winterwx21
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Everything posted by winterwx21
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It's light rain and sleet here. Hoping it will go over to snow as the precip gets heavier. Quite a bit of melting happening too. I can see the pavement again.
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Beautiful out there with the trees and bushes coated with the wet snow.
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Yep same here. When the temp got down to 33 it started to accumulate on roads. Great to see!
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Sticking to pavement now too. Hoping to see 2 to 3 inches here tonight.
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Obviously that's not saying much (lol), but yeah it's great to finally see steady moderate to heavy snow. A solid coating on colder surfaces here. It's struggling to accumulate on pavement though. Temp is 33.
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Snowing here now. Obviously not sticking yet at 36 degrees.
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Yeah it's such a close call for this area. Some models have the heavier northern NJ amounts just making it down into extreme northern Middlesex county. I am right near the edge of that. Could get 2 inches or 6 inches, as you said. I'm going with 2 to 3 right now, but would love to get the bigger amounts.
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18z RGEM very nice. Big hit for northern NJ.
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No question about that. We have the low dewpoints.
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It's 48 here right now. Warmer than forecast as usual.
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Nice thump of snow on the Euro. Everything appears to be on track for tonight, but we'll be nowcasting as jm1220 said.
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Yeah we know ratios are gonna be worse than 10:1 for this event, so the Kuchera maps (which take ratios into account) that are showing less snow make sense.
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Yeah there isn't much use looking at the CMC at this range since we have the RGEM. It was great to see the RGEM a little wetter and colder on the 12z run. It gets 3 to 4 inches down to my area and for NYC, which I think is a very good sign for this event. Everything seems on track for an advisory level event.
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Yeah it was good to see it hold. I'll stick with a 2 to 3 inch prediction for our area.
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UKMET is a crazy model that I don't put much stock in, but NAM and RGEM are dangerously close to giving us almost nothing here. Definitely nervous being so close to the edge. Could get 4 inches or just a slushy coating. I'm anxiously waiting for the Euro, hoping it holds its colder solution to give me more confidence that there's a decent chance that we'll get a few inches here.
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RGEM did get warmer for north-central NJ. It more than cut the snow amounts in half for Middlesex county (my area). It looks like the NAM now with my area being close to the edge of getting almost nothing. I know other models like HRRR and Euro look much better. Very tough call. I could get 4 inches or less than an inch.
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You're right about that Ant. Let's hope for an HRRR victory for this event.
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RGEM just came in warmer for our area unfortunately. Hopefully HRRR will be correct with the colder solution, but this is an extremely close call obviously.
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I usually plant the cold-sensitive stuff like tomatoes in early May. I've never had a problem with frost damaging plants in early May, but no question it's best to wait until May. I'd never plant that stuff in April. I look forward to planting cold-tolerant stuff like broccoli and lettuce in late March. Looking forward to gardening season, but hoping we have some snow to enjoy before then. Hopefully tomorrow night will work out, and maybe we can pull off another event or two in early to mid March.
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Yeah there will likely be a sharp cutoff somewhere in Middlesex county. Hopefully you will not get much less since you're slightly south of my area.
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I'll gladly take snow through mid March. Late March, when it's time to start the vegetable garden, is when I'm done rooting for snow. Do you think 2 to 3 is a good possibility for our area tomorrow night? That's what I'm thinking right now.
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It made it up to 53 here. Turned into a beautiful afternoon.
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NAM still not great, but slightly colder than the 12z run. Gets a little snow down to this area now. Hopefully it will continue to trend colder.
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Not good that this is already trending north and warmer at this range. Hopefully we can get our few inches tomorrow night to end the snow event drought, since the late week storm isn't looking good.
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Taking ratios into account, I would shave an inch to inch and a half off the Euro totals. That would still be a solid 3 to 3 and a half inches for NYC and my area. I would gladly sign up for that. I just hope that the NAM isn't right. As others have pointed out, it can sometimes do a good job with sneaky warm layers even though it's a terrible model overall.
