winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Euro now gets 1 inch snow up into southern NJ. Other models do as well. The batch of precip that models had missing us way to the south is trending north. Hopefully during friday the models will continue to bump north to get our area into the 1 inch snows. A minor event, but I would gladly take a cold wintry day with light accumulating snow saturday. We haven't had a day like that all winter.
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This NAM run actually gets 1 to 2 inches up into central New Jersey. It still looks possible that we'll see a light snow event saturday. We need a little bump north.
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NAM just came in better for saturday. It gives parts of the area a half inch to inch of snow. As SnowGoose said, we'll watch to see if the models increase the overrunning precip a little as it gets closer.
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I noticed the last few years there were quite a few winter storm threats in which the UKMET looked much different than the other models, and it usually ended up being wrong. I remember it being better in the past, but it seems that lately it has been a crazy model.
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And keep in mind that's a total snowfall map, not a 24 hour one. So some the accumulation you see on that map is actually the snow that Euro is showing saturday. This run is showing almost nothing for NYC for next week's storm.
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Euro does give us a coating saturday. As Snowgoose said, we probably have a better chance of seeing a little snow on the ground saturday than we do for next week's storm. At least we have cold air saturday if we can get a little moisture in here. Hopefully the models will beef that up a little as it gets closer. Next week's storm will probably end up as rain like all our other borderline events this winter. Hard to be optimistic about these storms that don't have decent cold air in place.
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A little frustrating that the models have one batch of precip missing us to the north saturday and another batch missing to the south. We could be the screw zone in the middle with just flurries here. Not that it would be anything more than a minor event, but it would be nice to take advantage of the rare cold air saturday and have a wintry day with a little accumulating snow. Not looking good right now, but as you said there's still a chance. Enough time for it to trend back to being a half inch to 1 inch light snow event for us.
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Don't forget to use Kuchera and not include the small amount of snow it's showing for saturday. This CMC run is showing maybe an inch or two of snow for Long Island and slightly north of NYC. It's mainly sleet.
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12z CMC is sleet changing to rain for our area.
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Yeah not one time has it worked out for us this winter when the models showed a borderline situation for the NYC area. They always have trended warmer, so it's hard to be encouraged about this threat. I would want to see some real cold air in place with the models showing snow to the south, instead of NYC being near the edge. Hopefully something will work out in early March (the pattern does look a little better), but I'll be surprised if this one works out. Right now it looks like an event for north and west of NYC. We certainly need to keep an eye on it though, just in case. Can't rule it out yet.
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Euro does give us a coating saturday. UKMET continues to be the model that's most impressed, giving a lot of the area around an inch of snow. Definitely worth watching since it will be cold enough saturday.
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Rain-sleet-snow mix here. 40 degrees.
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Saturday might be weak sauce, but we've had nothing other than a light coating all winter. So even a small 1 to 2 inch snow event would seem decent at this point. UKMET is the only model that gives us that right now, but 12z Euro did show improvement. It now gets accumulating snow to southern NJ saturday after last night's run had nothing. There's plenty of time for this to trend towards this being a decent light snow event for our area. It's a very rare situation this winter in which we actually have cold enough air for accumulating snow, so I'm interested even though it looks like a light event at best.
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Yeah the CMC is a coating to an inch for saturday evening. UKMET actually just came in pretty good for saturday. A solid 1 to 3 inch event on 12z UKMET. Hopefully Euro will come aboard. We finally have cold enough air if we can get some moisture in here late saturday. This looks like NYC's best chance to see an inch of snow in this joke of a winter.
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62 degrees here right now. Beautiful afternoon. I'm going outside with a t-shirt on right now. Amazing how often I've been able to do that this winter.
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I think we still need to watch saturday night. Models have most of the precip missing us to the south, but it's a rare time this winter in which it's actually cold enough for snow if we can get some precip in here. 12z CMC and UKMET do get a little light snow in here. Euro misses to the south but would only need a slight bump north to give us some snow. It would be a light event, but I'll take anything I can get in this pathetic winter.
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Sadly it's all we have in this pathetic winter. Tracking a slight chance of getting a small amount of snow.
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He's talking about next weekend. The Euro shows the city and LI getting brushed by a little snow from a late developer. CMC has a little light snow for the weekend as well. The fact that this trended south and weaker/colder might not be a bad thing at this range. Next weekend is probably still a longshot for accumulating snow for us, but it's something to keep an eye on.
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Not saying I'm that optimistic. I just think it's at least a slightly better chance than we've had. I never believed the middle of next week or any of the other teases that the models showed this winter. This is the first time I feel we have a little better chance of seeing a front end thump event because of more significant cold air coming in ahead of the storm, but at this early point I think it's best to be skeptical. I'm just saying a slightly better chance. It's something to watch.
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12z Euro still shows snow for us next saturday. It's cold enough for accumulating snow even down the southern NJ coast, so this is why I say we have a little better chance of a front end thump this time. Right now the models are showing much colder air than we've had at the start of all our other storms. Obviously a lot of time for this to trend worse though.
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The difference this time is the models are showing colder air than the other times that they teased us with front end dumps. Right now they're cold enough to start it as snow even well south of the city. The other times they showed it borderline for the city. With those other teases right away I said I thought we had no chance, but this time I think we have a little better chance. Hopefully the models are right about the magnitude of the cold air coming in next friday, which would set us up for some front end snow. Obviously it isn't a great setup and it would probably be a changeover event, but at least it appears there's a better chance of front end snow this time. However a better chance still doesn't mean a great chance. Still have to be skeptical and there's a long way to go.
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It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through.
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I see the CMC also brings in some snow for next saturday. Right now the models are saying it will be cold enough for some front end snow even south of NYC, but of course it's very early.
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Way too early for me to be optimistic, but last night's Euro gave us snow next saturday and now GFS is doing the same. At least it appears that we have some cold air coming in the end of next week, so unlike all other events this winter maybe this one wouldn't be doomed to be too warm. Something to keep an eye on. A skeptical eye of course since nothing has worked out this winter.
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It's weakening as it's coming in, so probably only around a tenth of an inch this afternoon.
