winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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Just crazy with the NAM showing a huge snowstorm while the RGEM gives us basically all rain. We've certainly seen this situation many times before with storm threats though. Pretty often we don't have a good idea until right before an event. Hoping to see other models look good today ... we definitely need much more than just the NAM since that's a crazy model.
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I wouldn't move on, because I would still find it interesting if parts of our area get significant snow. Hopefully it will deliver for our snow lover friends to the north, and I'm still hoping to see positive changes for the NYC area. Maybe tonight's model runs will look better.
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Oh sure. It could be a good storm to the north. I'm in north central Jersey, so I'm talking about my area and the NYC area. For this area it isn't looking good right now, but we have enough time for positive changes.
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What Euro run am I looking at? The Euro shows rain for most of the storm (monday into monday night), and then a little back end snow on tuesday. That map shows a few inches for the NYC area, and when you take ratios into account it would be less than that. An inch or two of slop. Every model shows most of this storm being rain for the NYC area. Hopefully we'll see some changes, but right now it isn't looking great.
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Mainly a rainstorm, but some light snows wrap in on tuesday on the Euro. GFS is the only model giving us significant snow. Certainly not the model I want I my side.
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Pretty much nothing on the UKMET. Just a little snow for Long Island.
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A brief period of non-accumulating wet snow, but mostly a rain/snow mix here this morning. RGEM ended up being correct with the warm solution for this area. Still stuck on 4 inches of snow for this miserable winter.
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I see the 02z HRRR has a band of snow early to mid morning and now gives NYC and my area 1 to 2 inches of snow. I'm not expecting that (I'm thinking just a coating), but I hope to be surprised in the morning.
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This must be counting sleet as snow? The Pivotal snow map shows much less. NJwx posted it.
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The snowmap on pivotal shows much less than the stormvista one posted above. It has only about 4-5 inches fore NYC. This Euro run did back down from the 0z run.
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Yeah it's hard to be optimistic about this when the RGEM has rain even in northwest NJ at hour 84. Just not much cold air in place. We need a bombing low in the perfect spot just to get rain changing over to heavy snow. Not impossible, but the odds of that happening seem pretty low. Last night's UKMET and Euro give us a little hope though, so we'll continue to watch it.
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Not really a surprise that this won't work out though. Just not much cold air in place. Hard to get accumulating snow near the coast in mid March when you don't have solidly below normal temps.
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Decent hit to the northwest on the CMC. Mainly rain for the NYC area, with a small snow accumulation at the end.
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NAM on the 18z run still gives a pretty good burst of snow saturday morning. Not looking great right now, but at least we still have 2 models (HRRR and NAM) saying it could be interesting.
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HRRR did very well with the last event even in its long range, so we can hope it's correct with the cold snowy solution it showed on the 12z run. But too many other models don't look good for us to be optimistic for areas closer to the coast right now.
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On the NAM it takes awhile for the rain to change to snow for our area, but yeah then it delivers early saturday morning. It has a jackpot for Monmouth and Ocean counties. Pretty interesting.
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HRRR is starting out looking good for this event. The 12z run gets at least a few inches down to Middlesex and Monmouth counties.
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RGEM just came in a little colder too. Hopefully we can pull off a few inches here.
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I've heard it used many times. I thought it was slang, but I just looked it up and it appears that it actually is real word for a small amount... https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/tick
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LOL. I think it's slang for just a slight amount.
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The Euro shows the same amount of precip for my area as it does to the north and west, yet it has a few inches more of snow to the northwest. The issue is the temps. It's very borderline for this area, but there's plenty of time for it to trend colder.
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So close on the Euro. Just need it a tick colder to get a decent event here. Still plenty of time.
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UKMET is still warm. Have to go well to the NW to see any snow on that model. I know that isn't a great model. I wouldn't put much stock in it, but this is a very borderline situation.
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Rain changing to snow with borderline temps. 12z NAM and RGEM would be maybe an inch for the NYC area, with 2 to 3 to the north and west. Snow will be falling saturday morning but it doesn't look impressive right now. Hopefully it will trend a little better over the next couple days.
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12z Euro warm with the early next week storm. Rain on this run, but as Allsnow said the main thing is we have a couple threats to track.
