winterwx21
-
Posts
6,009 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by winterwx21
-
It poured for 1 minute as that extremely narrow squall line came through.
-
I see the CMC also brings in some snow for next saturday. Right now the models are saying it will be cold enough for some front end snow even south of NYC, but of course it's very early.
-
Way too early for me to be optimistic, but last night's Euro gave us snow next saturday and now GFS is doing the same. At least it appears that we have some cold air coming in the end of next week, so unlike all other events this winter maybe this one wouldn't be doomed to be too warm. Something to keep an eye on. A skeptical eye of course since nothing has worked out this winter.
-
It's weakening as it's coming in, so probably only around a tenth of an inch this afternoon.
-
Another warm cutter next week, and then some cold air comes in next friday. We can hope that sets us up for some snow next weekend, as 12z CMC is showing. The models have been wrong every time they've shown snow at this range, so of course we'd have to say this is a longshot. But my goodness, you'd think something would work out at some point. Incredibly difficult to go an entire winter without 1 event. Whether it's next weekend or sometime in March, I hope we can at least pull off an advisory level event.
-
If we're gonna have a warm pattern with no hope of snow, we might as well have some blowtorch days like today. Absolutely beautiful. I love that I can go running outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. GFS and Euro have rain for next week. Anytime the models show a little hope for the medium range, it quickly falls apart. Just the same thing over and over again this winter. We might go the whole winter without 1 snow event. But having said that, it obviously is extremely difficult to go the whole winter without 1 snow event. Even in the warmest winters we usually get something. You'd think we'd pull off something just on freak luck at some point, so it wouldn't be surprising if we see an event at the end of the month or in March. I hope we can at least pull off 1 decent snow event. As much as I love this warm weather, I still want to see some snow.
-
68 degrees here! What a day. Spectacular.
-
Yeah it's certainly possible that it would be ok. Broccoli can take a pretty good freeze. But an extremely hard freeze (like North and West described) can damage it, so to be safe I usually wait until late March to put broccoli plants in. Mid March at the earliest if there are absolutely no signs of a cold shot coming.
-
59 degrees here. Beautiful day.
-
Obviously this horrendous winter can't be saved at this point, but yeah I hope we can somehow pull off 1 snow event. Would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 decent snow event. I'm not very optimistic, but hopefully we can pull something off in early March.
-
I did some cleaning up of the garden too today and noticed the same thing. Incredible. It feels like I should be starting the vegetable garden with cool weather vegetables like lettuce and broccoli, but of course we have to wait until late March for that.
-
This weather really makes me want to get out there and start the garden with cool season vegetables like lettuce and broccoli. Obviously have to wait until late March for that though. It'll probably be colder then than what we're having now. It's gonna be 65 degrees on wednesday.
-
I wouldn't be surprised if we see mid to upper 60s late next week. Looking like quite a blowtorch.
-
It's great for outdoor activities though. It's going to feel great running outside in this weather this afternoon. If we're not gonna have snow, we might as well have some very warm days like today. That said, I do hope the pattern changes so we can finally get a snowstorm late in the season.
-
The models are showing a very brief minor cooldown after next week's blowtorch, but then another major warmup to start the week of February 20th. It appears that we're down to the last several days of February and March for our last hope for a winter storm. Very sad. I know there are some encouraging signs for March, so hopefully that will pan out and we'll get a late season event. But that's way too far out to be confident, and nothing that has looked good in the long range this winter has worked out for us. It would be horrible to go the entire winter without 1 snowstorm, so hopefully that will finally change.
-
55 degrees here. Beautiful day ... time to get outside and enjoy it.
-
Yeah it's very borderline cold air. It might've been just barely cold enough to get some frozen on saturday, especially to the northwest of NYC. But as I mentioned in my post this afternoon when talking about the UKMET model (and you pointed out in your post) bringing the storm far enough north to give us precip, the problem is the little bit of cold air we had is gone by the time the storm finally makes it up to us. So we're looking at rain if it does make it up here sunday into monday. In fact I see that the new run of the CMC tonight does bring the storm north, and some rain moves in late in the afternoon sunday. Unfortunately with the cold air gone by then, it would be rain even well to the northwest of NYC. We needed a storm to happen for us on saturday to have any slim hope, but there's no hope with it holding off until late sunday like the models are showing. This horrendous winter continues. It appears that we're gonna be waiting a long time to have a winter storm threat. Maybe something will happen end of February or March.
-
The UKMET brings the storm north too, but is more realistic with rain except for way to the northwest. There just isn't much cold air. The GFS is a horrific crazy model that should be ignored.
-
A tease of rain. We don't have cold enough air in place for the weekend.
-
You have to go WAY to the northwest to see snow on the Ukie. If the storm holds off until late sunday like the UKMET is showing, it would be rain because what little cold air we had is gone by that point.
-
It's not as if we've had many legitimate winter storm threats get to a realistic range and then the more reliable models failed us. There have been hardly any realistic threats this winter. We just had a record warm January and now February is shaping up as another very warm month. Hard to get snow that way. It's more that we've just been in a very warm/unfavorable pattern than the models being horrible. GFS/NAM are terrible models that have teased us a few times, but the more reliable models have done a decent job. Follow the CMC. It never had anything for us next weekend and it will likely be right again.
-
GFS is a horrendous model. CMC often leads the way with our winter storm threats. Hard to get interested unless CMC is showing something for us.
-
And the Euro just came in with nothing for us saturday. It just has some rain missing us well to the south friday night into saturday. It looks like the CMC now. I know Walt has said many times that it's important to have CMC on board to be optimistic about a potential winter event. That model has been very good in the last few years, and I think it's likely leading the way again for saturday. Probably nothing for us, but we'll keep an eye on it just in case.
-
50 degrees here. What a recovery, from a high temp of 26 yesterday to 50 today.
-
Yep. And think about what a thread the needle it would be if next weekend somehow works out. This week is going to a blowtorch, and the following week is going to be a blowtorch. It would take incredibly great luck to get a snow event in between 2 extremely warm weeks, during a minor very brief cooldown. Our very brief cooldown next weekend will have high temps in the 40s, not impressive at all. It would take a storm taking a perfect track and a strong enough storm to pull in cold air to get accumulating snow near the coast. Extremely unlikely.
