winterwx21

The event for late in the week is speeding up so much that rain might come in thursday afternoon. It's looking like a thursday night into friday morning rain and then a dry weekend.

Yep. Since January is shot, we're now down to the hope of one big storm salvaging the winter in February or March. Getting a KU in the 2nd half of the winter is our only hope of getting fairly close to normal snowfall for the winter. With today's crazy climate it certainly wouldn't be a shock if that happened, but overall the situation for this winter is bleak. We're going to get to late January without an inch of snow. Pretty much as bad as it gets for snow lovers.

12z Euro is earlier with the timing. Most of the rain is friday morning, and then a dry weekend. Less than an inch of rain for most of us on this run. Of course 6 days away, so it's too early to know details.

Make sure you listen to Bluewave and Allsnow from now on. They know what they're talking about.

This is as ugly as it gets for winter weather lovers. On January 6th we haven't even had a half inch of snow and the rest of January looks terrible. Most likely a rainstorm the end of next week and another blowtorch pattern after that. Sad, but we should do our best to enjoy the warm weather by doing more stuff outdoors.

Super warm. Rain all the way up into Canada.

The problem with models like GFS and CMC showing a mix storm right now (possibly a front end dump) is these things tend to trend NW and warmer as they get closer. We've seen it with our other storms this season, so I'm not very optimistic about getting a front end dump storm out of this. I think it'll likely trend warmer as it gets closer, but you never know for sure so we'll keep an eye on it. If we get lucky it would be a true thread the needle event. It's just a very brief shot of colder air late week, and then we warm up big-time the following week. So we'd really have to have great luck in a very brief window. Seems pretty unlikely with how things have been going this winter.

What a shock that next weekend's storm is already turning into a warm cutter on the models, lol. It fits with everything that has been happening in this terrible winter. It appears that we're heading towards one of our least snowy winters ever. We're probably going to get to late January without anything more than a dusting of snow here for the winter. Sad, but nothing we can do about it so I'm doing my best to enjoy the warm weather by doing a lot of stuff outdoors.

No I've never been to Musconetcong. I know it's beautiful though so I'll check it out soon. Today I did some hiking in Readington. I also like to go to Great Swamp, Round Valley Recreation Area and Swartswood State Park. Swartswood State Park up in Sussex County is my favorite hiking area.

Just hit 65 here! I'm going to take advantage of this nice warm weather. Heading out to Hunterdon county where I deer hunt to do some hiking.

I'm talking about in the longer range. Most snowstorm threats that are 7+ days out on the models fail. Snowstorms should only be forecasted when they get to the more accurate/reasonable day 5 range, IMO.

Yep. We know that most snowstorm chances fail for our area, so it's best to look for what could go wrong rather than what could go right. I like Anthony's enthusiasm, but he's always looking for what could go right rather than what could go wrong and that leads to disappointment most of the time.

It's January 4th and we haven't had anything more than a dusting of snow, and the pattern doesn't look very favorable. Obviously we can get thread the needle snow events in bad winters, so no one should be saying we won't get any snow at all this winter. But the situation is not good at all. You seem to be in denial.

Yeah I'm so tired of the GFS messing with us. It wasn't long ago that it had snow for us this friday, but of course we now know it's just gonna be a little light rain. GFS has teased us several times this winter. Horrible model that should be ignored when it doesn't have any support from other models. I just looked at the CMC and it doesn't have snow for us next week.

Euro doesn't have anything for us on friday. It just brushes southern NJ with a little rain. CMC has pretty much nothing too. For people hoping 12z GFS is right, the problem is we're coming off warm weather and it's a rain changing to snow situation. Rain changing to snow situations don't usually work out for areas near the coast unless it's a strong system. This is a weak system, so I'd be very skeptical of any model run that shows NYC getting an inch or two of snow. This event is a real longshot. Probably nothing, but if we do get something you'd probably have to go well northwest to see accumulation.

It was always supposed to cool down at the end of next week after the 1 week blowtorch pattern. But the cooldown doesn't look like a big deal. Look at the Euro. The cooldown probably won't even get us all the way down to normal temps. Still a mild pattern with no sign of any major cold.

I think it's beautiful. If it's not gonna snow it might as well be warm. 60 degrees is a lot better than a mediocre warmup to 50 degrees. I love that I'll be able to go for a run outside this afternoon with just a t-shirt on. Hopefully we'll get some snow later in January, but for now enjoy the warm weather.

60 degrees here. Beautiful.

Tomorrow it's gonna be in the mid 50s. It's going to be near 60 by wednesday next week. Way above normal temps, so I'd call it a big deal.

Beautiful day. 48 degrees here as our warm pattern has started. Frustrating that it appears that it will be a long time before we see our first snowstorm of the season, but I will enjoy the warm weather. I think we'll see 60 degrees the middle of next week.

Amazing that on December 24th we can look out 2 weeks and not see any sign of wintry weather for our area. After the cold air passes on wednesday, it's going to be warm for a long time. Hopefully we'll see changes for mid January as some are optimistic about. But for now with nothing interesting to track and it being Christmas weekend, I'm checking out for a couple days. Merry Christmas! I hope everyone here has a great holiday weekend.

Not really even mid week. Euro showed the flurries early tuesday morning. Euro along with the other models still have the actual storm WAY offshore. They're still not bringing it closer. We're at day 4 range now too, so this is down to an extremely slim chance. I would give it another day before completely writing it off, but it's likely finished if tomorrow's model runs don't start bringing it closer.

Starting to see a light dusting on colder surfaces, but looking at radar it's about to end.

Nice burst of moderate snow here. Not accumulating but nice to see.

Pretty boring squall line. Wasn't much wind. A very brief heavy downpour. We should have a little wet snow coming down early afternoon ... that will probably be the most interesting part of the event for our area. Rain wasn't a big deal here ... only a little over 1 inch.