats. Odds are the guidance will pick up on something when we get closer to the cold pattern.
  19. winterwx21
    Long range forecasting is so difficult that it's not worth getting worked up over anything beyond a week. The skill level is just too low to be accurate much beyond a week. Not long ago the long range stuff indicated that early January looked promising, but now it's looking ugly instead. But we saw something similar awhile back when looking at mid December. For awhile the models showed a good period for mid December, but then there was a period of several days where they took it away. However they brought back the good look, and we ended up getting a major snowstorm. Right now early January doesn't look good, but a few days from now we could be looking at something completely different. Who knows. As I said, the long range skill level still isn't very good. It's especially difficult right now because we have blocking, but also an unfavorable Pacific. With mixed signals, the models are gonna have a hard time. So it's really hard to tell what's gonna happen in the first third of January.
  20. winterwx21
    There are lots of people that feel the opposite of this. After that last snowstorm, there were so many children and parents that said they were extremely happy to be able to go outside and play in the snow. They said it gave them a much needed feeling of normalcy during this pandemic. Bill Ritter of Eyewitness news, after presenting the story, even said that the snowstorm was almost like a type of vaccine during this pandemic. So there are a lot of people that feel that snow is an extra good thing during this pandemic. Getting outside to play and work in the snow is a good thing.
  21. winterwx21
    Not as cold as it was supposed to be today. Temp here is up to 37. Will be big-time radiational cooling tonight though.
  22. winterwx21
    NAM has been the model showing lower totals for this area due to both mid level warming and dry slot issues. So if we end up getting lower amounts, which appears to be the case right now (unless we get a very strong back end overnight), then NAM was the model that actually did the best.
  23. winterwx21
    I think we can. Probably going to pick up a couple inches on the backside of the storm early in the morning. I figured 8 to 12 for our area, so really hoping we can at least get to 8. And I think we will.
  24. winterwx21
    I'm in Piscataway, and sleet does mix in with the snow at times. At times all snow and at times snow/sleet mix. That's the way it has been the last hour. We have about 4.5" on the ground now. 24 degrees.
  25. winterwx21
    Everything looks on track for 8 to 12 inches of snow here I think. HRRR certainly looks good too, which is a good sign.
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